Making The Case For D.K. Metcalf

√ College Injuries Deflated Status

√ Freak Athlete

√ NFL Bloodline

√ Rookie Production

√ Target-Share

√ Elite QB

√ Long-Term Stability

         

          There was justification for skepticism about DK Metcalf when he came into the league as a rookie. His college career at Ole Miss went like this:

FR: 2/13/2 in 2 games (season-ending broken foot)

SO: 39/646/7 in 12 games

JR: 26/569/5 in 7 games (season-ending cervical neck fracture)

*early declare*

          Naturally, the focus was on other WR’s as we started the beginning of the 2019 pre-draft process…

& then this happened…

& the DK hype-train started to build steam – quickly…

√ Freak Athlete

          Just a couple weeks after that photo surfaced, DK scorched the combine with a 4.33 40 & 40.5” vertical while casually throwing up as many bench reps as offensive lineman (27)… at 6’3”/228…

At that point, the hype-train damn near ran off the tracks & we were all left wondering – who in the world is DK Metcalf?

          The inevitable effect was that we ended up seeing more than a few NFL mock drafts with DK being projected as high as the top-5…

So when he “slipped” all the way out of the first round & many of us were already in bed sleeping when he got picked by SEA with the last pick in the second round, it gave us reason for pause.

Questions about his injury history resurfaced.

& doubts about his statistical upside in a “run-first” offense crept in…

Then he went out & seized the starting job & put up oh you know just a cool 4 receptions for 89 yards in his first game as a pro…

At that point, anyone who’d been disregarding him was forced to face reality – DK Metcalf is here to stay.

√ NFL Bloodline

         

          If you didn’t know, D.K. is the son of former Bears OL Terrence Metcalf – a 7-year NFL vet & first-team All-American at Ole Miss himself.

You can read more about the influence Terrence had on DK as a kid here.

Apparently, Terrance had DK squatting 100 pounds when he was just 5 years old…

That rare combination of NFL bloodline + freakish athleticism can = marvelous results (see McCaffery & Mahomes)…

Could DK be next?

          We saw it in spurts at Ole Miss, on full display at the combine, & come full circle in his rookie year, which by the way, was historically good…

√ Rookie Production

    

          Here’s the list of rookie WR’s (since 1990) with at least 58 receptions, 900 yards, & 7 TD’s:

          Michael Clayton is the rare WR to disappear after that kind of rookie success & even the other 3 “busts” (Johnson, Williams, & Benjamin) had decent success for a few years.

The rest:

Juju

McLaurin

Colston

Galloway

Keenan

Evans

AJG

MT

OBJ

Moss

Boldin

Now go look at what Year 2 looked like for those players…

It’s glorious…

         

          DK produced from Day 1 as a rookie, but in the second-half of his rookie year particularly, he balled like a 75-reception/1,150-yard WR would…

Over the last 8 regular season games & 2 playoff games, he caught:

46/717/4

That’s a 16-game pace of:

73/1147/6

That pace is 100% replicable & should be considered his Year 2 floor with no new target competition added in 2020, & considering DK actually caught 7 TD’s last year & not 6, I’m willing to bet he hits double-digits in Year 2.

That’d give him 73/1147/10 going by his second-half-of-rookie-year receiving-pace.

73/1147/10 = WR10 last year.

√ Target Share

          Speaking of target competition – there is none.

Tyler Lockett had a career high 110 targets last year (21.3% market share)

DK had 100 (19.4% market share)

After that…

Jacob Hollister – 59 (11.4%)

Chris Carson – 47 (9.1%)

David Moore – 34 (6.6%)

Jaron Brown – 28 (5.4%)

Will Dissly – 27 (5.2%)

35-year-old Greg Olsen slots in over Hollister, Carson’s health is in question, & Dissly is coming off his second season-ending injury in two years (torn achilles)…

The only WR’s they brought in (Phillip Dorsett & 6^th rounder Freddie Swain) are more likely to replace Moore or Brown than anything.

There’s no reason Lockett & DK can’t both see 125 targets apiece this year & finish with a 21-22% market share.

Leaving all other roles the same, it’d take Russ going from 516 attempts to 556 to get DK & Lockett those 40 extra targets.

With the best WR duo he’s ever had, a RB corps that has more RB’s in the rehab room than on the field, & the fact that he’s in his prime as a passer, I expect Russ to very likely surpass 553 for a new career high.

Even if he doesn’t, for all the concerns about DK’s statistical upside in a “run-first” offense, Russ was 6^th in the NFL in passing yards last year & 3^rd in TD’s on “just” his 516 attempts. He’s also thrown for 30+ TD’s in 3 straight seasons.

√ Elite QB

          Being tethered to Russell Wilson is perhaps the biggest selling point for DK in dynasty formats – besides the freakish athleticism, youth, NFL bloodline, & historically great rookie production…

Because Russ is 31 & DK is 22…

& based on the team’s history of paying their cornerstone players (Russ, Marshawn, Wagner, Sherman, Chancellor…) we can expect DK to sign an extension before ever even sniffing the FA market.

That = a legitimate shot at Russ-to-DK magic for the next decade.

         

          There’s only one answer here, and it’s:

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY.

Today, tomorrow, here, or there, in a train or on a plane, buy DK Metcalf wherever you can. Best-ball, redraft, or dynasty, the freak that is DK Metcalf is about to be set free.