Rules of Trading

          The best owners are willing to pull the trigger at any moment, but it’s generally best to wait until after Week 2 before you start putting out offers. People aren’t generally going to panic after just one week, and they generally aren’t in a position for you to capitalize on. People may be concerned about their teams after Week 1, but you will be operating out of a stronger position if you have two weeks worth of concern to hold against them. The holes on people’s rosters will become clearer and more opportunities for you to capitalize on will present themselves. But, if you are going to start looking into trades now, it’s best to keep these things in mind:

1)    Sell HOT. Buy COLD.

As a general rule of thumb, don’t try to trade your cold or injured players. If a guy is sucking so bad that you don’t want him anymore, that means that everyone else in the league probably doesn’t want him either. When you offer cold players in trades you are generally tipping your hand that you are desperate to have them off your team.

Sure, it makes sense to get rid of under-performing players, but nobody is going to give you anything of value when that player is cold. Wait until he has a good game and then try to maximize his value in a trade. If you put out offers with him involved now, all you are going to do is sabotage your future negotiations by showing how desperate you are to get rid of him.

On the flip-side, don’t try to acquire elite talent until they are cold. It’s hard enough swinging trades for the top players. Make sure you are using recency bias to your advantage.

2)    Long-Term > Short-Term

          Sammy Watkins was great in Week 1 and Davante Adams was terrible, but what are the chances Watkins actually finishes the year with more fantasy points? Austin Ekeler was similarly great, but what are the chances he scores more than Nick Chubb or Todd Gurley over the next 15 games? Nobody would blame you for holding onto Watkins or Ekeler, but savvy owners are willing to upgrade them while their value is at its absolute highest. This is one of the main things to keep in mind when assessing your roster. Look at your hottest players – particularly the players who are performing at unsustainable rates – and try to upgrade them for guys who have been slightly less productive so far but you can be fairly sure will score more points over the rest of the year. This isn’t to say you should trade every productive player on your team, but you should certainly be willing to upgrade them if the opportunity is there. Which brings us to the next point…

3)    Know when to strike on frustrated owners.

          Some players are going to have great years, but haven’t had great starts. Guys like Davante Adams, Mike Evans & Juju are all likely to finish as top-10 receivers on the year, yet none rank higher than 39^th at the position through Week 1. Owners who drafted Joe Mixon or David Montgomery have likely been hindered by their slow starts and will perhaps find themselves sitting at 0-2 after next week. Try to target studs who have stacked two poor games to start the year, particularly on fantasy teams with losing records. There’s usually a short window at the beginning of the year to acquire struggling stars before the law of averages kicks in and they heat back up.

         

          Don’t bother trying to put together a package for a hot team with a good record. Wait for them to hit a bump in the road before you strike. If you send out offers too early to a team that doesn’t need it, and they reject it, you will be sabotaging your future negotiations. People remember the trades they reject and will be more likely to reject that same offer in the future – even if the offer makes sense at that time. Besides that, just remember –

4)    You want to GET the best player involved.

          Unless it’s closing in on playoff season, and you are on the outside looking in, then you should be trading up and not down. This means that you shouldn’t trade a great player to get 2 or 3 good players – that strategy only makes sense if you have multiple holes to fill on your roster and have no time left to fill them with waiver additions. With so much time left in the year, you still have time to make meaningful waiver additions to fill you team’s holes.

          When trading, focus on acquiring elite talent, because those players are not easily replaceable or found often on waivers. Keep this in mind and don’t be afraid to package multiple good players if it means you get back one great player. Sure, it might seem like a lot to give up 3 solid players for just one great one, but you are a lot more likely to find a replacement for good production from a waiver-wire addition than you are to find elite production off waivers. 3 for 1’s are the kinds of trades championship teams are made of.