Making the Case for TE-Early AND Late In Your 2020 Redrafts

          The most compelling case for TE-early & late is the simple fact that it is BY FAR the scarcest position to find production at, even scarcer than RB. Even though TE is deeper than ever, it’s still nowhere near a deep market.

In every tier, supply ≠ demand.

Last year:

114 players scored 150+ fantasy points:

29 QB’s
31 RB’s

45 WR’s

9 TE’s

In 12-team leagues, that’s:

2 QB’s apiece & a 3^rd for every other team.

Nearly 3 RB’s apiece.

Nearly 4 WR’s apiece.

But not enough TE’s for everyone to get one…

85 players scored 190+ fantasy points:

28 QB’s

21 RB’s

30 WR’s

6 TE’s

In 12-team leagues, that’s:

More than enough QB’s & WR’s for 2 per-team
Almost enough RB’s for 2 per-team

But only enough TE’s for half the league to get one…

59 players scored 220+ fantasy points:

24 QB’s

13 RB’s

19 WR’s

3 TE’s (!!)

(Kelce/Kittle/Waller)

Do you see where this is going??

(TE EARLY!)

By going RB in RD1 (and possibly also RD2), you can secure one (or two) of those 13 RB’s, be one of the few teams to set themselves apart at TE with one of their first 3 picks, & “settle” for gobbling up the sturdy mid-round WR’s & late-round QB’s.

This strategy is ideal because it allows you to have the most important assets in the smallest (& most valuable) markets (RB & TE), with the deepest & easiest markets to trade up in (WR & QB) being your weakest positions going into the season.

You can trade up the QB & WR ladders in-season for a half-eaten bagel & your loose pocket change.

Trading up the RB & TE ladder will cost you an arm, a leg, & the shirt off your back.

Which position would you rather find yourself in??

This year, whether it’s:

Kelce/Kittle RD2

Andrews RD3

Waller RD4

Ertz RD5

Or Henry/Engram RD6

You should be prioritizing getting one of the clear top-7 TE’s who are projected to give you a legitimate advantage at the position.

Getting one of these TE’s gives you a legit chance at cornering the trade market if you hit on your TE-late target/a waiver addition early in the year.

Kelce/Kittle make sense in RD2 if you’re comfortable getting your RB2 & RB3 in RD3 or later.

Mark Andrews makes sense in RD3 if you don’t see a huge gap between him & Kelce/Kittle and/or if you’re intent on starting off RB/RB.

Waller makes sense in RD4 if a solid RB/WR falls to you in RD3, or if someone snipes Andrews.

Ertz makes sense in RD5 if you want to gobble up RB’s & a WR (or two) through RD4.

Personally, this is my cut-off point, as I don’t particularly trust Henry’s or Engram’s health, but they make sense in RD6 if you don’t see a huge gap between them & Ertz & would rather grab another RB, WR, or your first QB in RD5.

After those 7 TE’s it’s a guessing game.

There are 15 TE’s popular TE-late targets this year:

(In order of Sleeper ADP)

Higbee, Jared Cook, Hurst, Hooper, Fant, Gesicki, Hockenson, Jonnu, Jarwin, Ebron, Goedert, Doyle, Herndon, Knox, & Ian Thomas.

We love names this time of the year, but it’s a major risk assuming you’ll actually hit on one of these TE-late targets, even if you draft two of them…

& that’s assuming you won’t get sniped & will actually be able to draft the late-round TE’s you’re targeting…

Everyone wants to believe they’re going to find the next Mark Andrews or Darren Waller with a TE-late draft strategy.

But for every hit last year, there were 2-3 misses.

According to Sleeper’s ADP, Vance McDonald (75.1) & David Njoku (83.5) were going before Austin Hooper (95.4)

All of those guys, Delanie Walker (115.4), Eric Ebron (117.5), & TJ Hockenson (126.1) were going before Mark Andrews (142.1)

All of those guys, Trey Burton (152.4), & Kyle Rudolph (154.9) were going before Darren Waller (155.8)

Chris Herndon (157.3) & Jordan Reed (158) were also swing & misses at similar ADP’s.

Noah Fant (158.1) was the last “TE-late” target with an ADP below 276 & except for 2 games, he was a swing & miss as well.

That’s 13 TE’s who were taken in the “TE-late” range last year & each (minus maybe Rudolph) had a case for a legit break-out (or bounce-back) year.

We hit on 3 of them (!!)

~ 25% Hit Rate

We were just as likely to draft a Njoku/Herndon or McDonald/Burton stack as we were to end up with either Hooper, Andrews, or Waller.

Even if we assume we’re getting a Hooper, Andrews, and Waller-level breakout from 3 TE’s in each year’s batch (ambitious, at best), that means there’s going to be more fantasy teams who miss on the TE-late strategy than those who hit, and that’s assuming 2 of those 3 breakouts aren’t drafted by the same fantasy team.

By starting off your draft with a top-TE early, you give yourself more leeway to miss on your TE-late target (which ~75% of TE-late picks will), as well as the potential to corner the TE market if your TE-late target hits.

Imagine what you could have done with Travis Kelce & Mark Andrews on the trade market last year…

Or Kittle early & Waller late…

Here’s an anecdote of this very scenario which propelled me to a Championship & Total Points Title last year:

RB (Zeke) RD1
Kelce RD2

WR/RB/RB/WR next

2QB’s RD7/8

Andrews late.

By Week 4, I had a clear TE trade chip. Traded Andrews & Jarvis (my 6^th RD pick at WR) to a TE-needy team for Chris Godwin (after Week 4), & the rest is history.

Drafting Lamar as my QB1 in that league also probably helped, but the point remains – I hit on TE-early & late, used one TE as a trade-chip & turned one of my mid-round WR’s into a stud, all while maintaining my advantages at RB & TE.

Similarly, my downfall in another league was drafting Hunter Henry RD5 & no second TE. When he went down I figured IR & dropped him. It left me scrambling at TE & in a position where I couldn’t refuse Dalvin Cook & Evan Engram (from an owner who also had Waller!!) for my CMC.

Engram got hurt a week after the trade (or at least it felt like it was only one week later) & my team struggled to fill the TE hole all year. Jacob Hollister (7 pts) was my starting TE in my Week 14 first-round exit.

In both situations, having multiple top-TE’s allowed incredible leverage on the trade market, particularly early in the year.

I’m sure teams who took Kittle early & Waller late last year can tell you similar stories about how they were able to exploit the situation…