Making The Case For D.K. Metcalf

√ College Injuries Deflated Status

√ Freak Athlete

√ NFL Bloodline

√ Rookie Production

√ Target-Share

√ Elite QB

√ Long-Term Stability

         

          There was justification for skepticism about DK Metcalf when he came into the league as a rookie. His college career at Ole Miss went like this:

FR: 2/13/2 in 2 games (season-ending broken foot)

SO: 39/646/7 in 12 games

JR: 26/569/5 in 7 games (season-ending cervical neck fracture)

*early declare*

          Naturally, the focus was on other WR’s as we started the beginning of the 2019 pre-draft process…

& then this happened…

& the DK hype-train started to build steam – quickly…

√ Freak Athlete

          Just a couple weeks after that photo surfaced, DK scorched the combine with a 4.33 40 & 40.5” vertical while casually throwing up as many bench reps as offensive lineman (27)… at 6’3”/228…

At that point, the hype-train damn near ran off the tracks & we were all left wondering – who in the world is DK Metcalf?

          The inevitable effect was that we ended up seeing more than a few NFL mock drafts with DK being projected as high as the top-5…

So when he “slipped” all the way out of the first round & many of us were already in bed sleeping when he got picked by SEA with the last pick in the second round, it gave us reason for pause.

Questions about his injury history resurfaced.

& doubts about his statistical upside in a “run-first” offense crept in…

Then he went out & seized the starting job & put up oh you know just a cool 4 receptions for 89 yards in his first game as a pro…

At that point, anyone who’d been disregarding him was forced to face reality – DK Metcalf is here to stay.

√ NFL Bloodline

         

          If you didn’t know, D.K. is the son of former Bears OL Terrence Metcalf – a 7-year NFL vet & first-team All-American at Ole Miss himself.

You can read more about the influence Terrence had on DK as a kid here.

Apparently, Terrance had DK squatting 100 pounds when he was just 5 years old…

That rare combination of NFL bloodline + freakish athleticism can = marvelous results (see McCaffery & Mahomes)…

Could DK be next?

          We saw it in spurts at Ole Miss, on full display at the combine, & come full circle in his rookie year, which by the way, was historically good…

√ Rookie Production

    

          Here’s the list of rookie WR’s (since 1990) with at least 58 receptions, 900 yards, & 7 TD’s:

          Michael Clayton is the rare WR to disappear after that kind of rookie success & even the other 3 “busts” (Johnson, Williams, & Benjamin) had decent success for a few years.

The rest:

Juju

McLaurin

Colston

Galloway

Keenan

Evans

AJG

MT

OBJ

Moss

Boldin

Now go look at what Year 2 looked like for those players…

It’s glorious…

         

          DK produced from Day 1 as a rookie, but in the second-half of his rookie year particularly, he balled like a 75-reception/1,150-yard WR would…

Over the last 8 regular season games & 2 playoff games, he caught:

46/717/4

That’s a 16-game pace of:

73/1147/6

That pace is 100% replicable & should be considered his Year 2 floor with no new target competition added in 2020, & considering DK actually caught 7 TD’s last year & not 6, I’m willing to bet he hits double-digits in Year 2.

That’d give him 73/1147/10 going by his second-half-of-rookie-year receiving-pace.

73/1147/10 = WR10 last year.

√ Target Share

          Speaking of target competition – there is none.

Tyler Lockett had a career high 110 targets last year (21.3% market share)

DK had 100 (19.4% market share)

After that…

Jacob Hollister – 59 (11.4%)

Chris Carson – 47 (9.1%)

David Moore – 34 (6.6%)

Jaron Brown – 28 (5.4%)

Will Dissly – 27 (5.2%)

35-year-old Greg Olsen slots in over Hollister, Carson’s health is in question, & Dissly is coming off his second season-ending injury in two years (torn achilles)…

The only WR’s they brought in (Phillip Dorsett & 6^th rounder Freddie Swain) are more likely to replace Moore or Brown than anything.

There’s no reason Lockett & DK can’t both see 125 targets apiece this year & finish with a 21-22% market share.

Leaving all other roles the same, it’d take Russ going from 516 attempts to 556 to get DK & Lockett those 40 extra targets.

With the best WR duo he’s ever had, a RB corps that has more RB’s in the rehab room than on the field, & the fact that he’s in his prime as a passer, I expect Russ to very likely surpass 553 for a new career high.

Even if he doesn’t, for all the concerns about DK’s statistical upside in a “run-first” offense, Russ was 6^th in the NFL in passing yards last year & 3^rd in TD’s on “just” his 516 attempts. He’s also thrown for 30+ TD’s in 3 straight seasons.

√ Elite QB

          Being tethered to Russell Wilson is perhaps the biggest selling point for DK in dynasty formats – besides the freakish athleticism, youth, NFL bloodline, & historically great rookie production…

Because Russ is 31 & DK is 22…

& based on the team’s history of paying their cornerstone players (Russ, Marshawn, Wagner, Sherman, Chancellor…) we can expect DK to sign an extension before ever even sniffing the FA market.

That = a legitimate shot at Russ-to-DK magic for the next decade.

         

          There’s only one answer here, and it’s:

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY.

Today, tomorrow, here, or there, in a train or on a plane, buy DK Metcalf wherever you can. Best-ball, redraft, or dynasty, the freak that is DK Metcalf is about to be set free.

Making The Case Against Todd Gurley

          Is anyone else getting major Steven Jackson-to-Atlanta vibes from Todd Gurley this year??

Or is it just me?

*HYPE through the roof

*Comes to ATL w/ mileage

*Downward trending

*Injuries

*WR's & TE's to limit receiving work

*Reality ≠ HYPE

          Jackson was a soon-to be 30-year old former STUD RB coming off a year in which he rushed for 258/1045/4 & caught 38/321 for the Rams.

He landed in a high-scoring ATL offense & we drooled over the workhorse POTENTIAL.

The hope was - with little competition on the ATL depth chart, Jackson might be able to recreate the 3-down production that we'd seen in previous years with receiving lines like:

43/320/2

90/806/3

or 51/322

There was reason to believe he'd see enough VOLUME to do it.

So we overlooked his mileage, a downward trend, injuries, and the WR's & TE's (Roddy White, Young Julio, Old Tony G) limiting his potential receiving upside...

All because we looked at the ATL RB depth chart, saw nobody behind Jackson, & thought to ourselves:

"WORKHORSE"

This led to a lot of us sinking 2nd & 3rd RD picks into Jackson.

I can't find the ADP data, but in my 12-team home redraft league, he went at 2.11

He played 12 games with ATL that year, finishing with:

157/543/6

33/191/1

He was RB22 in PPG

A low-end RB2 who missed time.

          Now, Todd Gurley is going into his age-26 season & not his age 30-season, but part of me has got to worry about whether he's got a 30 year old's knees.

Because literally every other factor we ignored with Jackson is present:

*Mileage

Not quite the same mileage as a 30-year old Jackson, but Gurley comes to ATL with 1,265 NFL carries on his tires & 5 straight years of 223+ carries...

*Downward trending

Gurley started off 2018 with a fantasy-MVP level bang & that's what we all like to remember, but he had a noticeable drop-off the second half of the year, missed the final 2 regular season game with knee "soreness," and had a Super Bowl line of 10/35.

It was reported after the Super Bowl that Gurley was dealing with "an arthritic component" in his knee... and in 2019, he did nothing to quell those concerns.

His YPC dropped from 4.9 in 2018 to 3.8 last year.

For those who don't give a damn about YPC, his yards after-contact dropped from 2.4 YAC in 2018 to 1.7 YAC last year.

& his coach actively refused to utilize him in receiving situations, which maybe indicates his coach didn't view him as the same threat he once was?

Gurley's yards per-catch dropping from 9.8 YPC in 2018 to 6.7 YPC last year & his catch percentage (of targets) dropping from 72.8% to 63.3% would indicate his coach might have been onto something.

His 34.8 PFF grade confirms it, & doesn't even compare to Devonta Freeman's 2019 receiving grade (69.5)

*Injuries

Jackson didn't come to ATL with any major injury concerns, but he had missed time in 4 of the last 6 seasons prior with the Rams.

Gurley comes to ATL with a known arthritic knee that – from all indications – played a role in his slow finish to 2018 & even poorer 2019.

So, just like Jackson, Gurley has the potential of missing time with Atlanta.

*WR’s & TE's Limiting Receiving Work

We thought S-Jax would get a lot of receiving work because there were no other RB's in ATL, but he caught just 33/191 in 12 games because Matt Ryan had Roddy, Julio (who only played 5 games that year), and Old man Tony G to throw to.

Now, we assume Gurley is gonna get a lot of receiving work because of a lack of another 3rd down back on the roster, but Matt Ryan has Julio, Calvin Ridley, and a young Hayden Hurst to throw to, not to mention, I've heard Russell Gage isn't terrible.

It feels like we’re talking ourselves into Gurley having a lot of receiving upside this year based on his previous receiving lines of:

64/788/6

& 59/580/4

While ignoring the more recent lack of usage in that department – exactly the mistake we made with Jackson…

          Look, I get it. It’s easy to fall in love with Gurley’s 2020 upside. He’s in probably the best position he could be in to somehow re-capture his early-2018 magic...

But, if we’re being honest with ourselves, the potential for him to:

-Be inefficient with limited rushing volume (ATL led the league in passing attempts per-game last year)

-Be relatively uninvolved as a receiver

- & possibly miss games...

is probably just as likely, if not more so than him becoming a STUD RB again.

Making the Case for TE-Early AND Late In Your 2020 Redrafts

          The most compelling case for TE-early & late is the simple fact that it is BY FAR the scarcest position to find production at, even scarcer than RB. Even though TE is deeper than ever, it’s still nowhere near a deep market.

In every tier, supply ≠ demand.

Last year:

114 players scored 150+ fantasy points:

29 QB’s
31 RB’s

45 WR’s

9 TE’s

In 12-team leagues, that’s:

2 QB’s apiece & a 3^rd for every other team.

Nearly 3 RB’s apiece.

Nearly 4 WR’s apiece.

But not enough TE’s for everyone to get one…

85 players scored 190+ fantasy points:

28 QB’s

21 RB’s

30 WR’s

6 TE’s

In 12-team leagues, that’s:

More than enough QB’s & WR’s for 2 per-team
Almost enough RB’s for 2 per-team

But only enough TE’s for half the league to get one…

59 players scored 220+ fantasy points:

24 QB’s

13 RB’s

19 WR’s

3 TE’s (!!)

(Kelce/Kittle/Waller)

Do you see where this is going??

(TE EARLY!)

By going RB in RD1 (and possibly also RD2), you can secure one (or two) of those 13 RB’s, be one of the few teams to set themselves apart at TE with one of their first 3 picks, & “settle” for gobbling up the sturdy mid-round WR’s & late-round QB’s.

This strategy is ideal because it allows you to have the most important assets in the smallest (& most valuable) markets (RB & TE), with the deepest & easiest markets to trade up in (WR & QB) being your weakest positions going into the season.

You can trade up the QB & WR ladders in-season for a half-eaten bagel & your loose pocket change.

Trading up the RB & TE ladder will cost you an arm, a leg, & the shirt off your back.

Which position would you rather find yourself in??

This year, whether it’s:

Kelce/Kittle RD2

Andrews RD3

Waller RD4

Ertz RD5

Or Henry/Engram RD6

You should be prioritizing getting one of the clear top-7 TE’s who are projected to give you a legitimate advantage at the position.

Getting one of these TE’s gives you a legit chance at cornering the trade market if you hit on your TE-late target/a waiver addition early in the year.

Kelce/Kittle make sense in RD2 if you’re comfortable getting your RB2 & RB3 in RD3 or later.

Mark Andrews makes sense in RD3 if you don’t see a huge gap between him & Kelce/Kittle and/or if you’re intent on starting off RB/RB.

Waller makes sense in RD4 if a solid RB/WR falls to you in RD3, or if someone snipes Andrews.

Ertz makes sense in RD5 if you want to gobble up RB’s & a WR (or two) through RD4.

Personally, this is my cut-off point, as I don’t particularly trust Henry’s or Engram’s health, but they make sense in RD6 if you don’t see a huge gap between them & Ertz & would rather grab another RB, WR, or your first QB in RD5.

After those 7 TE’s it’s a guessing game.

There are 15 TE’s popular TE-late targets this year:

(In order of Sleeper ADP)

Higbee, Jared Cook, Hurst, Hooper, Fant, Gesicki, Hockenson, Jonnu, Jarwin, Ebron, Goedert, Doyle, Herndon, Knox, & Ian Thomas.

We love names this time of the year, but it’s a major risk assuming you’ll actually hit on one of these TE-late targets, even if you draft two of them…

& that’s assuming you won’t get sniped & will actually be able to draft the late-round TE’s you’re targeting…

Everyone wants to believe they’re going to find the next Mark Andrews or Darren Waller with a TE-late draft strategy.

But for every hit last year, there were 2-3 misses.

According to Sleeper’s ADP, Vance McDonald (75.1) & David Njoku (83.5) were going before Austin Hooper (95.4)

All of those guys, Delanie Walker (115.4), Eric Ebron (117.5), & TJ Hockenson (126.1) were going before Mark Andrews (142.1)

All of those guys, Trey Burton (152.4), & Kyle Rudolph (154.9) were going before Darren Waller (155.8)

Chris Herndon (157.3) & Jordan Reed (158) were also swing & misses at similar ADP’s.

Noah Fant (158.1) was the last “TE-late” target with an ADP below 276 & except for 2 games, he was a swing & miss as well.

That’s 13 TE’s who were taken in the “TE-late” range last year & each (minus maybe Rudolph) had a case for a legit break-out (or bounce-back) year.

We hit on 3 of them (!!)

~ 25% Hit Rate

We were just as likely to draft a Njoku/Herndon or McDonald/Burton stack as we were to end up with either Hooper, Andrews, or Waller.

Even if we assume we’re getting a Hooper, Andrews, and Waller-level breakout from 3 TE’s in each year’s batch (ambitious, at best), that means there’s going to be more fantasy teams who miss on the TE-late strategy than those who hit, and that’s assuming 2 of those 3 breakouts aren’t drafted by the same fantasy team.

By starting off your draft with a top-TE early, you give yourself more leeway to miss on your TE-late target (which ~75% of TE-late picks will), as well as the potential to corner the TE market if your TE-late target hits.

Imagine what you could have done with Travis Kelce & Mark Andrews on the trade market last year…

Or Kittle early & Waller late…

Here’s an anecdote of this very scenario which propelled me to a Championship & Total Points Title last year:

RB (Zeke) RD1
Kelce RD2

WR/RB/RB/WR next

2QB’s RD7/8

Andrews late.

By Week 4, I had a clear TE trade chip. Traded Andrews & Jarvis (my 6^th RD pick at WR) to a TE-needy team for Chris Godwin (after Week 4), & the rest is history.

Drafting Lamar as my QB1 in that league also probably helped, but the point remains – I hit on TE-early & late, used one TE as a trade-chip & turned one of my mid-round WR’s into a stud, all while maintaining my advantages at RB & TE.

Similarly, my downfall in another league was drafting Hunter Henry RD5 & no second TE. When he went down I figured IR & dropped him. It left me scrambling at TE & in a position where I couldn’t refuse Dalvin Cook & Evan Engram (from an owner who also had Waller!!) for my CMC.

Engram got hurt a week after the trade (or at least it felt like it was only one week later) & my team struggled to fill the TE hole all year. Jacob Hollister (7 pts) was my starting TE in my Week 14 first-round exit.

In both situations, having multiple top-TE’s allowed incredible leverage on the trade market, particularly early in the year.

I’m sure teams who took Kittle early & Waller late last year can tell you similar stories about how they were able to exploit the situation…