10-ROUND ADP PICK’EM

 

       

          Sometimes, you can only choose one option or the other. Here are the hills I'm willing to die on:

 

RD1 – Derrick Henry > Dalvin Cook

RD2 – Austin Ekeler > Nick Chubb

RD3 – Jonathan Taylor > Todd Gurley

RD4 – DK Metcalf  > Courtland Sutton

RD5 – Raheem Mostert > Kareem Hunt

RD6 – D’Andre Swift > Mark Ingram

RD7 – Hollywood > AJ Green

RD8 – Hayden Hurst > Tyler Higbee

RD9 – Darius Slayton > Mecole Hardman

RD10 – Zack Moss > Marlon Mack & Kerryon

 

 

 

RD1 – Dalvin Cook vs Derrick Henry

 

          Cook may have the “ceiling” advantage, but it’s negligible, at best.

 

He averaged 21.9 PPG in his 13-game tear last year.

 

Derrick Henry averaged 21.1 PPG with Ryan Tannehill under center…

 

It’s the same production – so take the guy who’s played in 62/64 games & not the one who’s played in 28/48 & forces you to spend an 8^th rounder on his handcuff.

 

Henry > Cook

 

 

 

RD2 – Austin Ekeler vs Nick Chubb

 

          The case against Austin Ekeler is built on “regression,” but even if you applied a 17.5% reduction to his receptions, receiving yards, & receiving TD’s last year – he’d still have been RB7. Go ahead & project an even bigger dip – increasing rushing totals will buoy it, giving him a top-8 PPR floor barring health. Hard to see Chubb drastically topping that floor, at best, in any scenario where Kareem Hunt isn’t injured – especially considering the fact Chubb only finished as RB7 last year despite half a season without Hunt.

 

Ekeler > Chubb (PPR)

 

 

 

RD3 – Todd Gurley vs Jonathan Taylor

 

          Without even throwing the documented medical issues for Gurley into the equation, he’s just in a worse situation. He’s the 3^rd best player in an offense that hasn’t featured RB’s:

 

 ATL RB’s (combined rushing totals)

 

2018: 300/1,365/8

2019: 310/1,163/9

 

IND RB’s (combined rushing totals)

 

2018: 349/1,568/12

2019: 399/1832/13

 

          JT instantly becomes the best player in an offense that has previously featured lesser RB’s & the discrepancy in receiving totals between him & Gurley isn’t likely to be large enough to pass up the week (& league)-winning upside that JT possesses as your RB2 in RD3.

 

JT > Gurley

 

 

 

RD4 – Courtland Sutton vs DK Metcalf

         

          On one hand, you have a WR who’s his team’s top target – with a QB who’s passed for 30+ TD’s in 3 straight seasons & was 6^th in the NFL in passing yards last year.

 

          On the other hand, you have a WR who is also his team’s top target – but who’s QB averaged just 204 passing yards in 6 career starts – last year as a rookie…

 

          Projected improvement for Drew Lock aside – take the sure offense. DK is a freak in his own right & a Mike Evans/AJ Green-level Year 2 breakout is on the way.

 

DK > Sutton

 

 

RD5 – Raheem Mostert vs Kareem Hunt

 

          For the same reason I’m fading Chubb at an early-RD2 ADP, I’m fading Hunt at a RD5 ADP – the two are likely to cannibalize each other more than hopeful fantasy owners would like to believe.

 

If Chubb goes down – Hunt will have been worth the chance at that price.

 

But there’s just not a whole lot of room for carries behind Chubb (Hunt had 43 in 8 games last year) & some of the targets which Hunt’s RB2 value was so dependent on will likely be siphoned away this year. Don’t bet on him out-targeting the entire CLE TE corps like he did (37-32) in his 8 games last year – not with Austin Hooper, a healthy David Njoku, & a recently-drafted Harrison Bryant in town.

 

Gimme the RB who doesn’t need an injury in front of him for his scorching upside to be realized – the one who finished last year with 10+ fantasy points in 8 of his last 9 games, including 3 20+ games & a 50-burger.

 

Mostert > Hunt

 

 

 

RD6 – Mark Ingram vs D’Andre Swift

 

          As a Ravens fan – this one hurts me to type… but Mark Ingram is being severely overdrafted this year.

 

Only 202 carries & 26 receptions in 15 games last year, but buoyed by those 15 TD’s – including 5 receiving. He’ll be lucky to hit 8 this year.

 

JK Dobbins will eat into the little bit of receiving work he had & Gus Edwards will remain in the rotation to steal carries & possibly more red-zone work.

 

Swift – while a rookie – has a much safer receiving floor & tantalizing dual-threat upside.

 

Swift > Ingram

 

 

 

RD7 – AJ Green vs Marquise Brown

 

          You’re playing with a little bit of fire drafting either of these two – so it really comes down to, which is more likely to stay healthy?

 

Betting on a 32-year old WR who’s played in 9/32 games the past two years & is already dealing with more injuries this year just doesn’t feel right – especially when he’s on a team with a rookie QB & coaching staff that ran the team into the ground last year, and the alternative’s QB was MVP & the league-leader in passing TD’s last year…

 

Hollywood > AJG

 

 

RD8 – Tyler Higbee vs Hayden Hurst

 

          Hayden Hurst has everything Tyler Higbee has (& more):

-        Tantalizing Potential (Hooper paced for 92/968/7 last year as ATL's TE)

-        1^st RD Pedigree

-        Athleticism (4.67 40)

-        A League-Leading Passing Offense

-        2 Dope WR’s

 

But it’s what he doesn’t have that matters most:

-        A second TE who could steal anywhere from 35-50% of the snaps & routes.

 

Gimme the guy with the same top-5 upside & a clearer path to snaps, routes, and targets.

 

Hurst > Higbee

 

 

RD9 – Mecole Hardman vs Darius Slayton

 

          I know we like to beat up on Sammy Watkins – but he’s never played less than 8 games, has played 15, 10, & 14 games the past 3 years, and just re-signed on a 2-year deal. He’s a legitimate barrier to routes & targets for Mecole – even if Hardman doesn’t lose snaps & routes to Demarcus Robinson like he did as a rookie.

 

          Not even factoring in the addition of first-round RB CEH, it’s concerning that Hardman’s role dried up last year & he was given a glorified Tyreek Hill-handcuff role by the team once Reek healed from injury – and for that reason, I can’t justify taking him over Slayton – who fits the mold of a true No. 1 (6’1”/190, 4.39 40, 40.5” vertical) on a team that’s ready for one to emerge.

 

Slayton > Hardman

 

 

RD10 – Marlon Mack vs Kerryon Johnson vs Zack Moss

 

          I see two handcuffs & a potential starter…

 

Where the Colts & Lions went out & spent top-45 draft capital on two of the better RB prospects we’ve seen recently – the Bills only have Devin Singletary as a barrier to the starting role.

 

          Even if you like Devin Singletary as a player (I do), are any of us going to be surprised if this becomes a 50/50 “lightning & thunder” approach, with Moss soaking up all of Frank Gore’s 179 vacated touches – and perhaps then some?

 

I just don’t see a path to anywhere near 200 touches for Kerryon or Mack barring injury – and for that reason I’m willing to take a chance on the rookie.

 

Moss > Mack & Kerryon