Shifting Narratives

 

- Miles Sanders & Kenyan Drake were redraft values. Now they’re injury risks.

 

- JT could be had in RD3 or 4, now you’re lucky to get him with the last pick in RD2

 

- Keenan Allen & Hunter Henry were overvalued, now they might be undervalued.

 

- Devin Singletary was BUF’s starter, now it might be Zack Moss

 

- Tevin Coleman was SF’s RB2, now it might be Jerick McKinnon

 

- Ke’Shawn Vaughn was a trendy sleeper, now he’s a joke.

 

- Logan Thomas was a joke. Now he’s a trendy sleeper...

 

Don’t get caught in take-lock & know when to let go!

 

The narratives, they are a changin!

10-ROUND ADP PICK’EM

 

       

          Sometimes, you can only choose one option or the other. Here are the hills I'm willing to die on:

 

RD1 – Derrick Henry > Dalvin Cook

RD2 – Austin Ekeler > Nick Chubb

RD3 – Jonathan Taylor > Todd Gurley

RD4 – DK Metcalf  > Courtland Sutton

RD5 – Raheem Mostert > Kareem Hunt

RD6 – D’Andre Swift > Mark Ingram

RD7 – Hollywood > AJ Green

RD8 – Hayden Hurst > Tyler Higbee

RD9 – Darius Slayton > Mecole Hardman

RD10 – Zack Moss > Marlon Mack & Kerryon

 

 

 

RD1 – Dalvin Cook vs Derrick Henry

 

          Cook may have the “ceiling” advantage, but it’s negligible, at best.

 

He averaged 21.9 PPG in his 13-game tear last year.

 

Derrick Henry averaged 21.1 PPG with Ryan Tannehill under center…

 

It’s the same production – so take the guy who’s played in 62/64 games & not the one who’s played in 28/48 & forces you to spend an 8^th rounder on his handcuff.

 

Henry > Cook

 

 

 

RD2 – Austin Ekeler vs Nick Chubb

 

          The case against Austin Ekeler is built on “regression,” but even if you applied a 17.5% reduction to his receptions, receiving yards, & receiving TD’s last year – he’d still have been RB7. Go ahead & project an even bigger dip – increasing rushing totals will buoy it, giving him a top-8 PPR floor barring health. Hard to see Chubb drastically topping that floor, at best, in any scenario where Kareem Hunt isn’t injured – especially considering the fact Chubb only finished as RB7 last year despite half a season without Hunt.

 

Ekeler > Chubb (PPR)

 

 

 

RD3 – Todd Gurley vs Jonathan Taylor

 

          Without even throwing the documented medical issues for Gurley into the equation, he’s just in a worse situation. He’s the 3^rd best player in an offense that hasn’t featured RB’s:

 

 ATL RB’s (combined rushing totals)

 

2018: 300/1,365/8

2019: 310/1,163/9

 

IND RB’s (combined rushing totals)

 

2018: 349/1,568/12

2019: 399/1832/13

 

          JT instantly becomes the best player in an offense that has previously featured lesser RB’s & the discrepancy in receiving totals between him & Gurley isn’t likely to be large enough to pass up the week (& league)-winning upside that JT possesses as your RB2 in RD3.

 

JT > Gurley

 

 

 

RD4 – Courtland Sutton vs DK Metcalf

         

          On one hand, you have a WR who’s his team’s top target – with a QB who’s passed for 30+ TD’s in 3 straight seasons & was 6^th in the NFL in passing yards last year.

 

          On the other hand, you have a WR who is also his team’s top target – but who’s QB averaged just 204 passing yards in 6 career starts – last year as a rookie…

 

          Projected improvement for Drew Lock aside – take the sure offense. DK is a freak in his own right & a Mike Evans/AJ Green-level Year 2 breakout is on the way.

 

DK > Sutton

 

 

RD5 – Raheem Mostert vs Kareem Hunt

 

          For the same reason I’m fading Chubb at an early-RD2 ADP, I’m fading Hunt at a RD5 ADP – the two are likely to cannibalize each other more than hopeful fantasy owners would like to believe.

 

If Chubb goes down – Hunt will have been worth the chance at that price.

 

But there’s just not a whole lot of room for carries behind Chubb (Hunt had 43 in 8 games last year) & some of the targets which Hunt’s RB2 value was so dependent on will likely be siphoned away this year. Don’t bet on him out-targeting the entire CLE TE corps like he did (37-32) in his 8 games last year – not with Austin Hooper, a healthy David Njoku, & a recently-drafted Harrison Bryant in town.

 

Gimme the RB who doesn’t need an injury in front of him for his scorching upside to be realized – the one who finished last year with 10+ fantasy points in 8 of his last 9 games, including 3 20+ games & a 50-burger.

 

Mostert > Hunt

 

 

 

RD6 – Mark Ingram vs D’Andre Swift

 

          As a Ravens fan – this one hurts me to type… but Mark Ingram is being severely overdrafted this year.

 

Only 202 carries & 26 receptions in 15 games last year, but buoyed by those 15 TD’s – including 5 receiving. He’ll be lucky to hit 8 this year.

 

JK Dobbins will eat into the little bit of receiving work he had & Gus Edwards will remain in the rotation to steal carries & possibly more red-zone work.

 

Swift – while a rookie – has a much safer receiving floor & tantalizing dual-threat upside.

 

Swift > Ingram

 

 

 

RD7 – AJ Green vs Marquise Brown

 

          You’re playing with a little bit of fire drafting either of these two – so it really comes down to, which is more likely to stay healthy?

 

Betting on a 32-year old WR who’s played in 9/32 games the past two years & is already dealing with more injuries this year just doesn’t feel right – especially when he’s on a team with a rookie QB & coaching staff that ran the team into the ground last year, and the alternative’s QB was MVP & the league-leader in passing TD’s last year…

 

Hollywood > AJG

 

 

RD8 – Tyler Higbee vs Hayden Hurst

 

          Hayden Hurst has everything Tyler Higbee has (& more):

-        Tantalizing Potential (Hooper paced for 92/968/7 last year as ATL's TE)

-        1^st RD Pedigree

-        Athleticism (4.67 40)

-        A League-Leading Passing Offense

-        2 Dope WR’s

 

But it’s what he doesn’t have that matters most:

-        A second TE who could steal anywhere from 35-50% of the snaps & routes.

 

Gimme the guy with the same top-5 upside & a clearer path to snaps, routes, and targets.

 

Hurst > Higbee

 

 

RD9 – Mecole Hardman vs Darius Slayton

 

          I know we like to beat up on Sammy Watkins – but he’s never played less than 8 games, has played 15, 10, & 14 games the past 3 years, and just re-signed on a 2-year deal. He’s a legitimate barrier to routes & targets for Mecole – even if Hardman doesn’t lose snaps & routes to Demarcus Robinson like he did as a rookie.

 

          Not even factoring in the addition of first-round RB CEH, it’s concerning that Hardman’s role dried up last year & he was given a glorified Tyreek Hill-handcuff role by the team once Reek healed from injury – and for that reason, I can’t justify taking him over Slayton – who fits the mold of a true No. 1 (6’1”/190, 4.39 40, 40.5” vertical) on a team that’s ready for one to emerge.

 

Slayton > Hardman

 

 

RD10 – Marlon Mack vs Kerryon Johnson vs Zack Moss

 

          I see two handcuffs & a potential starter…

 

Where the Colts & Lions went out & spent top-45 draft capital on two of the better RB prospects we’ve seen recently – the Bills only have Devin Singletary as a barrier to the starting role.

 

          Even if you like Devin Singletary as a player (I do), are any of us going to be surprised if this becomes a 50/50 “lightning & thunder” approach, with Moss soaking up all of Frank Gore’s 179 vacated touches – and perhaps then some?

 

I just don’t see a path to anywhere near 200 touches for Kerryon or Mack barring injury – and for that reason I’m willing to take a chance on the rookie.

 

Moss > Mack & Kerryon

Making The Case For Logan Thomas

 

The Case For Logan Thomas:

√ Was Never Supposed to be a QB

√ Bonafide Athlete

√ Progression Every Season as a TE

√ Paid $$ to be TE1 in WAS

√ Opportunity Ripe for the Taking

√ We’re Blinded By the Suck

 

          I know some of you are thinking, “Logan Thomas…?? Is this a joke…??”

 

I can’t fault anyone for that.

 

I wrote him off too, and justifiably so.

 

The dude played 4 years at Virginia Tech as a QB & never completed more than 60% of his passes in any season. His 52-39 TD/INT ratio was just flat out ugly – especially by college standards.

 

Despite that, AZ (& coach Bruce Arians) took a shot on him in the 4^th round of the 2014 Draft. As a rookie, Thomas completed just 1 of 9 passing attempts. AZ then promptly cut him before the following season, just one year into his rookie deal – a clear admission that he was unlikely to work out as a QB project.

 

Thomas tried to redeem himself with the Dolphins practice squad, but he couldn’t make the active roster.

 

The Giants gave him a shot on their practice squad too, but he couldn’t stick there either, and he never saw an active roster as a QB again.

 

He didn’t just fail, he failed miserably…

 

So we all wrote him off, & justifiably so.

 

 

          We all saw how bad Logan Thomas the QB failed & because of that, most of us haven’t been willing to hear out Logan Thomas the TE’s story.

 

& I’m not immune…

 

When I saw a tweet from my friend "Fantasy Mike" congratulating my other friend Jacob Vines on calling Thomas as WAS's TE starter, I thought to myself:

 

“Logan Thomas…?? A starting TE…?? Gimme a break...”

 

I only looked up Thomas's name again so I could write him off again… but to my surprise, everything that I found about Logan Thomas the TE was nothing but positive.

 

And his story is a whole lot deeper than I thought…

 

√ Was Never Supposed to be a QB

 

          Turns out, Logan Thomas has always been Logan Thomas the TE – we just never got to see it.

 

He was never supposed to be Logan Thomas the QB & all of Logan Thomas the QB’s failures were never even supposed to exist…

 

When he committed to VT in 2009, it wasn’t just as a TE…

 

It was as the No. 1 TE recruit in the nation, on multiple boards…

 

24/7 Sports had him No. 1.

 

ESPN had him listed as an ATH (he played WR, DB, & QB in high-school) & his 81 grade would’ve placed 3rd among TE’s, ahead of both Tyler Eifert & Zach Ertz.

 

Apparently, when Thomas was being recruited, he even went as far as to “eliminate any school from the recruiting process that viewed him as a QB.”

 

He committed to VT as a TE.

 

But, as the story goes, VT coach Frank Beamer coaxed Thomas into throwing the ball around in his first practice with the team, perhaps dreaming of another dual-threat QB like he had previously coached in Michael Vick & at the time had in Tyrod Taylor.

 

Thomas took the bait & the rest is history.

 

He played his entire career at VT as a QB & we were robbed of ever getting to see what Logan Thomas the (highly-recruited & highly-athletic) TE could do…

 

But we did get a glimpse of the potential at the 2014 NFL Combine…

 

And boy, was it a glimpse to behold…

 

 

√ Bonafide Athlete

 

          Participating as a “QB prospect,” Logan Thomas checked every box you’d be looking for in an elite TE prospect:

 

6’6”/248

4.61 40

35.5” vertical

4.18 shuttle

          Do I even need to compare those numbers to other TE’s?

 

Ok, if you insist:

 

Darren Waller

6’6”/238

4.46 40

37” vertical

4.25 shuttle

 

OJ Howard

6’5”/251

4.51 40

30” vertical

4.16 shuttle

 

Mark Andrews

6’5”/256

4.67 40

31” vertical

4.38 shuttle

 

Gronk

6’6”/264

4.68 40

33.5” vertical

4.47 shuttle

 

Logan Thomas

6’6”/248

4.61 40

35.5” vertical

4.18 shuttle

 

          Unfortunately, Thomas also threw the ball 60 MPH at the combine & QB whisperers drooled over that number just as much as the others.

 

He was still asked by some teams about switching positions – an inevitability after his eye-popping performance.

But his answer was – “I just disregard [changing positions] right off the top, really… I’d probably just tell you, ‘No, thank you. I’ll just take my chances elsewhere.’”

 

& can you really blame him?

 

He played QB his entire collegiate career & was a projected NFL draft pick at the QB position. If I were in his shoes, I’d have made the same mistake...

 

Unfortunately for Thomas, the predictable happened & his accuracy issues kept him from ever really having a legit shot at the QB position in the NFL.

 

It wasn’t surprising when he failed & it was the right move to write him off…

 

… as a QB – and only as a QB.

 

Because the NFL hasn’t written off Logan Thomas the TE – and you shouldn’t either.

 

 

 √ Progression Every Season as a TE

 

          Logan Thomas could have packed it in, taken his million in earnings & found another way in life.

 

But he didn’t – he fought back.

 

He announced a return to the TE position when he signed with DET’s practice-squad in 2016.

 

Literally the very next day… the Bills – who were 6-5 & in the playoff hunt – signed Thomas off DET's practice-squad & onto their roster…

 

Thomas fought for 2 years trying to get onto a roster as a QB & couldn’t.

 

He announces his return to the TE position (a position he hadn’t played since high-school, nearly 10 years prior) in the middle of the season & gets signed to a roster the very next day… Unreal.

With the Bills signing him mid-season, Thomas not having played TE since HS, & BUF having Charles Clay & Nick O’Leary established in their roles, there was no path to playing time for Thomas in 2016, but the coaches spoke highly of him. 

Here’s what Tony Sporano had to say:

 

“I think he has the tools to be really successful at this position. He’s intelligent… This guy is really motivated. He’s hungry. He wants it bad… The pass game comes naturally to him… Even if he doesn’t quite know the techniques of the route-running, he’s catching on really quick.”

 

BUF liked what they saw out of him in that half of a year enough to give him a crack at making the team again in 2017.

 

Not only did Thomas make the team – in his first full year playing the TE position since HS – but the Bills actually used him on offense, despite having Charles Clay, Nick O’Leary, Mike Tolbert, & Patrick Dimarco ahead of him in the TE/FB pecking order.

 

Thomas played 12 games & saw 9 targets, catching 7 of them for 67 yards & this TD…

 

 

          In 2018 – just his 2^nd full season as a TE since HS – Thomas had to earn a roster spot again, on an unguaranteed contract. Not only did he again earn his roster spot, but he continued to progress, playing another 12 games, catching over 70% of his targets for the second year in a row, & setting new career highs with 17 targets & 12 receptions.

 

 

          Last season – just his 3^rd full season as a TE since HS – he signed with DET, who had also just signed TE Jesse James to a 4 year/$22.6M contract & drafted TJ Hockenson in the first round. Thomas again had to earn his roster spot as the 3^rd TE. Not only did he do that, but he set new career highs for the 3^rd consecutive year – each year he’s played TE as a pro.

 

He played a full 16 games & saw 28 targets, catching 16 of them for 173 yards & a TD. He saw his snap count rise as the season progressed & he even out-targeted Jesse James 28-27, despite James being the highly-paid free-agent acquisition & also playing 16 games.

 

          Through those 3 years as a TE, Logan Thomas’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, at all:

 

7/67/1

12/77

16/173/1

 

And that definitely means the fantasy floor here is a big fat zero…

 

But what would those (progressing) numbers look like if he:

-        Had played TE through 5 years of college

-        Participated in the combine as a TE

-        Was highly-drafted as a 4.61-running/through-the-roof-jumping (collegiately productive?) TE

-        & Saw a higher snap & route-share through his first 3 seasons more typical of that mold of a TE ???

 

Instead of him:

-        Having played QB through 5 years of college & his first 3 years in the NFL

-        Having to make a mid-career transition back to TE

-        & having to scrap his way onto a roster as the TE3 ???

 

          The progression might not be happening on a timeline anybody wants (Thomas just turned 29 in July), but it’s definitely happening…

 

And I’m not the only one who’s noticed...

 

√ Paid $$ to be TE1 in WAS

When Logan Thomas became a free-agent this offseason, the Washington Football Team gave him a 2-year/6.1M deal – making him the highest-paid TE & 21^st highest-paid player on their roster…

 

The TE’s behind him are Jeremy Sprinkle (a lesser athlete who had 7 receptions through 2 years & just 26 last year despite Jordan Reed & Vernon Davis playing just 4 games – combined – ahead of him), Richard Rodgers (a career journeyman with 1 reception in the past 2 years), & Thad Moss (who the team passed on with all 8 of their draft picks, including two 7^th rounders).

 

That puts Logan Thomas in a firm position to see the highest number of snaps, routes, and targets he’s ever seen – as the starter, in the midst of his continued progression…

 

On top of that, his only target competition beyond Terry McLaurin is undrafted second-year pro Steven Sims, & two rookie WR’s…

 

 

 √ Opportunity Ripe for the Taking

 

          I don’t know whether Logan Thomas will emerge as a viable fantasy contributor, whether he’ll explode, or whether he’ll do nothing of any significance at all…

 

All I know is this – if there was a TE who:

-        Ran a 4.61 40, 4.18 shuttle, & jumped 35.5”

-        Who was the No. 1 TE recruit in his class

-        Has progressed statistically in 3 consecutive seasons despite being the TE3

-        Finally signed as a FA to be a team’s TE1

-        & his only target competition outside of the team’s No. 1 WR was an undrafted second-year slot WR & two rookie WR’s…

 

I’d care.

I’d care a hell of a friggin’ lot.

So I’m putting the failures of Logan Thomas the QB aside & giving Logan Thomas the TE a chance – like the NFL is.

He’s free & you even have the luxury of being able to watch him go undrafted in most leagues & still have the opportunity to possibly scoop him up of waivers if he does anything the first few weeks…

Keep an eye on him & don't be afraid to spend one of your last picks on him in deeper leagues... because why the hell not?

The ceiling is the roof.

 

_______________________________________________

 

          Thanks for reading! If you’d like more information on Logan Thomas, here are the sources I pulled information & quotes from. They add a lot of context to his journey as a football player & I highly recommend reading each of them as well.

 

Has Logan Thomas Finally Found the Right Spot?

 

Logan Thomas Tackling Transition to Tight-End

Combine Results

 

Washington Football Team Contracts

Logan Thomas Career Earnings 

& Here’s the little bit of film I could find on him…

 
(please find me more!)

Logan Thomas Highlights

Logan Thomas Bends Ryan Kerrigan's Face Mask on Monster Block