Here, we’ve ranked teams according to
which situations we believe will offer skill players the best opportunities to
score fantasy points. We favored offenses which will score the most points, generate
the most yardage, and have the most offensive line stability. Since we use PPR scoring
by default, we favored passing teams, because more receptions = more points. We
also penalized teams with running quarterbacks who tend to steal opportunities
(points) from the skill players on their team.
The purpose of this exercise is to
determine the “pecking order” of each team by examining each player’s relative
importance to their squad. This will help us to clarify the value and role of
each player. It will also help us to unearth situations in which players could
potentially find themselves stepping into major roles.
Keep in mind that the value of a role
is greatly tied to the strength of the offense. The 5th, 4th,
or 3rd option in a great offense may be more valuable than being the
3rd, 2nd, or even 1st option in a terrible
offense.
So, without further ado, here’s how we
expect the pecking orders to shake out around the league this year… let’s get
to it!
1.
Kansas City Chiefs
1A. Tyreke Hill??
1B. Travis Kelce
3A. Damien Williams??
3B. Sammy Watkins
5. Carlos Hyde/Darwin
Thompson??
6. Mecole Hardman
7. Demarcus Robinson
As of now, Tyreke Hill has avoided
suspension, although we can’t totally rule out the possibility that he still
could be suspended if more evidence of some sort comes out against him. Even
with Hill in the picture, Travis Kelce is basically tied as the top receiving
option on the NFL’s best passing offense – and he plays at fantasy’s shallowest
position. This makes him a legitimate mid-first round pick. A case could be
made for him to go as high as 5th overall, after the 4 “Super-RB’s”
of Barkley, McCaffery, Kamara, & Elliot, and that’s with or without
a Hill suspension. Having a 300-point TE is that valuable in fantasy.
We’re
expecting a split committee from Williams, Hyde, and Thompson. There’s going to
be a lot of points to be scored in this offense, so each back could hold value,
but if it’s anywhere near a committee, Hyde or Thompson is going to be the far
better value at their ADP. Williams should retain value even if Hyde or Thompson
emerges, but he carries a lot more risk at his current ADP. Hardman looks to be
clearly ahead of Robinson and is absolutely worth a late-round flier with the
upside he carries.
2.
New Orleans Saints
1A. Alvin Kamara
1B. Michael Thomas
3A. Jared Cook
3B. Latavius Murray
5A. Tre’Quan Smith??
5C. Ted Ginn Jr.??
7. Taysom Hill??
This offense is going to be funneled
through Kamara and Thomas. You could and should take
Kamara as the first RB and Thomas as the first WR in fantasy. They’re that
good. After those two, it’s hard to tell who the 3rd guy is going to
be, and it will probably vary on a weekly basis. Cook, Murray, Smith, and Ginn
should all have some huge weeks this year, but expect some inconsistency. Cook is
the likeliest to seize the 3rd slot in the pecking order. Last year
in Oakland, he scored 198 fantasy points on 101 targets, finishing as TE5.
There’s no reason he can’t duplicate that production this year. Ultimately, it
all depends on how well Latavius Murray runs, and how involved Smith and Ginn
are. If Taysom Hill ever gains a significant role, it’ll be interesting to see
which position(s) he’s eligible for in fantasy. If he’s given eligibility at
multiple positions, he’d gain extra value as a player who you could use as a
flex and backup quarterback.
3.
Los Angeles Rams
1. Todd Gurley
2A. Robert Woods
2B. Brandin Cooks
4. Cooper Kupp
5A. Darrell Henderson
5B. Malcolm Brown
7. Gerald Everett
8. Josh Reynolds??
The core of this group is going into
their third year together, giving us a good idea of how the pecking order is
going to shake out. Gurley, even with reduced touches, is going to be the clear
top dog. He’s falling down draft boards a bit more than he should. If you can
get him with your second pick, he’s likely to end up a steal. Just be sure to
grab Henderson as insurance. Malcolm Brown is likely to see time too. Kupp avoided
the PUP, but it’s still possible that he could see reduced snaps to start the
year as he works his way back from a torn ACL. He was looking like Goff’s
favorite target and he could rise back to that 2A slot by season’s end. His
value will likely increase as the season carries on. Keep an eye on whether Everett
or Reynolds takes a step forward while Kupp works his way back into form.
4.
Los Angeles Chargers
1. Melvin
Gordon
2. Keenan Allen
3A. Mike Williams
3B. Hunter Henry
3C. Austin Ekeler
6. Justin Jackson??
With Melvin Gordon in the picture, the
Chargers’ pecking order is almost identical to the Saints’ – a stud RB and WR, and
then a TE, second WR, and backup RB all rotating on a weekly basis as the 3rd
option in the pecking order. The thing is, it’s looking more and more likely
that Melvin Gordon won’t be in the picture this year. You can’t justify taking
him in the first two or even three rounds if he isn’t under contract by the
time you draft. If Gordon does hold out into the season, or is traded, that
would make Mike Williams the 2nd most important player in a
potential top-5 offense. He could really go crazy. Austin Ekeler would become
as valuable as the James White/Tarik Cohen type of receiving backs. Justin
Jackson – who averaged 4.1 yards per-carry and 9 yards per-reception as a
rookie – would carry flex value and would have the potential to leap
Ekeler, Henry, and maybe even Williams in the pecking order if he were
to run well enough. He’s a great high-upside option late in drafts.
5.
New England Patriots
1A. Julian Edelman
1B. Sony Michel
1C. James White
1D. Josh Gordon??
5. (4. w/out Gordon) N’Keal
Harry/Jacobi Meyers/Demaryius Thomas/??
6. (5. w/out Gordon) Damien Harris/Rex
Burkhead??
New England is one of the most interesting
situations for fantasy purposes. The list of questions surrounding this offense
goes on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and, well, you get the point… Is
Julian Edelman going to lead this offense or are they going to turn to Sony
Michel and the running game? Is Michel going to stay healthy? If he does, is he
going to separate himself from James White or is White going to be just as
heavily involved as he was last year? How much of a role is Damien Harris going
to have? What about Rex Burkhead? How does the WR corps shake out after
Edelman? Is there going to be a TE worth using? And what about that guy Josh
Gordon?
The complete lack of clarity is
depressing the ADP for everyone not named Julian Edelman, meaning there’s the
potential for all of the other guys to provide a solid return on investment. Just
look at the top-4 options on some of the other similarly ranked offenses, like
the Chargers, Saints, Rams, Colts, and Browns… Most of the top options on those
teams are going in the first round or two, with the second and third in the
pecking order going anywhere from the 2nd to the 6th
round, and the fourth player in the pecking order going anywhere from the 6th
to the 10th round. Then, look at the Patriots... On average, Edelman
is going in the 4th round. White and Michel are going in the 5th.
Gordon’s going around the 8th. Harry and Meyers are practically
going undrafted. If New England is a top-10 offense, like we expect them to be,
it’s likely that almost all of these guys are going to outperform their ADP’s.
6.
Indianapolis Colts
1. T.Y. Hilton
2. Marlon Mack
3A. Eric Ebron
3B. Jack Doyle
3C. Parris Campbell
3D. Devin Funchess
7. Nyheim Hines/Jordan Wilkins??
It’s still the
Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton show in Indy. Beyond that, this team is still
trying to develop an identity. Marlon Mack should step forward as a
clear 2nd option to Hilton, but will they continue to take him off
the field in short-yardage and passing situations? Are Hines and Wilkins roles
going to shrink from last year or remain the same? Ebron goes into the season
as the 3A, but Jack Doyle should steal some of his reception and yardage volume,
and Funchess should steal some of his touchdown volume, so be careful of
overdrafting him. Funchess was beaten out by Curtis Samuel last year, so we are
fully expecting him to be leapfrogged by the talented Campbell this year. We
ranked Campbell tentatively as 3C, but we wouldn’t be surprised at all if he quickly
climbs higher. Heck, we’re willing to go as far as to say that Campbell’s even
got the talent and potential to overtake Mack as the 2nd
most important skill player on the Colt’s. He could end up being a league-winner
this year if he and Luck stay healthy.
7.
Cleveland Browns
1A. Odell Beckham Jr.
1B. Nick Chubb
3. Jarvis Landry
4. Kareem Hunt??
5. (4. For first 8 games) David
Njoku
6. (5. For first 8 games)
Rashard Higgins
7. Antonio Callaway
We made it a point to list Nick Chubb
as the 1B to OBJ’s 1A. Beckham is getting all the headlines, but Chubb was so
good last year, that, if he runs the same way, he really should be
featured every bit as much as Beckham. Heck, he could even be the 1A to
Beckham’s 1B. The biggest question surrounding the Browns is obvious – how big
of an impact is Kareem Hunt going to have when he returns from an 8-game
suspension? We’re wary of players being able to jump right into a role
mid-season, but if anyone can do it, a guy with Hunt’s talent is a good bet.
Still, 9 weeks is just too long of a time with a hole burnt on your roster to
justify spending anything other than one of your last picks on Hunt, who’s
likely only coming back to a backup role anyways. However, Hunt is a sneaky
pick in keeper leagues and could provide significant return on investment if he
lands another team’s lead gig next year. If Hunt does earn touches behind
Chubb when he returns this year, with OBJ and Landry hogging targets in the
passing game, there will be little left for David Njoku. Still, the possibility
exists that Chubb plays so well through the first 8 games that he keeps Hunt
off the field upon his return, allowing Njoku to remain the 4th
option in the pecking order all season long. Instead of drafting Njoku as a
starter, it makes more sense to draft him as a solid backup who could really
emerge if anything were to happen to Beckham or Landry. Rashard Higgins has
clearly outplayed Antonio Callaway for the 3rd WR gig, and that fact
has only been cemented by Callaway’s 4-game suspension to start the year.
Higgins could have value in deeper leagues, and carries significant upside if
Beckham or Landry were to go down.
8.
Atlanta Falcons
1. Julio Jones
2A. Devonta Freeman
2B. Calvin Ridley
4A. Mohamed Sanu
4B. Austin Hooper
6. Ito Smith/Quadree
Ollison/Brian Hill??
This is Julio Jones’ offense, and
Atlanta is a now committed to being a passing team. Maybe he’ll score a few
more touchdowns this year. We are expecting Ridley to take a step forward and be
every bit the 2nd option that Freeman is, especially considering the
Falcons may try to limit Freeman’s touches in a bid to protect his health. Mo’
Sanu and Hooper are likely to rotate as the 4th option, capping each
other’s upside unless the other goes down. Ito Smith is being drafted late
amongst some high-upside RB’s, but we aren’t so sure his grip on the backup job
is as firm as some drafters may be expecting.
9.
Pittsburgh Steelers
1A. Juju Smith-Schuster
1B. James Conner
3A. James Washington??
3B. Vance McDonald??
3C. Donte Moncreif??
3D. Jaylen Samuels??
3E. Diontae Johnson??
8. Benny Snell Jr.
JuJu and James Conner are going to dominate
touches for this team. Nobody really knows how the pecking order is going to
shake out after that. Every one of the guys listed has massive potential
if they were to claim the 3rd slot in the pecking order, but there’s
also the potential that nobody does and that the ball is simply spread
around amongst the remaining players. The WR’s are all worth a dart throw at
their current ADP’s, especially James Washington, who has the highest upside of
the three going late. People are drafting McDonald to be a starter in fantasy,
and he has massive upside if he does take control of the 3rd
slot in the pecking order and absorb some of Jesse James and Antonio Brown’s
targets. But, there’s also the potential that Samuels, who played TE in
college, is used more as a receiver this year in the absence of Jesse James.
McDonald’s no lock to just automatically inherent that volume that James left
behind, and we can’t just assume that Antonio Brown’s targets are going to go
to him either. This is his 7th season in the league, and last year
was his first season over 400 yards, when he finished with 610, so keep that in
mind when setting your expectations. He’s worth a pick as your starting TE, based
on the total lack of options at the position, but you should probably draft two
TE’s if you do go with him as your starter. Samuels is an intriguing pick as an
extremely high-upside “handcuff,” but he makes more sense as a pick for Conner
owners. Don’t forget about Snell. He could have value as well if Conner does
miss any time.
10.
Green Bay Packers
1. Davante Adams
2. Aaron Jones
3A. Marques Valdes-Scantling??
3B. Geronimo Allison??
3C. Jimmy Graham/Jace
Sternberger??
6. Jamaal Williams/Dexter
Williams??
7. Equinemious St. Brown
There’s not a whole lot behind Adams
and Jones, which means that each is due for a ton of volume this year. Valdes-Scantling
has the talent to become the clear 3rd option, but is he going to
put it all together this early in his career? How is Allison going to fare in
his return from injury? Is Graham going to rebound or is he going to continue
to spiral downward? Could the rookie Sternberger – a third round pick – steal
the starting job from Graham? Which Williams would step up if Aaron Jones went
down? And is St. Brown – who flashed at times as a rookie – going to be
involved? Everybody has an opinion but nobody really knows.
11.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1. Mike Evans
2A. Chris Godwin
2B. OJ Howard
4A. Peyton Barber??
4B. Ronald Jones??
6. Cameron Brate??
7. Breshad Perriman??
This team is going to pass, pass, pass,
and then pass some more. You know what you’re getting out of Mike Evans at this
point – a legit WR1. The real question is – just how good are Chris Godwin and
OJ Howard going to be? The sky is the limit for both. Godwin could end up a WR1
himself and Howard has the potential to join the top tier of TE’s (Kelce,
Kittle, & Ertz.) Ronald Jones could take the starting job from
Peyton Barber, but he’s still not likely to be better than 4th in
the pecking order. It’s hard to tell whether Cameron Brate will be relevant or
whether a third receiver will step up out of nowhere. Brate is certainly
getting paid as if he’ll maintain at least somewhat of a significant
role. He’s an intriguing dart throw for those who miss completely on TE, as
he’d become extremely valuable if Howard were to go down. He was able to score
6 TD’s last year and he may see additional targets with DeSean Jackson and Adam
Humphries out of the picture.
12.
San Francisco 49ers
1. George Kittle
2A. Tevin Coleman
2B. Matt Breida
4A. Dante Pettis??
4B. Deebo Samuel??
4C. Jalen Hurd/Trent Taylor??
7. Jerick McKinnon??
George Kittle is probably just as good
of a player as Travis Kelce and there’s really no reason why he can’t equal him
in fantasy. He’s absolutely worth a third-round pick. If he’s as productive as
last year, he’ll be worth a second rounder. If Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida
are anywhere close to as productive of a combo as Devonta Freeman and Coleman
were under Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta, both will be massive steals at
their current ADP’s, especially Breida, who you can get after the 10th round. This offense should easily support two runningbacks
in fantasy, and if Breida runs like he did last year – when he averaged 5.3
yards per-carry – he could legitimately end up as the lead back. Coleman is a
solid pick as well and is the more “prototypical” back, at 6’1” and 220 pounds,
but that didn’t stop him from being beaten out by the smaller Freeman in
Atlanta, so don’t just assume he’ll beat out Breida because he’s bigger. Even
if he is beaten out by Breida for the lead role, he shouldn’t be any
less valuable than he was as a second fiddle to Freeman in Atlanta. He’s absolutely
worth his ADP.
Under Shanahan, with Jimmy G back and
a stable of capable backup quarterbacks, this offense should be vastly
improved, yet not a single San Francisco WR is going before Round 8, and only
Pettis is going before Round 10. It’s likely all of the WR’s will outperform
their draft day values. Samuel and Hurd could both surprise as rookies in a
pecking order that is up for grabs. McKinnon has upside, but those who
draft him will probably drop him early in the year as he slowly works
his way into the rotation behind two established backs. There’s no reason for
San Fran to give him significant touches over Coleman and Breida right now.
13.
Chicago Bears
1A. Tarik Cohen
1B. David Montgomery
3. Allen Robinson
4A. Trey Burton??
4B. Anthony Miller??
6A. Taylor Gabriel
6B. Mike Davis
8. Cordarelle Patterson??
This team is going to flow through
it’s runningbacks. It’s likely that Tarik Cohen is the star of the show early
in the year before the team starts to lean more and more on the rookie
Montgomery as the year winds down. Allen Robinson is the focal point of the
passing game, but the ball is going to get spread around, and we’re not really
sure whether Mitch Trubisky is going to look to Trey Burton or Anthony Miller more
as the second receiving option. Burton should separate himself from Adam
Shaheen, and Miller should separate himself from Taylor Gabriel, but it
remains to be seen how much they actually will. We don’t know if
Cordarelle Patterson will have a role on offense, but he could. One
thing is clear – this team has a lot of mouths to feed.
14.
Minnesota Vikings
1A. Adam Theilen
1B. Dalvin Cook
1C. Stefon Diggs
4. Kyle Rudolph
5. Irv Smith Jr.??
6A. Alexander Mattison??
6B. Chad Beebe/Laquon Treadwell??
There’s a lot of upside with the top 3
options here because so much of the offense is going to be funneled through
them. There’s unlikely to be a third receiver that matters, and the backup
runningbacks are probably not going to see a lot of time. If this becomes a 2TE
offense, it should benefit Dalvin Cook even more, although it would likely
limit Rudolph’s upside. It’s unlikely Smith holds value this year, but
he is a receiving tight end, so if any one of the two tight ends is
asked to block, it’s likely to be Rudolph. You can stash Mattison but don’t
assume he’s automatically going to have the gig to himself if Cook goes down.
15.
Philadelphia Eagles
1. Zach Ertz
2A. Miles Sanders??
2B. Alshon Jeffery
2C. Jordan Howard??
5A. Dallas Goedert
5B. Desean Jackson
7. Darren Sproles/Josh
Adams/Corey Clement/Wendell Smallwood??
8. JJ Arcega-Whiteside/Nelson
Agholor??
There’s a lot more talent in
Philadelphia this year than last year, so even though Zach Ertz is going to
remain the focal point, he’s almost certainly going to see reduced volume. Sanders
is probably going to be the guy who leads a jumbled runningback rotation, and
Jeffery’s going to be the guy who leads a crowded receiver corps, but neither
of them is going to be featured. Goedert is the real wildcard and could force
the team to turn into a 2TE offense. He had 4 games last year – as a rookie –
with double-digit fantasy points and could easily become relevant in fantasy
this year at a shallow TE position. DeSean Jackson has a high-ceiling, but the
team’s insistence on spreading the ball around is going to make it near
impossible for him to reach it on a consistent basis. This team has a ton
of mouths to feed.
16.
Houston Texans
1. Deandre Hopkins
2A. Lamar Miller
2B. Will Fuller??
2C. Duke Johnson
2D. Keekee Coutee??
6. Jordan Akins/Jordan Thomas??
This team is severely lacking
in playmakers, which means that there’s a real opportunity for Lamar Miller, Duke
Johnson, Will Fuller, and Keekee Coutee to all outperform their ADP’s. It’s
basically going to be 5 guys (other than Deshaun Watson) who touch the ball for
this team, and that’s if Fuller and Coutee stay healthy, which they’ve
struggled to do. Fuller is loaded with upside, but you can’t draft him
as a starter in fantasy with his injury history. Coutee could provide value
even if Fuller stays healthy. This team is going to need him to touch the ball.
The same goes for Miller – even if Duke Johnson overtakes him in the pecking
order, this team is still going to need him to touch the ball.
17.
Seattle Seahawks
1A. Chris Carson
1B. Tyler Lockett
3. Rashad Penny
4A. David Moore??
4B. D.K. Metcalf??
4C. Nick Vannett??
4D. Will Disly??
8. C.J. Prosise/J.D.
McKissic/Travis Homer/Bo Scarborough??
There is so little talent outside of
the top-3 options here that Rashad Penny doesn’t even need to steal the
starting job from Chris Carson to hold value this season. He’s going to get his
touches on this team. Carson himself is also due for significant volume no
matter how Penny performs. Metcalf is worth a dart-throw, although Metcalf’s
injury and David Moore could complicate Metcalf’s fantasy prospects in a
run-first offense. Disly looked to be worthy of a spot on fantasy rosters last
year before going down to injury, but it’s more likely that he’ll be stuck in a
committee as he works to regain his form. We know Seattle will probably involve
a third runningback at some point, and if one of Carson or Penny goes down,
that third back could step into a significant role. Keep an eye on who wins that
competition.
18.
Arizona Cardinals
1. David Johnson
2A. Larry Fitzgerald
2B. Christian Kirk
4A. KeeSean Johnson??
4B. Andy Isabella??
6. Ricky Seals-Jones
David Johnson is going to be the focal
point of this offense and is an obvious bounce-back candidate. Christian Kirk
is only getting better while Larry Fitz is only getting older, but the two are
likely to hold similar value this year, and Fitzgerald could easily end up as
the more productive of the two. In what’s shaping up to be one of the
pass-happiest offenses in the league, both are great values at their current
ADP’s. Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s history of using 4WR sets means that Seals-Jones
is likely to be less involved, and that rookies KeeSean Johnson, Andy Isabella,
and Hakeem Butler all have a chance to hold value.
(EDIT – Hakeem Butler
was injured and placed on I.R. The team just signed Michael Crabtree. Keep an
eye on him, as he will be on the field for the majority of snaps if he is able
to beat out even one of the two rookies.)
19.
Carolina Panthers
1. Christian McCaffery
2. DJ Moore
3. Curtis Samuel??
4. Greg Olsen??
5. Chris Hogan/Torrey Smith??
6. Ian Thomas??
Christian McCaffery is going to be
option 1, 2, and 3. After that, DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel should both see a good
chunk of volume, and both are likely to be involved in the run game as well.
Samuel should be the clear third option, or he could even end up the 2B
to Moore’s 2A if he plays well enough. Worst case scenario, he ends up the 3B
to Greg Olsen’s 3A. Don’t just write Olsen off, because Cam Newton has shown in
the past that a healthy Olsen is one of his favorite targets, even if there are
other talented players on the team. Olsen could force the pecking order into a
2A, B, and C situation behind McCaffery if he maintains his health.
20.
Baltimore Ravens
1A. Mark Ingram
1B. Lamar Jackson
3A.
Gus Edwards??
3B. Willie Snead??
3C. Mark Andrews??
3D. Marquise Brown??
7. Justice Hill
8. Hayden Hurst
This is the only team where we
have the quarterback listed as part of the skill players’ pecking order. Lamar Jackson
is going to run the ball so often and steal so many touches from the skill
players that it needs to be factored into the equation. He averaged 17
rushes per-game in his 7 regular-season starts as a rookie. Baltimore is going
to run, run, run, run, fake the pass, run, and then run it again, meaning it’s
shaping up to be the Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram show.
Ingram is being especially undervalued, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be
going at least as high in fantasy as similar run-first backs like Leonard
Fournette, Derrick Henry, and Marlon Mack, if not before them. Beyond
Ingram and Jackson, the pecking order is up for grabs, and the ball is likely
to be spread around. There probably isn’t going to be another Raven who holds
any real value, although Andrews is the best bet at a shallow TE position. Gus
Edwards is definitely going to be involved, and even Justice Hill is an
intriguing “handcuff” option. Both have the potential to become the
“star” of the show alongside Jackson if Ingram were to go down. Even if
Ingram stays healthy, the Ravens are going to run the ball so much that two
runningbacks could easily hold value.
21.
Cincinnati Bengals
1. Joe Mixon
2A. Tyler Boyd
2B. A.J. Green??
4. Tyler Eifert/C.J. Uzomah??
5A. Gio Bernard
5B. John Ross/Cody Core/Alex
Erickson??
Going into this year, we knew it was
no longer going to be A.J. Green’s team. His offseason foot injury and surgery
a few weeks ago only cemented that fact. This is Joe Mixon’s team now, and,
even with Green, Mixon’s due for a ton of volume. Mixon is likely to end
up amongst the league leaders in total touches, especially if Green does
miss extended time. Don’t be surprised if he clears 350 rushes + receptions. There’s
so little depth on this team that they are going to need him to carry that kind
of load – John Ross has been a disappointment so far in his career and the
receivers behind him are special-teamers. Gio Bernard will maintain his
change-of-pace role, but other than Tyler Boyd and the rickety crickety Green,
the only known playmaker in the passing game is Tyler Eifert, and he’s just one
good hard sneeze away from another trip to the IR (in all fairness to Eifert,
that ankle injury last year was nasty! But the fact is the guy just can’t ever
stay healthy.) Be ready to scoop up Uzomah off the waiver wire if (and,
unfortunately, likely when) Eifert goes down.
22.
Detroit Lions
1A. Kerryon Johnson
1B. Kenny Golladay
3. Marvin Jones
4A. TJ Hockenson??
4B. CJ Anderson??
4C. Danny Amendola??
The release of Theo Riddick signals
that the coaching staff is ready to center the offense around Kerryon Johnson. His
ADP is steadily climbing towards the back end of the 2nd round
because he could easily be this year’s “breakout” RB. Golladay could also be
this year’s “breakout” WR, but the team’s run-first/defensive-minded tendencies
are going to make a true “breakout” difficult for him. Jones is likely to
outproduce his ADP, but the presence of Amendola and Hockenson limits his
upside. Interestingly, Johnson’s ADP has risen since the release of Theo
Riddick, but CJ Anderson’s has remained relatively unchanged. We aren’t sure
why that is. Anderson is worth a dart throw late as the likely second back in what
figures to be one of the league’s run-heaviest offenses. He could be an
absolute steal if he runs like he did last year for the Rams.
23.
Dallas Cowboys
1. Ezekiel Elliot??
2. Amari Cooper
3A. Michael Gallup??
3B. Randall Cobb??
5. Blake Jarwin/Jason Witten??
6. Tony Pollard??
Le’Veon Bell taught us last year that
there is a lot of risk in drafting a player in the midst of a holdout and just
assuming he’ll be back by the beginning of the season. Hopefully, Zeke and the
Cowboys are able to work a deal out soon because it is going to be risky taking
Elliot in the first 2 rounds if he’s unsigned by the time your Draft rolls
around. He could easily be a steal if he slides in your Draft and ends up signing,
but still, you should probably prioritize drafting rookie Tony Pollard as well if
you do draft Elliot. Amari Cooper is the clear second option in Dallas and is
likely going to be the only usable piece in the receiving game. The combination
of Michael Gallup and Cole Beasley was pretty useless for fantasy purposes last
year and it’s unlikely that the combo of Gallup and Cobb is any different this
year. If either does maintain any value, it’s more likely to be Gallup than Cobb,
as he has an established relationship with Dak Prescott and started to come on
a bit down the stretch last year, averaging 10 fantasy points per-game over his
last 7 games.
24.
Oakland Raiders
1. Antonio Brown
2. Josh Jacobs
3. Tyrell Williams
4. Doug Martin/Jalen Richard??
5. Darren Waller??
6. Hunter Renfrow??
If Antonio Brown can find some
moisturizer and maybe a new pair of cleats for his terribly cracked feet (have
you seen those pictures!? Gross!) he could see even more volume than he
did in Pittsburgh. He’s a good bet to lead the league in targets. There’s that little
surrounding talent on this team. Josh Jacobs also figures to be given as much
as he can handle, with only “Muscle Hamster” Doug Martin and Jalen Richard
behind him on the depth chart. Tyrell Williams should see a career high in
targets and Darren Waller is the type of TE (converted WR) who has the
potential to pop in fantasy. This defense is going to be BADDDD again, with all-caps
and 4 D’s – so there’s certainly some potential for Oakland to rack up garbage
fantasy points late in games this year – similar to the way the Buccaneers did
last year.
25.
New York Jets
1. Le’Veon Bell
2A. Robby Anderson??
2B. Quincy Enunwa??
2C. Chris Herndon IV??
2D. Jamison Crowder
2E. Ty Montgomery
The one thing that worries us about
this offense is that Coach Adam Gase’s offense was the slowest in the league
last year, with just 54.9 offensive plays per-game. That means Le’Veon Bell is
probably not going to reach the heights he reached in Pittsburgh, although it’s
possible that the lack of surrounding talent on this roster keeps his volume
close to what we’ve been used to. We should also probably cool the hype on
Robby Anderson and Chris Herndon a bit. Even if they do take a step
forward as players, fewer plays per-game is going to equate to fewer
opportunities for them to score fantasy points. Gase is definitely going to
need to speed up his offense in order for these players to realize their potential.
26.
Denver Broncos
1. Phillip Lindsay
2A. Emmanuel Sanders??
2B. Courtland Sutton
2C. Royce Freeman??
4B. Noah Fant??
6. DaeSean Hamilton/Tim Patrick??
Lindsay is likely going to lead this
offense. Everything is up for grabs after that. Sanders could be that 2A, but it’s
possible he’s overtaken by Sutton this year. Sutton, Freeman, and Fant all have
potential. Sutton might be a really good NFL player, but Joe
Flacco’s tendency to funnel his targets towards runningbacks and tight-ends
puts a cap on his ceiling for this year. Freeman could land anywhere from 1A-4C.
Worst case, he falls behind Fant in the pecking order and is a sparsely-used
backup. Best case, he becomes the 1B to Lindsay’s 1A, or even overtakes Lindsay
and becomes the 1A himself. Fant has a solid chance of an Evan Engram-type
rookie breakout. It’s not out of the realm for him to narrowly become Joe
Flacco’s top target and climb to the 2A spot in the pecking order. He’s a great
late-round dart throw at TE.
27.
New York Giants
1. Saquon Barkley
2A. Evan Engram??
2B. Sterling
Shepard??
2C. Golden Tate??
5. Cody Latimer
This offense is going to go as far as
Saquon Barkley takes it and not much further. Last year it became abundantly
clear that Eli Manning was utterly incapable of throwing the football more than
5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Manning’s numbers didn’t look terrible on
paper, but it was difficult to watch, and the Giant’s win total reflected it. He
literally caused my eyes to bleed on multiple occasions (ok, maybe not literally,
but it seemed like they were going to!) It’s likely going to be tough to watch
this Giants offense again (minus the Saquon Barkley highlights) as long as Eli
is behind center. Still, Shepard, Tate, and Engram could provide sneaky PPR
value in an offense that appears destined to rely on a multitude of short
passes. Engram in particular could be in for a big year with all of the issues
the Giants have at WR. He’s got the potential to
climb up into that upper-TE tier. Tate’s 4 game suspension has caused his ADP
to drop into the late-rounds, and that could actually be a blessing in disguise
for those who wait on WR.
28.
Washington Redskins
1B. Derrius Guice
1A. Adrian Peterson
3. Jordan Reed
4A. Trey Quinn??
4B. Josh Doctson/Terry McLaurin??
4C. Chris Thompson??
Derrius Guice has the lowest ADP of
any RB that sits atop his respective team’s pecking order, outside of LeSean
McCoy in Buffalo. That means he’s more than likely going to outperform his
draft slot, although the presence of Adrian Peterson and other capable backups means
he likely won’t outperform it by much. Guice is going to have to play really
well to keep the other guys off the field. None of the receivers here are being
drafted before the 12th round, which means at least one of
them is going to end up being a steal, especially if Jordan Reed fails to play
16 games. Our best bet is on Quinn establishing himself as a PPR value, but
don’t sleep on McLaurin, who has a lot of talent, and speed. Doctson is either
going to end up breaking through this year or he’s going to get benched
entirely. He’s at that stage with the team. We wouldn’t count on a breakthrough.
Chris Thompson always seems to provide PPR value when he’s healthy, but is he
the same player after all of those injuries?
29.
Miami Dolphins
1A. Kenyan Drake??
1B. Kalen Ballage??
3. Kenny Stills
4A. Devante Parker/Preston
Williams??
4B. Albert Wilson??
4C. Mike Gesicki??
The Dolphin’s offense could actually
surprise this year. Adam Gase and his snail-pace offense is gone. Chad Shea
comes over from New England to call plays. Even if Ryan Fitz is not so magic,
he and Josh Rosen are likely to be a more productive combination than Ryan Tannehill
& Brock Osweiler were last season. If Fitz does have some magic
left, there are going to be a few Dolphins who end up as major steals in
fantasy, most notably – Ballage. Tell me, how many other RB’s going after Round 10 can you pencil in for 150 touches? I’ll tell you, there’s not many –
Ballage, Peyton Barber, Dion Lewis, and Matt Breida, and maybe Frank Gore, if
you want to include him – that’s it. Those are the only RB’s going after Round
10 who have a clear path (which doesn’t require an injury to another player) to
150 touches. Ballage has the lowest ADP of them all, yet he’s got probably the
best chance of those guys at seizing his team’s starting gig. He’s being criminally
underrated in drafts this year.
30.
Tennessee Titans
1. Derrick Henry
2A. Dion Lewis
2B. Corey Davis
2C. Delanie Walker
5A. Adam Humphries??
5C. AJ Brown/Taywan Taylor??
This could easily turn back into a
1A/1B situation with Henry and Lewis if Henry’s current foot ailment hinders
him early in the season. Even if Henry seizes the lead job, Lewis isn’t going
to fall beyond 2C, or, at worst, 4th in the pecking order, making him
a criminally underrated option on draft day. Lewis had over 200
touches last year and will probably get close again this year. Corey Davis has
the talent to sit atop this team’s pecking order if Tennessee were a
passing team, but unfortunately for him, they’re far from it. He’s got a relatively
high floor but also a low ceiling as long as this team is employing Marcus
Mariota and Ryan Tannehill as their quarterbacks. The same goes for Walker.
31.
Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Leonard Fournette
2. Dede Westbrook
3A. Chris Conley??
3B. Marquise Lee/ /DJ Chark/Keelan
Cole/Terrelle Pryor??
5. Geoff Swaim/Josh Oliver??
Leonard Fournette played terribly
last year, but he’s probably going to get even more volume this year.
He’s as risky as they come, but he also carries league-winning upside as a 3rd
round pick, especially if he plays like he did as a rookie. That’s a big “if”
at this point. Dede Westbrook is going as late in drafts as any other team’s
No. 1 WR, outside of a few teams, like the Redskins, Dolphins, and Bills. He’s
due to be a steal if he can even slightly increase his production from
last year. It’s unlikely any of the other receivers carry consistent value, but
we can’t rule out Lee, Conley, or Chark breaking through. Nick Foles has a
history of emphasizing the TE position as well, which makes Swaim (and Oliver
when he returns from injury) intriguing prospects at a shallow TE position.
32.
Buffalo Bills
1A. LeSean McCoy??
1B. Frank Gore
3A. John Brown??
3B. Cole Beasley??
3C. Devin Singletary/TJ Yeldon??
3D. Zay Jones??
One of these RB’s is going to
lead the way for the team and be a steal in fantasy. It remains to be seen which
RB that is going to be. The touches are likely to be split and none of them
are likely to be great, but they are being drafted so late that at least
one of them is going to provide more value than their ADP will cost. McCoy is a
cut candidate, but with each passing day, you have to wonder – why wouldn’t
they have already cut him if that was their plan? If he’s on the roster, he’s
going to be at the top of the pecking order on a team that has an improved
offensive line and dedication to running the football. There’s certainly a
great deal of risk to drafting McCoy because he could be cut late, but he won’t
cost much on draft day, and the return on investment could be huge. It’s
not clear who would inherent the job if McCoy were cut, but Singletary,
Gore, and Yeldon would all be worth fliers, with Singletary having the upside
to possibly lead his team’s pecking order as a rookie. But we all know
what old man Gore would have to say about that, so temper your expectations
with Singletary if McCoy is cut.
John Brown is the wildcard here. He’s
likely going to lead this receiving corps, and there’s a good chance he
finishes with 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015. In Joe Flacco’s 9
starts last year, John Brown averaged 3.8 receptions for 66.7 yards (17.7 yards
per-catch) and .44 touchdowns per-game. He averaged exactly 13 fantasy points
per-game in those 9 starts. If Flacco had started 16 games, at that pace, Brown
would have finished with 60 receptions for 1,068 yards and 7 touchdowns, and
208 fantasy points. That would have made him WR20, just behind Tyler Lockett
(WR19) and Jarvis Landry (WR18.) He could easily duplicate that this year now
that he’s paired with Josh Allen, who has one of the strongest arms in the
league. Brown’s ADP is creeping up from the 14th round into the 13th,
and we suspect soon it’ll creep into the 12th, but that’s still far
too low if he produces anything like he did last year with Flacco. Beasley
could end up providing value in deeper PPR leagues but has an extremely limited
ceiling.
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