Why You Should Always Counter 1-For-1 Trades of the Same Position

          Let’s take a minute to talk about 1-for-1 trades of the same position. When someone offers you a 1-for-1 and both players play the same position, what they are saying to you is, “I think you have the better player, and you should swap him with me for free.” Think of it in numbers. They are essentially saying “I have a player worth 9. And you have a player worth 10. Wanna swap?” They are essentially trying to rip you off – plain and simple.

          Even if you think that they are wrong, and that they are offering you the better player in the 1-for-1, why would you let them know that? You may like the offer and think that your player is the 9 and that their player is the 10, but why would you let them know that? Play stupid. Agree with them.

          Never take a 1-for-1 offer you like without first asking for more. Your response to 1-for-1 offers should always be, “You are right, I have the better player. My guy is a 10, and your guy is a 9, which is obviously why you want to swap them, so why should I swap them for free? Why should I give up a 10 for a 9 when you won’t include anything additional to make it worth my while?”

          If they refuse to budge and include more, you can always settle for the original 1-for-1 that you believed would be a win for you. But at least ask for more first!

          One example of this I have already seen this year was a 1-for-1 trade: Leonard Fournette for Joe Mixon. This trade happened between two of my friends after Week 2. The team with Joe Mixon offered the team with Fournette a 1-for-1 swap. In doing so, they were sending the message that “I think Fournette is the better player – the 10, and I would rather have him on my team than Mixon, who I think is a 9.”

          The team on the receiving end of the offer mistakenly disagreed with him. He accepted the offer immediately, which was essentially saying “I disagree. I think you are wrong, and that Mixon is the 10 and Fournette is the 9, so I’ll do the swap.”

          And that’s where he cost himself an opportunity to maximize the trade into something more beneficial.

          He should have played stupid and agreed. His response, regardless of what he actually believed, should have been that “I agree, Fournette is better than Mixon, he’s a 10, and Mixon is a 9, so why would I swap him with you for free? To give up a lesser player and get the better one, I’d expect you should have to give up something of value, no?”

          Even though the team receiving the offer thought Mixon was the better player of the two, the team proposing the offer obviously didn’t. So why not capitalize on that fact?

          He should have asked the offering team to give him Mixon and a small upgrade somewhere else if he wanted to acquire the “better” player in Fournette. Worst case, if the offering team refused to include more, the team on the receiving end of the offer could have just reneged on their request for more, and said, fine, I’ll do the 1-for-1. But accepting a 1-for-1 of the same position without asking for more is only costing yourself an opportunity to capitalize on the fact that the team who offered it to you believes that you have the more valuable asset. You should always be using that to your advantage.

Staying One Step Ahead: Waiver Edition

          We’re going into Week 3 now and the waiver wire is starting to dry up. Each week, there will be a few attractive players that become available, but, if you play in a league with a waiver system, then you probably won’t have a shot at them unless you have one of the worst records in your league. If you want to acquire some of the more valuable free agents, you must plan one step ahead.

          When your record prevents you from acquiring the top free agents each week, the next best thing is to stash players who could become valuable down the road. You want to target players returning from injuries & suspensions, as well as players who are playing well on a limited amount of touches.  

Players who fit the mold this year are Golden Tate, Chris Herndon, and Kareem Hunt. These 3 guys would be on nearly 100% of rosters if they weren’t suspended, yet all 3 are currently available in a large number of leagues. Most people will try to claim these guys a week early and let them sit on the bench for a week before they return, which means that if you want to stay ahead, you should be targeting these players 2 or even 3 weeks before their return.

Tate returns in Week 5, and it’s likely that just about everyone in your league will be smart enough to put in a claim for him a week early – next week, before Week 4. That means that if you want to secure him on your roster, you should look to add him this week and let him sit on your bench for the remaining two games of his suspension.

Herndon is back in Week 6. If you find yourself in desperate need for a TE, you should look to acquire him after this week, because most teams will put in a claim for him after Week 4 with the idea of letting him sit on their benches during Week 5.

Kareem Hunt returns in Week 10. People are going to be willing to let a player of his upside sit on their benches for weeks before his return, if not the entire season, which means that you should be looking to add him soon if you want a legitimate chance at snagging him.

In addition to those 3 suspended players, there are also some injured players who may have been released. If there’s nothing on your waiver wire, but you have a guy to drop, consider taking a look to see if anyone dropped injured players like Drew Brees, Tevin Coleman, Hunter Henry, Sam Darnold, Sterling Shepard, or Michael Gallup. Stashing talented players like these guys could have a major payoff down the road.

Another way to stay ahead of the game is to target players who are playing well, but not playing a lot – players who could become quite valuable if they start to see the ball more. This strategy is paying dividends to the savvy fantasy owners who picked up Carlos Hyde after he took 10 carries for 83 yards in Week 1. Now Hyde’s touching the ball more and looking like a solid flex option.

Guys who are playing well right now but aren’t touching the ball much are guys like Raheem Mostert, Rex Burkhead, Alexander Mattison, Jordan Wilkins, Preston Williams, Marquise Goodwin, KeeSean Johnson, Parris Campbell, AJ Brown, Tre’Quan Smith, Diontae Johnson, Gerald Everett, and Taysom Hill. It might take an injury for most of these guys to see an uptick in volume, but all of these guys are worth a stash due to what they’ve been able to do with limited touches.

Rules of Trading

          The best owners are willing to pull the trigger at any moment, but it’s generally best to wait until after Week 2 before you start putting out offers. People aren’t generally going to panic after just one week, and they generally aren’t in a position for you to capitalize on. People may be concerned about their teams after Week 1, but you will be operating out of a stronger position if you have two weeks worth of concern to hold against them. The holes on people’s rosters will become clearer and more opportunities for you to capitalize on will present themselves. But, if you are going to start looking into trades now, it’s best to keep these things in mind:

1)    Sell HOT. Buy COLD.

As a general rule of thumb, don’t try to trade your cold or injured players. If a guy is sucking so bad that you don’t want him anymore, that means that everyone else in the league probably doesn’t want him either. When you offer cold players in trades you are generally tipping your hand that you are desperate to have them off your team.

Sure, it makes sense to get rid of under-performing players, but nobody is going to give you anything of value when that player is cold. Wait until he has a good game and then try to maximize his value in a trade. If you put out offers with him involved now, all you are going to do is sabotage your future negotiations by showing how desperate you are to get rid of him.

On the flip-side, don’t try to acquire elite talent until they are cold. It’s hard enough swinging trades for the top players. Make sure you are using recency bias to your advantage.

2)    Long-Term > Short-Term

          Sammy Watkins was great in Week 1 and Davante Adams was terrible, but what are the chances Watkins actually finishes the year with more fantasy points? Austin Ekeler was similarly great, but what are the chances he scores more than Nick Chubb or Todd Gurley over the next 15 games? Nobody would blame you for holding onto Watkins or Ekeler, but savvy owners are willing to upgrade them while their value is at its absolute highest. This is one of the main things to keep in mind when assessing your roster. Look at your hottest players – particularly the players who are performing at unsustainable rates – and try to upgrade them for guys who have been slightly less productive so far but you can be fairly sure will score more points over the rest of the year. This isn’t to say you should trade every productive player on your team, but you should certainly be willing to upgrade them if the opportunity is there. Which brings us to the next point…

3)    Know when to strike on frustrated owners.

          Some players are going to have great years, but haven’t had great starts. Guys like Davante Adams, Mike Evans & Juju are all likely to finish as top-10 receivers on the year, yet none rank higher than 39^th at the position through Week 1. Owners who drafted Joe Mixon or David Montgomery have likely been hindered by their slow starts and will perhaps find themselves sitting at 0-2 after next week. Try to target studs who have stacked two poor games to start the year, particularly on fantasy teams with losing records. There’s usually a short window at the beginning of the year to acquire struggling stars before the law of averages kicks in and they heat back up.

         

          Don’t bother trying to put together a package for a hot team with a good record. Wait for them to hit a bump in the road before you strike. If you send out offers too early to a team that doesn’t need it, and they reject it, you will be sabotaging your future negotiations. People remember the trades they reject and will be more likely to reject that same offer in the future – even if the offer makes sense at that time. Besides that, just remember –

4)    You want to GET the best player involved.

          Unless it’s closing in on playoff season, and you are on the outside looking in, then you should be trading up and not down. This means that you shouldn’t trade a great player to get 2 or 3 good players – that strategy only makes sense if you have multiple holes to fill on your roster and have no time left to fill them with waiver additions. With so much time left in the year, you still have time to make meaningful waiver additions to fill you team’s holes.

          When trading, focus on acquiring elite talent, because those players are not easily replaceable or found often on waivers. Keep this in mind and don’t be afraid to package multiple good players if it means you get back one great player. Sure, it might seem like a lot to give up 3 solid players for just one great one, but you are a lot more likely to find a replacement for good production from a waiver-wire addition than you are to find elite production off waivers. 3 for 1’s are the kinds of trades championship teams are made of.