Sometimes,
you can only choose one option or the other. Here are the hills I'm willing to die on:
RD1 – Derrick Henry > Dalvin Cook
RD2 – Austin Ekeler > Nick Chubb
RD3 – Jonathan Taylor > Todd Gurley
RD4 – DK Metcalf > Courtland Sutton
RD5 – Raheem Mostert > Kareem Hunt
RD6 – D’Andre Swift > Mark Ingram
RD7 – Hollywood > AJ Green
RD8 – Hayden Hurst > Tyler Higbee
RD9 – Darius Slayton > Mecole Hardman
RD10 – Zack
Moss > Marlon Mack & Kerryon
RD1 – Dalvin Cook vs Derrick Henry
Cook
may have the “ceiling” advantage, but it’s negligible, at best.
He averaged 21.9 PPG in his 13-game tear last year.
Derrick Henry averaged 21.1 PPG with Ryan Tannehill
under center…
It’s the same production – so take the guy who’s
played in 62/64 games & not the one who’s played in 28/48 & forces you
to spend an 8th rounder on his handcuff.
Henry > Cook
RD2 – Austin Ekeler vs Nick Chubb
The
case against Austin Ekeler is built on “regression,” but even if you applied a
17.5% reduction to his receptions, receiving yards, & receiving TD’s last
year – he’d still have been RB7. Go ahead & project an even bigger
dip – increasing rushing totals will buoy it, giving him a top-8 PPR floor
barring health. Hard to see Chubb drastically topping that floor, at best, in any
scenario where Kareem Hunt isn’t injured – especially considering the fact Chubb
only finished as RB7 last year despite half a season without Hunt.
Ekeler > Chubb (PPR)
RD3 – Todd Gurley vs Jonathan Taylor
Without
even throwing the documented medical issues for Gurley into the equation, he’s
just in a worse situation. He’s the 3rd best player in an offense that
hasn’t featured RB’s:
ATL RB’s
(combined rushing totals)
2018: 300/1,365/8
2019: 310/1,163/9
IND RB’s (combined rushing totals)
2018: 349/1,568/12
2019: 399/1832/13
JT instantly
becomes the best player in an offense that has previously featured lesser RB’s
& the discrepancy in receiving totals between him & Gurley isn’t likely
to be large enough to pass up the week (& league)-winning upside that JT
possesses as your RB2 in RD3.
JT > Gurley
RD4 – Courtland Sutton vs DK Metcalf
On one
hand, you have a WR who’s his team’s top target – with a QB who’s passed for
30+ TD’s in 3 straight seasons & was 6th in the NFL in passing
yards last year.
On the
other hand, you have a WR who is also his team’s top target – but who’s QB averaged
just 204 passing yards in 6 career starts – last year as a rookie…
Projected
improvement for Drew Lock aside – take the sure offense. DK is a freak
in his own right & a Mike Evans/AJ Green-level Year 2 breakout is on the
way.
DK > Sutton
RD5 – Raheem Mostert vs Kareem Hunt
For
the same reason I’m fading Chubb at an early-RD2 ADP, I’m fading Hunt at a RD5
ADP – the two are likely to cannibalize each other more than hopeful fantasy owners
would like to believe.
If Chubb goes down – Hunt will have been worth the
chance at that price.
But there’s just not a whole lot of room for carries
behind Chubb (Hunt had 43 in 8 games last year) & some of the targets which
Hunt’s RB2 value was so dependent on will likely be siphoned away this year. Don’t
bet on him out-targeting the entire CLE TE corps like he did (37-32) in his 8
games last year – not with Austin Hooper, a healthy David Njoku, & a
recently-drafted Harrison Bryant in town.
Gimme the RB who doesn’t need an injury in front of
him for his scorching upside to be realized – the one who finished last year
with 10+ fantasy points in 8 of his last 9 games, including 3 20+ games & a
50-burger.
Mostert > Hunt
RD6 – Mark Ingram vs D’Andre Swift
As
a Ravens fan – this one hurts me to type… but Mark Ingram is being severely overdrafted
this year.
Only 202 carries & 26 receptions in 15 games last
year, but buoyed by those 15 TD’s – including 5 receiving. He’ll be lucky to
hit 8 this year.
JK Dobbins will eat into the little bit of receiving
work he had & Gus Edwards will remain in the rotation to steal carries
& possibly more red-zone work.
Swift – while a rookie – has a much safer receiving
floor & tantalizing dual-threat upside.
Swift > Ingram
RD7 – AJ Green vs Marquise Brown
You’re
playing with a little bit of fire drafting either of these two – so it really
comes down to, which is more likely to stay healthy?
Betting on a 32-year old WR who’s played in 9/32 games
the past two years & is already dealing with more injuries this year
just doesn’t feel right – especially when he’s on a team with a rookie QB &
coaching staff that ran the team into the ground last year, and the alternative’s
QB was MVP & the league-leader in passing TD’s last year…
Hollywood > AJG
RD8 – Tyler Higbee vs Hayden Hurst
Hayden Hurst has
everything Tyler Higbee has (& more):
-
Tantalizing Potential (Hooper paced for
92/968/7 last year as ATL's TE)
-
1st RD Pedigree
-
Athleticism (4.67 40)
-
A League-Leading Passing Offense
-
2 Dope WR’s
But
it’s what he doesn’t have that matters most:
-
A second TE who could steal anywhere from 35-50%
of the snaps & routes.
Gimme the guy with the same top-5 upside & a
clearer path to snaps, routes, and targets.
Hurst > Higbee
RD9 – Mecole Hardman vs Darius Slayton
I know
we like to beat up on Sammy Watkins – but he’s never played less than 8 games,
has played 15, 10, & 14 games the past 3 years, and just re-signed on a
2-year deal. He’s a legitimate barrier to routes & targets for Mecole – even
if Hardman doesn’t lose snaps & routes to Demarcus Robinson like he did as
a rookie.
Not
even factoring in the addition of first-round RB CEH, it’s concerning that
Hardman’s role dried up last year & he was given a glorified Tyreek Hill-handcuff role by the team once Reek healed from injury – and for that
reason, I can’t justify taking him over Slayton – who fits the mold of a true
No. 1 (6’1”/190, 4.39 40, 40.5” vertical) on a team that’s ready for one to
emerge.
Slayton > Hardman
RD10 – Marlon Mack vs Kerryon Johnson vs
Zack Moss
I
see two handcuffs & a potential starter…
Where the Colts & Lions went out & spent
top-45 draft capital on two of the better RB prospects we’ve seen recently –
the Bills only have Devin Singletary as a barrier to the starting role.
Even if
you like Devin Singletary as a player (I do), are any of us going to be surprised
if this becomes a 50/50 “lightning & thunder” approach, with Moss soaking
up all of Frank Gore’s 179 vacated touches – and perhaps then some?
I just don’t see a path to anywhere near 200 touches
for Kerryon or Mack barring injury – and for that reason I’m willing to take a
chance on the rookie.
Moss > Mack & Kerryon