Making The Case For Kenyan Drake As a Top-5 (Top-3?) RB in 2020

            The case can be made for Kenyan Drake as not just a top-5 RB in 2020, but as a top-3 RB. He’s got every factor working in his favor.

√ Better w/ BAMA & MIA Than You Think

√ Near-Elite Athlete

√ Dual-Threat Weapon

√ Top O-Line/Scheme

√ D-Hop Helps

√ No Competition

√ Poor Defense

             Let's start with last year.

Kenyan Drake absolutely EXPLODED in Arizona to finish out 2019.

He was so hot he might have burst into flames if he stepped outside on a hot day in the Arizona desert...

Terrible jokes aside…

His 16-game pace with AZ:

246/1286/16 Rushing
56/342/0 Receiving

In Drake’s 8 games with the team, he was RB3, behind only CMC & Derrick Henry.

His 19.9 fantasy PPG would have ranked behind only CMC & Dalvin on the year.

He averaged 18.8 touches per-game (302 touch pace) & 5.2 YPC.

His 16-game pace of 1,286 rushing yards would have ranked 5^th in the NFL.

& his 16-game pace of 56 receptions would have ranked 9^th among RBs.

That pace would have made him just the 5^th RB last season (along with CMC, Zeke, Fournette, & Cook) to have at least 1,100 rushing yards & 50+ receptions…

If you’re worried about why it took so long for this explosion to happen, don’t be.

It was only a matter of time.

Drake has been criminally hindered by a set of irregularly poor circumstances throughout his entire collegiate & professional career.

Let’s take a look back to where it all started:

2012: Alabama (FR)

Eddie Lacy was a junior who’d balled out & was entrenched as the starter. Can you blame Drake for being stuck behind him as a true freshman? Drake still made the most out of his 42 carries, gaining 6.7 YPC & 5 TD’s. That’s INCREDIBLE efficiency.

Season Splits:

Eddie Lacy (JR)

204/1322/6.5/17

22/189/2 Receiving

Yeldon (FR)

175/1108/6.3/12

11/131/1 Receiving

Drake (FR)

42/281/6.7/5 *

0 Receptions

2013: Alabama (SO)

As a sophomore, Drake played ahead of freshman phenom Derrick Henry, averaged a RIDICULOUS amount of yards per-carry again (7.5), & made plays in the receiving game too.

If you want to hold it against Drake for playing behind TJ Yeldon, hold it against Derrick Henry too.

Season Splits:

Yeldon (SO)

207/1235/6.0/14

20/180/0 Receiving

Drake (SO) 

92/694/7.5/8 *

12/135/1 Receiving

D Henry (FR)

35/382/10.9/3 (WTF bro)

1/61/1 Receiving

2014: Alabama (JR)

Drake only played in 5 games, missing 9 due to a fractured ankle, but he was EXPLOSIVE on his 27 offensive touches before he went down, taking them for 271 yards & 6 TD’s. Again, INCREDIBLE efficiency.

& Derrick Henry was still behind Yeldon (!!)

Season Splits:

Yeldon (JR)

194/979/5.0/11
15/180/1 Receiving

D Henry (SO)

172/990/5.8/11
5/133/2 Receiving

Drake (JR) (5 games) 

22/112/5.1/4

5/159/2 Receiving *

2015: Alabama (SR)

As a senior, Drake made the most out of his 77 carries & was also heavily involved in the receiving game.

Coming back from the past year’s injury, he ended up getting leapfrogged by the beast that is Derrick Henry, who had a historically great Heisman-winning season.

But can you really blame Drake for that?

He balled out when given the chance.

& he was also able to return from an arm injury (which occurred while making a tackle on special teams & cost him 2 games) to take a key 4th quarter kickoff in the National Championship back for a 95-yard touchdown. What a way to finish a college career.

Season Splits:

D Henry (JR)

395/2219/5.6/28 (Good Lord)

11/91/0 Receiving

Drake (SR)

77/408/5.3/1

29/276/1 Receiving *

D Harris (FR)

46/157/3.4/1

4/13/0 Receiving

B Scarbrough (FR)

18/104/5.8/1

0 Receptions

             Drake finished his Bama career with:

233/1495/6.4/18 Rushing

46/570/12.4/4 Receiving

INCREDIBLY EFFICIENT.

He averaged 6.4 YPC & didn’t have a single year with less than 5.1 YPC.

Despite that, it’s easy to see why he slipped to the 3^rd round of the 2016 Draft amid concerns about his durability & unproven ability to handle a heavy workload.

Some players see more than the 279 touches Drake was given in college in just one season (Drake never had more than 92 carries in a single year) & the two injuries were a bit concerning.

But now that he’s played 4 full seasons in the NFL without missing a single game to injury & has maintained his incredible efficiency in a workhorse role with the Cardinals, can we start to put those worries to rest?

Drake’s been damn near unstoppable as a pro.

2016: Miami (Rookie Year)

Drake was drafted in Round 3 by the Dolphins to be second-year RB Jay Ajayi’s backup.

The Dolphins gave Drake 33 carries as a rookie, which he took for 179 yards & 2 TD’s (5.4 YPC). He also had 9 receptions for 56 yards.

Again, the stellar efficiency was there.

2017: Miami (Year 2)

Drake followed up a solid rookie year with oh you know just THE MOST EFFICIENT SEASON EVER recorded by PFF…

No biggie.

He took 133 carries for 644 yards & 3 TD’s (4.8 YPC) & gained 4.29 yards after-contact per-attempt (!!)

That’s right, Drake gained 571 of his 644 rushing yards AFTER contact in 2017.

You’d think that Drake had immediately become the guy once the Dolphins traded Ajayi to the Eagles after Week 8, but their brilliant coaching staff thought a committee approach with Damien Williams (who averaged 3.9 YPC that year) was a better idea…

It wasn’t until Week 12 when Damien was injured that the Dolphins coaching staff was forced to give Drake more touches. As some of you may remember, Drake went on a tear during that final stretch (averaging 105.2 yards from scrimmage in his six starts) & carried a lot of fantasy teams to the Championship Round (scoring 23+ fantasy points Weeks 13/14/15)…

He did this while on the Dolphins...

2018: Miami (Year 3)

After Drake averaged 5.0 YPC combined over his first two NFL seasons and BROKE THE PFF RECORD for most yards after-contact per-attempt in 2017, the coaching staff made the obvious decision of giving Drake even less carries in 2018…

Less than they gave 35-year old Frank Gore (156 carries) …

Drake took the spit in the face which was the 120 carries he was given & took them for 535 yards & 4 TD’s (4.5 YPC)

He also showed out as a receiver, taking 53 receptions for 477 yards (9.0 YPC) & 5 more TD’s.

That’s 1,012 yards & 9 total TD’s on less than 175 touches folks…

In a downtrodden Miami offense…

2019: Miami/Arizona (Year 4)

After showing incredible playmaking ability in college as well as his first 3 NFL seasons, and never averaging less than 4.5 YPC, you’d think 2019 would have been the year Miami finally decided to let Drake loose.

Instead, as the lone ranger on a Dolphins team that:

Traded Ryan Tannehill & acquired Josh Rosen.

Let Ja’Wuan James & Frank Gore leave.

Added nothing at WR to pair with Devante Parker.

Traded cornerstone left tackle Laremy Tunsil.

& went into the year with 4 new starting offensive lineman…

Drake was given more than 10 carries just once in the first seven weeks & was held out (with his name in trade talks) in Week 8 before being traded to the Cardinals pre-Week 9.

& we all know what happened after that...


              Drake went absolutely bazonkas in his first game with AZ – on a short week against SF at that!

He finished his first game with 15 carries for 110 yards, a TD, a successful 2-point conversion, & another 4 catches for 52 yards …

And from that point forward, Kliff Kingsbury seemed to realize what nobody in Miami ever seemed to grasp – maybe you should feed this guy the friggin ball.

Drake was given at least 10 carries in every single game as a Cardinal (including two games with 20+ carries) & he had at least 3 receptions in 6 out of 8 games.

Mind you, this was while coming over from a midseason trade & learning the playbook on the fly.  

Not only did Drake keep Chase Edmonds on the sidelines, but he kept David Johnson pretty much entirely off the field as well.

It was mentioned at the top, but deserves mentioning again: his 16-game pace would have made him just 1 of 5 RB’s (!!) last year to have over 1,100 rushing yards & 50+ receptions.

              Some may want to chalk up that success with the Cardinals as a “fluke” or “small sample size”, but all of the evidence suggests otherwise:

√ Efficiency Was Always Present, Volume Wasn’t

√ Near-Elite Athlete

√ Dual-Threat Weapon

√ Top O-Line/Scheme

√ D-Hop Helps

√ No Competition

√ Poor Defense

It’s all there.

All of it.

                 We already talked about the incredible efficiency at Bama & in Miami.

His combine performance only backs up the hype.

Drake’s 34.5” vertical & 123” broad jump are solid, but where Drake really stood out was in the 40 & shuttle drills.

His 4.45 40 puts him in the 91st percentile for RB’s.

His 4.21 shuttle was better than both CMC’s (4.22) & Saquon Barkley’s (4.24).

It’s clear on tape that Drake is fast, agile, and when he plants his foot & cuts, he can really get-up-and-go.

His combine numbers back that up.

√ Dual-Threat

Drake’s speed & agility make him especially dangerous as a receiving threat & a perfect fit for a Kliff Kingsbury offense that wants to air the ball out.

Drake’s shown on multiple occasions that he has 50+ catch upside & he had a 16-game pace of 56 receptions with the Cardinals last year.

This is particularly important when considering the fact that Derrick Henry was the only top-5 fantasy back last year to finish the season with less than 49 receptions.

Drake’s one of the few backs in the league who can heavily produce in both facets of the game.

√ Top-O-Line/Scheme

& Speaking of scheme fit.

How great of a scheme is it for RB’s?

Pretty. Friggin. Great…

We already talked about how much Kingsbury used Drake in the receiving game, now let’s talk about the running game.

Arizona was No. 1 (!!) in the NFL with 2.55 yards before contact per rushing attempt.

Number friggin 1…

With Drake, the mesh was even better. Drake averaged an ABSURD 3.2 yards BEFORE contact in his 8 games.

Is there some regression due there? Absolutely.

Regardless, we’re talking about a top-5 unit/scheme in terms of creating yardage before contact.

Arizona returns 4 starters on the offensive line (minus AQ Shipley) & drafted tackle Josh Jones in Round 3. 

√ D-Hop Helps

It’s even more impressive that Drake was able to find & create so much space last year, despite defenses having only him to focus on… other than old man Fitz & 2^nd year Christian Kirk.

Adding DeAndre Hopkins should keep safeties out of the box & allow Drake to run even more freely this year.  

If the addition puts a dent in Drake’s target total, it shouldn’t be by much. At worst, Drake will be option 1B to Hopkins’ 1A, in an offense that looks like it’ll take steps forward as a whole.

Hop will get his, but it doesn’t have to come at the expense of Drake.

In fact, it might even help.

                 Speaking of competition for touches – there really is none.

In Drake’s 8 games with AZ, the RB touch distribution was:

Drake: 151 touches (85%)

DJ: 24 touches (13.5%)

Edmonds: 2 touches (1.5%)

If Drake can command 85% of the RB touches in an offense with David Johnson & Chase Edmonds, we should peg his floor at 80% this year in an offense that just traded DJ & only brought in Eno Benjamin as a 7^th round pick.

That’s workhorse status.

               By now, you’re probably wondering:

“Is this article done yet?”

Nope! Not quite…

Let’s talk about the Arizona defense!

                 The Arizona defense allowed the 5^th most points in the NFL last season.

Only the Dolphins, Panthers, Giants, & Bucs allowed more points per-game.

They added Isaiah Simmons in the draft, but that was their only real addition.

                 
Simple Math: Bad Defense = Offense Needs to Score = Lots of Fantasy Fun

                     Make of his long-term value what you will, but ALL signs point to a MASSIVE 2020 for Kenyan Drake.

& there very easily could be a whole lot of meat left on that bone if Drake balls out in 2020 & gets an extension from the Cardinals.

Yes, I’ve heard, RB’s die the moment they turn 26, but Drake just turned 26 in January & has 4 full seasons left before he even goes into his age-30 season.

He has less combined touches in 4 years at Bama + 4 years in the NFL (879) than Jonathan Taylor has had the last 3 at Wisconsin (968).

There’s plenty of tread left on his tires & he’s in arguably the best situation for any RB in the entire NFL…

There is absolutely no reason Kenyan Drake can’t finish as a top-3 RB in 2020.

Winning Ugly is Better Than Losing Pretty

          As Herm Edwards once said, repeatedly, “You play to win the game…” There’s no such thing as style points in the NFL, or in Fantasy either. At the end of the day, you’re chasing W’s. It doesn’t matter how you win; it just matters that you win.  

          Getting to the playoffs requires winning enough games, but winning a Championship is a totally different beast. You can’t just win enough games; you need to win them all. That means that you are going to have to make some difficult decisions – decisions which you might not have had the courage to make earlier in the year.

          It might take benching a superstar with a bad matchup, or starting a player that you just picked up that week. Whatever it is, don’t be afraid to make the uglier but smarter play.

          Take for example, Patrick Mahomes. Nobody is going to give you bonus points for starting him against the Patriots defense this week, or against the Bears in Week 16. If you have a legitimate second quarterback with an awesome matchup, don’t be afraid to roll with him instead.

          The same goes for the Patriots’ and Bears’ defenses. Sure, they might have helped carry you to the playoffs, but you don’t owe them anything. They should be on your bench when they face off against KC in Weeks 14 & 16.

          Your lineup might not look as good on paper, but trust your gut. Go with the guys who you feel give you the best chance to win that week. Forcing players with terrible matchups into your lineup isn’t going to make you feel any better about losing, so you might as well go for the win. Winning ugly feels a lot better than losing pretty.

Stash Defenses At Least 3 Weeks Before The Playoffs Start

          For most of the season, it doesn’t make sense to carry more than one defense, except if you’re going to stash an elite defense on your bench to avoid dropping them on their bye.

          Early in the season, having depth at the skill positions is just more important than rostering a second defense, for two reasons: it gives you depth at harder to replace positions in the event of an injury, and it allows you to acquire bench talent to use as trade bait.

          But, as we approach the fantasy playoffs, having extra depth becomes less and less valuable. With fewer games left, there’s a lower chance that one of your starters gets hurt. You can get away with having just one or two solid backup(s) at each skill position, whereas it might take having two or three solid backups at each skill position in order to feel secure in the earlier stages of the season.  

          The trade deadline is also a major turning point. Since you’ll no longer be able to use your bench depth as trade assets once the deadline passes, it starts to make more sense to stash a second defense than it does to acquire a 3^rd or 4^th RB or WR, or a 2^nd or 3^rd QB or TE.

          The fact that the pool of available skill players dries up towards the end of the season only exacerbates the point. At the beginning of the season, adding a second defense can mean having to forgo adding an immediate impact player, but, by Week 10, there are very few skill players left who can provide an immediate impact, which means that the opportunity cost of adding a second defense is significantly less than what it was earlier in the year.

          Week 9 or 10 is the perfect time to stash a second defense for the playoff run because it’s late enough in the season that you won’t have to forgo adding an impact player, and there is enough time left to stay ahead of the game. 

          You can be sure that other teams are going to try and stash defenses too. If you wait until Week 13, or until the fantasy playoffs begin, most of the defenses with the best playoff matchups will have already been snatched up. Teams who feel secure about their playoff chances aren’t likely to wait until just before the playoffs to stash a second defense – they’re likely to do it a week or two before. So, in order to stay ahead of them, you should be looking to stash a second defense three, four, maybe even five weeks before the fantasy playoffs begin, if you’re able to.

          The goal is to find a defense that has a good matchup during the week(s) when your other defense has a bad one. Some of the defenses with solid playoff matchups this year, who may be available in your league, are:

(Matchups listed Week 14, 15, 16)

Green Bay (WAS, CHI, @MIN)

Philadelphia (NYG, @WAS, DAL)

Houston (DEN, @TEN, @TAM)

Kansas City (@NE, DEN, @CHI)

New York Giants (@PHI, MIA, @WAS)

New York Jets (MIA, @BAL, PIT)

          An injury/benching to a starting QB over the next few weeks could also push a few more available defenses into this discussion as well. So keep an eye out if you’re unable to secure one of the defenses listed above.

Solving Your WR Issue by Adding RB’s & TE’s

          If you’re not content with your WR corps, then the simple answer is to add free agent WR’s to your bench and hope that one of them hits. But, there’s another way to go about it – a better way, especially if you’re in a league with willing traders.

          In competitive and active leagues, particularly with 12 teams or more, it can make more sense to add high-upside RB’s & TE’s to your bench to try and solve your WR issue. WR’s are more durable than RB’s and TE’s because they touch the ball less than RB’s and are involved in less heavy contact than TE’s, which means you’re more likely to “hit” on a backup RB or TE than you are to “hit” on a backup WR.

          Plus, a RB or TE that hits is a far more valuable trade asset than a WR that hits – if you pick up a WR and they hit, they aren’t likely to be as good as a WR that you could trade for with a RB or TE that hits.

          Obviously, if there’s a WR available who has the potential to become a stable set-it-and-forget-it WR2, or is just one injury away, it makes sense to add him to your roster. But, if you look at the free agent WR’s, and none of them are just one injury away from set-it-and-forget-it status, why not add a high-upside backup RB or TE who is one injury away from becoming valuable enough to trade for a set-it-and-forget-it WR2? Wouldn’t that make more sense?

Saving a Lost Season: The Art of the 3 For 1

          Pick your best player – the one everyone wants – the one you thought you’d never trade. Now give that player a pat on the back, a kiss on the cheek, and wave his ass goodbye. At 2-4 or 1-5, your playoff chances are dwindling. Lose this week and drop to 2-5 or 1-6, and you can pretty much pack it in. It’s like the little girl in Remember the Titans says to her dad (Bill Yoast), the defensive coordinator – “Now’s not the time to be proud, Pa..” (or something like that, you get the point.)

          One guy doesn’t make a team in real-life football, nor does it in fantasy. There’s a good chance you are 1-5 for a reason – likely because you have multiple holes on your roster.

          Don’t get me wrong, having a superstar player on your team like Julio, D-Hop, Nick Chubb, or Le’Veon is great. You know what else is great? Having a team that isn’t full of holes and actually wins the imaginary games we play. And seriously, if you’re 2-4, or 1-5, and your team legitimately has problems, what do you really have to lose? Take a chance, see what people are willing to give up for your stud. People will overpay. They always do.

          This doesn’t mean that every team with a poor record should trade their stud. Some teams with poor records are in legitimately good shape, with their slow start being a result of random chance and unlucky scheduling. There’s no need to blow up that kind of team just because the record doesn’t reflect the team’s talent. Hold tight, and be patient in the process.

          But, for every team that has a poor record without any real holes on their roster, there are five others whose poor records are a direct reflection of their lack of across-the-board production. These are the teams that need to let go of their best player. These are the teams that would benefit from a 3-for-1.

          There’s someone out there who will give up 3 good players for just one great one in return. Every year, in every league, there always is – you just have to find them.

          You should target the teams at the top – the teams who are sitting pretty at 4-2, 5-1, or 6-0. Those are the teams who are feeling overly cocky and are most likely to overpay.

          The idea is to give up your stud in return for a player who’s almost as good as your stud plus two other players who will fill holes on your roster. For example, let’s say you have a top-5 RB, but your WR2 and TE production is terrible. If you can acquire a top-15 RB in return for your top-5 back, plus a top-20 WR and a decent TE, that would probably make sense, wouldn’t it? You may lose a little bit of production by going from a top-5 RB to a top-15 one, but the extra WR & TE production should more than make up for that loss.

          This isn’t the only way to turn around a lost season, but it’s probably your best bet because people will usually overpay to acquire a stud. The stud you give up will still have his blow-up weeks for the team that you trade him to, but the guy you get in return will be just as good most weeks, and you will benefit from the added production across the other slots on your roster. Who knows, it might even allow you to make a run and sneak into the playoffs as an 8 seed.

          Conversely, if you’re on the other end of the spectrum –sitting pretty at 4-2, 5-1, or even 6-0, with extra assets just sitting on your bench, don’t be afraid to package ‘em up and go after that superstar languishing away on a 1-5 team. You are going to have to overpay, but don’t be afraid to sacrifice some of your middle-tier bench options to upgrade a starting slot. With a solid record, you’re likely already looking at a playoff appearance. The goal as a team with a winning record at this point should be to acquire as much top-level talent as possible – such players are rare commodities. You will be able to replenish your bench options that you trade away with guys that you find off waivers. Such middle-tier players are far more readily available. Your depth will absolutely take a hit, but sacrificing your depth in order to acquire studs is the kind of strategy championship teams are made of.

Using Waiver Claim Priority in Trade Negotiations

          When your low waiver priority prevents you from being able to add some of the top free agents, you don’t have to just give up on trying to acquire those players. You can treat the teams with the highest waiver priorities as an extension of the waiver pool.

          You yourself may not have a high enough claim to acquire the top available free agents each week, but you can still negotiate with someone who does. It’s as simple as approaching one of the teams with the top claims and saying to them, “If you pick up that guy for me, I’ll trade you this guy for him.”

          Being proactive in this way gives you a chance at acquiring free agent targets that you wouldn’t be able to otherwise claim. If you wait for the claims to go through first, and then try to find a trade partner, you run the risk of the free agent that you are targeting ending up on a team that isn’t a trade fit. It’s a better bet to manipulate which players the top teams claim by agreeing to a deal beforehand.

          There is significant risk in this strategy, however, so you need to be calculated when applying it. You need to be sure that the deal you’re offering is going to be accepted, otherwise you’re just telling another team which free agent you want for no reason. You also need to be fairly certain that the team you’re approaching has a high chance at claiming the agreed upon to-be-traded player. If you approach the team with the second highest waiver priority and strike an agreement, but then the team with the highest waiver priority claims the player you had agreed to trade for, now another team has information about you (like which positions on your team you feel weak at and which players you like) while you’re left without the player you were targeting. Not to mention, it’s a “soft” agreement, considering you’re agreeing to trade for a player who isn’t even yet on their team – so there’s always the potential that you could just end up selling them on the value of the available free agent to the point where they claim that player and decide to keep them for themselves, so you also need to be confident that the player you are offering is more valuable to them than the player you want them to pick up and trade to you.

          This especially works if you have a handcuff RB that you can push on the team with the starter. If you value a free agent more than the handcuff, and the team with the starter has a high waiver priority, it’s worth exploring whether or not they are willing to pick up your free agent target and trade them to you for the handcuff. By negotiating the deal before the claims go through, you can possibly acquire a player that you would have otherwise had no chance at claiming.

          An example would be if you had the 10^th out of 12^th waiver priority. Let’s say you’re willing to drop Malcolm Brown for Gardner Minshew, but you feel as if you have no chance at claiming Minshew with such a low waiver priority. You could just give up on acquiring Minshew. Or, you could always approach the team with a top claim – let’s say, the team with Todd Gurley and no need for a QB – and tell them that if they pick up Minshew for you, you’ll trade them Malcolm Brown for him. They might say yes. By using waivers in your trade negotiations, you can give yourself a chance at the top claims each week, regardless of your own personal waiver priority.

Trade Like an Expert: Manage Your Opponents' Teams

Too many of us only manage our own team. It’s easier that way. We focus on filling the holes on our own team instead of worrying about the holes on others’ – and we avoid offering trades involving players that we want to keep. The problem occurs when you need to upgrade your team but nobody is accepting those offers. What do you do then?

You need to take a minute to put aside your own team’s needs and put yourself in your leaguemates’ shoes. Don’t go into trades with the idea that certain players on your team are off limits. Be willing to negotiate a trade involving anyone. Figure out what other teams need most, what you have to offer as a solution, and what price it would take for them to acquire that solution.

In that way, you can open the door to a whole new world of trade opportunities, involving any of the players on your team – as long as the other teams are willing to pay the price that you set.

Why You Should Always Counter 1-For-1 Trades of the Same Position

          Let’s take a minute to talk about 1-for-1 trades of the same position. When someone offers you a 1-for-1 and both players play the same position, what they are saying to you is, “I think you have the better player, and you should swap him with me for free.” Think of it in numbers. They are essentially saying “I have a player worth 9. And you have a player worth 10. Wanna swap?” They are essentially trying to rip you off – plain and simple.

          Even if you think that they are wrong, and that they are offering you the better player in the 1-for-1, why would you let them know that? You may like the offer and think that your player is the 9 and that their player is the 10, but why would you let them know that? Play stupid. Agree with them.

          Never take a 1-for-1 offer you like without first asking for more. Your response to 1-for-1 offers should always be, “You are right, I have the better player. My guy is a 10, and your guy is a 9, which is obviously why you want to swap them, so why should I swap them for free? Why should I give up a 10 for a 9 when you won’t include anything additional to make it worth my while?”

          If they refuse to budge and include more, you can always settle for the original 1-for-1 that you believed would be a win for you. But at least ask for more first!

          One example of this I have already seen this year was a 1-for-1 trade: Leonard Fournette for Joe Mixon. This trade happened between two of my friends after Week 2. The team with Joe Mixon offered the team with Fournette a 1-for-1 swap. In doing so, they were sending the message that “I think Fournette is the better player – the 10, and I would rather have him on my team than Mixon, who I think is a 9.”

          The team on the receiving end of the offer mistakenly disagreed with him. He accepted the offer immediately, which was essentially saying “I disagree. I think you are wrong, and that Mixon is the 10 and Fournette is the 9, so I’ll do the swap.”

          And that’s where he cost himself an opportunity to maximize the trade into something more beneficial.

          He should have played stupid and agreed. His response, regardless of what he actually believed, should have been that “I agree, Fournette is better than Mixon, he’s a 10, and Mixon is a 9, so why would I swap him with you for free? To give up a lesser player and get the better one, I’d expect you should have to give up something of value, no?”

          Even though the team receiving the offer thought Mixon was the better player of the two, the team proposing the offer obviously didn’t. So why not capitalize on that fact?

          He should have asked the offering team to give him Mixon and a small upgrade somewhere else if he wanted to acquire the “better” player in Fournette. Worst case, if the offering team refused to include more, the team on the receiving end of the offer could have just reneged on their request for more, and said, fine, I’ll do the 1-for-1. But accepting a 1-for-1 of the same position without asking for more is only costing yourself an opportunity to capitalize on the fact that the team who offered it to you believes that you have the more valuable asset. You should always be using that to your advantage.

Staying One Step Ahead: Waiver Edition

          We’re going into Week 3 now and the waiver wire is starting to dry up. Each week, there will be a few attractive players that become available, but, if you play in a league with a waiver system, then you probably won’t have a shot at them unless you have one of the worst records in your league. If you want to acquire some of the more valuable free agents, you must plan one step ahead.

          When your record prevents you from acquiring the top free agents each week, the next best thing is to stash players who could become valuable down the road. You want to target players returning from injuries & suspensions, as well as players who are playing well on a limited amount of touches.  

Players who fit the mold this year are Golden Tate, Chris Herndon, and Kareem Hunt. These 3 guys would be on nearly 100% of rosters if they weren’t suspended, yet all 3 are currently available in a large number of leagues. Most people will try to claim these guys a week early and let them sit on the bench for a week before they return, which means that if you want to stay ahead, you should be targeting these players 2 or even 3 weeks before their return.

Tate returns in Week 5, and it’s likely that just about everyone in your league will be smart enough to put in a claim for him a week early – next week, before Week 4. That means that if you want to secure him on your roster, you should look to add him this week and let him sit on your bench for the remaining two games of his suspension.

Herndon is back in Week 6. If you find yourself in desperate need for a TE, you should look to acquire him after this week, because most teams will put in a claim for him after Week 4 with the idea of letting him sit on their benches during Week 5.

Kareem Hunt returns in Week 10. People are going to be willing to let a player of his upside sit on their benches for weeks before his return, if not the entire season, which means that you should be looking to add him soon if you want a legitimate chance at snagging him.

In addition to those 3 suspended players, there are also some injured players who may have been released. If there’s nothing on your waiver wire, but you have a guy to drop, consider taking a look to see if anyone dropped injured players like Drew Brees, Tevin Coleman, Hunter Henry, Sam Darnold, Sterling Shepard, or Michael Gallup. Stashing talented players like these guys could have a major payoff down the road.

Another way to stay ahead of the game is to target players who are playing well, but not playing a lot – players who could become quite valuable if they start to see the ball more. This strategy is paying dividends to the savvy fantasy owners who picked up Carlos Hyde after he took 10 carries for 83 yards in Week 1. Now Hyde’s touching the ball more and looking like a solid flex option.

Guys who are playing well right now but aren’t touching the ball much are guys like Raheem Mostert, Rex Burkhead, Alexander Mattison, Jordan Wilkins, Preston Williams, Marquise Goodwin, KeeSean Johnson, Parris Campbell, AJ Brown, Tre’Quan Smith, Diontae Johnson, Gerald Everett, and Taysom Hill. It might take an injury for most of these guys to see an uptick in volume, but all of these guys are worth a stash due to what they’ve been able to do with limited touches.

Rules of Trading

          The best owners are willing to pull the trigger at any moment, but it’s generally best to wait until after Week 2 before you start putting out offers. People aren’t generally going to panic after just one week, and they generally aren’t in a position for you to capitalize on. People may be concerned about their teams after Week 1, but you will be operating out of a stronger position if you have two weeks worth of concern to hold against them. The holes on people’s rosters will become clearer and more opportunities for you to capitalize on will present themselves. But, if you are going to start looking into trades now, it’s best to keep these things in mind:

1)    Sell HOT. Buy COLD.

As a general rule of thumb, don’t try to trade your cold or injured players. If a guy is sucking so bad that you don’t want him anymore, that means that everyone else in the league probably doesn’t want him either. When you offer cold players in trades you are generally tipping your hand that you are desperate to have them off your team.

Sure, it makes sense to get rid of under-performing players, but nobody is going to give you anything of value when that player is cold. Wait until he has a good game and then try to maximize his value in a trade. If you put out offers with him involved now, all you are going to do is sabotage your future negotiations by showing how desperate you are to get rid of him.

On the flip-side, don’t try to acquire elite talent until they are cold. It’s hard enough swinging trades for the top players. Make sure you are using recency bias to your advantage.

2)    Long-Term > Short-Term

          Sammy Watkins was great in Week 1 and Davante Adams was terrible, but what are the chances Watkins actually finishes the year with more fantasy points? Austin Ekeler was similarly great, but what are the chances he scores more than Nick Chubb or Todd Gurley over the next 15 games? Nobody would blame you for holding onto Watkins or Ekeler, but savvy owners are willing to upgrade them while their value is at its absolute highest. This is one of the main things to keep in mind when assessing your roster. Look at your hottest players – particularly the players who are performing at unsustainable rates – and try to upgrade them for guys who have been slightly less productive so far but you can be fairly sure will score more points over the rest of the year. This isn’t to say you should trade every productive player on your team, but you should certainly be willing to upgrade them if the opportunity is there. Which brings us to the next point…

3)    Know when to strike on frustrated owners.

          Some players are going to have great years, but haven’t had great starts. Guys like Davante Adams, Mike Evans & Juju are all likely to finish as top-10 receivers on the year, yet none rank higher than 39^th at the position through Week 1. Owners who drafted Joe Mixon or David Montgomery have likely been hindered by their slow starts and will perhaps find themselves sitting at 0-2 after next week. Try to target studs who have stacked two poor games to start the year, particularly on fantasy teams with losing records. There’s usually a short window at the beginning of the year to acquire struggling stars before the law of averages kicks in and they heat back up.

         

          Don’t bother trying to put together a package for a hot team with a good record. Wait for them to hit a bump in the road before you strike. If you send out offers too early to a team that doesn’t need it, and they reject it, you will be sabotaging your future negotiations. People remember the trades they reject and will be more likely to reject that same offer in the future – even if the offer makes sense at that time. Besides that, just remember –

4)    You want to GET the best player involved.

          Unless it’s closing in on playoff season, and you are on the outside looking in, then you should be trading up and not down. This means that you shouldn’t trade a great player to get 2 or 3 good players – that strategy only makes sense if you have multiple holes to fill on your roster and have no time left to fill them with waiver additions. With so much time left in the year, you still have time to make meaningful waiver additions to fill you team’s holes.

          When trading, focus on acquiring elite talent, because those players are not easily replaceable or found often on waivers. Keep this in mind and don’t be afraid to package multiple good players if it means you get back one great player. Sure, it might seem like a lot to give up 3 solid players for just one great one, but you are a lot more likely to find a replacement for good production from a waiver-wire addition than you are to find elite production off waivers. 3 for 1’s are the kinds of trades championship teams are made of.

Draft Strategies

          Don’t listen to anyone who tells you that you have to draft according to a certain strategy in order to win. You can win with any draft strategy – you just have to pick the right players. Some of the common narratives this year are you can’t win if you don’t take at least one RB in the first two rounds, and you can’t win by taking a QB early. Hogwash! You can win by implementing either or even both of those strategies – if you construct the rest of your roster properly. Just be sure to know what you are getting yourself into when you adopt a certain strategy – just wingin’ it is not a good idea!

          Below, we’ve outlined various Draft-Strategies, some of which are being deployed more than others. A lot of these strategies cross over and can be combined with each other. There’s no one strategy that you have to adopt. You’ll also notice that there are a few commonalities:

Almost every strategy involves waiting on QB.

Almost every strategy involves drafting a TE in the first 5 rounds.

Almost every strategy involves drafting at least 2 RB’s in the first 5 rounds.

And,

Almost every strategy involves selecting your defense and kicker with your last two picks.

          That doesn’t mean that you have to draft 2 RB’s and a TE in the first 5 rounds, wait on QB, and take your kicker and defense last, but those are the most commonly practiced strategies this year, and for good reason. Still, a case can be made for each and every one of these strategies. We’ll start with the strategies being implemented at the top of the draft, and work our way down from there.

          In the first 2 rounds, you have 14 Strategies to choose from: RB-WR, WR-RB, RB-RB, WR-WR, RB-QB, QB-RB, WR-QB, QB-WR, RB-TE, TE-RB, WR-TE, TE-WR, QB-TE, & TE-QB.

RB-WR: RB-WR is the most commonly practiced. It makes sense to balance your roster by taking a stud at two separate positions. You should take the RB first because there are less stud-RB’s than there are stud-WR’s. You’d rather have your pick of the RB’s in Round 1 before “settling” for whoever falls to you at WR (out of Tyreek Hill, OBJ, Juju, Adam Theilen, & Mike Evans) in Round 2.

WR-RB: It makes sense to take one of the elite WR’s if you love one of them and think that James Conner or Joe Mixon will fall to you in Round 2. Even if you aren’t expecting one of those two backs to fall, it makes sense if you feel comfortable taking a chance on an injury-prone stud (Todd Gurley or Dalvin Cook) or a high-upside youngster (Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, or Aaron Jones) to start your RB corps.   

RB-RB: It makes sense to pair two stud-RB’s to start, especially with RB being as scarce as it is, and you needing to start 2 of them. You can grab WR’s later, in Rounds 3-6, There are plenty of upper-tier options still left in rounds 3 & 4 (like Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, Stefon Diggs, Julian Edelman, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Boyd, and Chris Godwin) that you can start your WR corps with.

WR-WR: If you can get 2 stud-WR’s to start your draft, why not? You can take 2 RB’s & a TE, or even 3 RB’s with your next three picks. The WR’s in the first two rounds are safer investments than the RB’s because they touch the ball less often and are therefore less likely to get hurt. You can get by at RB by loading up in the middle and late-rounds.   

RB-QB: The idea is to pair a stud-RB with Pat Mahomes, and then get your WR1, RB2, and TE in Rounds 3, 4, and 5.

QB-RB: The same idea as RB-QB. It makes sense to get Pat Mahomes first and then settle for whichever RB falls to you in Round 2.

WR-QB: The idea is to use your first two picks on two relatively safe assets – a top WR and the best QB in the game. It doesn’t make sense to invest at RB in the first 2 Rounds because of how injury-prone the position tends to be.

QB-WR: The same idea as WR-QB. It makes sense to get Pat Mahomes first and then settle for whichever WR falls to you in Round 2.

RB-TE: It makes sense to start with a stud at the two scarcest positions (RB & TE) and then stockpile middle-tier options at the deeper positions (WR & QB) after. If you think Travis Kelce will fall to you in Round 2, it makes sense to take your pick of the RB’s in Round 1.

TE-RB: The same idea as RB-TE. It makes sense to get Travis Kelce first if you don’t think he’ll be there in Round 2. Then you can settle for whichever RB falls to you. You can get WR’s and a QB later.

WR-TE: Not a lot of people are using this strategy, although, it’s not entirely illogical. The idea would be to pair a stud-WR with the best TE, and to then take RB’s in rounds 3, 4, and possibly 5 to make up for passing on them in the first 2 rounds.

TE-WR: The same idea as WR-TE. It makes sense to get the top option at the scarcest position (Travis Kelce) first and then settle for the safest asset available (whichever WR falls to you) in Round 2.

QB-TE: The logic here would be to pair the highest-scoring player in fantasy (Pat Mahomes) with the top-option at the scarcest position (Travis Kelce). It makes sense if you believe that you can find value at RB & WR in the middle-to-late rounds.

TE-QB: The same idea as QB-TE. It makes sense if you think it’ll be easier to get Kelce in the 1^st round and Mahomes in the 2^nd.

         

          Those are your 14 options to start the Draft. Once you decide how to start your team in the first two rounds, you need to decide which approach to adopt in the middle-to-late rounds –

Balanced Approach: The idea is to build the strongest possible lineup by filling your starting lineup first before drafting bench positions. It makes sense to sacrifice some depth on your bench (at RB and WR) in order to acquire quality starting options at QB & TE first.

RB-Dominant/WR-Punt: It makes sense to wait on WR until the middle rounds or to pair one stud WR early with just two or three other late-round WR’s, leaving the draft with no more than 4 WR’s total. Ideally, you should take 3 RB’s, 1 WR, and 1 TE with your first 5 picks because the RB options are shaky after Round 6 and the WR options aren’t. You can get a solid WR2 in Round 6, and a WR3 in Round 7, or you can even grab more RB’s in those rounds and get the WR’s later. You can get your QB late too.

WR-Dominant/RB-punt: The idea is to take WR’s with 4 of your first 6 picks, taking 1 RB and 1 TE with the other 2 picks. Building the core of your team with WR’s makes sense because they are typically more stable assets than RB’s. You can take 1 RB that you are comfortable with in the early rounds and pair him with a few high-upside options (like Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Kareem Hunt, Jaylen Samuels, Rashaad Penny, & Matt Breida) in the middle rounds before rounding out your RB corps with high-floor guys (like Duke Johnson & Dion Lewis) and high-upside rookies (like Devin Singletary, Darwin Thompson, Justice Hill & Tony Pollard.)

QB-Early: The idea is to select your starting QB by Round 6, grabbing one of the few (other than Mahomes) who have separated themselves from the rest of the pack (like Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, or Baker Mayfield). Once you’ve drafted your starters at RB & WR (and possibly TE), it makes sense to take one of the top QB’s before adding depth at the other positions.

QB-Late: The idea is to load up on RB & WR depth in the middle rounds first, and then get your starting QB after Round 10. It makes sense to load up on RB’s and WR’s because you can still get a quality starting QB (like Phillip Rivers, Jared Goff, Big Ben, Jameis Winston, or Cam Newton) late.

Punt-QB: The idea is to wait until your very last pick to select a QB. It makes sense in 1QB leagues because there will always be available QB talent on waivers. Streaming the available quarterback with the best matchup each week can earn you just as many fantasy points as you’d earn if you simply selected a middle-tier QB (like Rivers, Goff, Big Ben, Winston, or Newton) and started them every week. If you don’t want to stream, you can just wait and select two QB’s late, and then rotate the two based on whichever one has the better matchup. You should prioritize acquiring RB & WR depth first because it will be difficult to find talent at those positions on the waiver wire.

TE-Early: The idea is to prioritize getting one of the top 6 TE’s, taking Travis Kelce in Round 1 or 2, George Kittle or Zach Ertz in Round 3, or O.J. Howard, Evan Engram, or Hunter Henry in Round 5. It makes sense because the TE’s available after that come with significantly more risk. Getting one of those 6 should give you a major advantage at the position.

TE-Late: The idea is to load up on RB’s & WR’s in the first 6 rounds before taking Jared Cook in the 7^th round, Vance McDonald in the 8^th, or Eric Ebron after that. It makes sense if you have faith in Cook, McDonald, and/or Ebron.  

Punt-TE: The idea is to wait until the double-digit rounds to pick your starting TE. It makes sense to just “punt” if you miss out on the top-6 options, especially if you are not a believer in Jared Cook, Vance McDonald, or Ebron in the middle rounds. It makes sense to pair 2 high-upside options late (like Mark Andrews, Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, or Dallas Goedert) together and hope that one of them “pops.” It also makes sense to pair one high-upside option with one high-floor option (like Delanie Walker, Kyle Rudolph, Austin Hooper, or Greg Olsen) if you want a little more security.

DEF-Early: Once you have filled your starting lineup and have selected one or two bench players, it makes sense to grab one of the top defenses, whether it’s the Bears’ defense in Round 9, or the Ravens, Rams, or Vikings defense in Rounds 10-12. The options at RB, WR, and TE are a crapshoot after Round 10 anyways, so you might as well get a top defense first before selecting from the crapshoot options available at the skill positions.

Punt-DEF: It doesn’t make sense to reach on one of the top defenses in Rounds 10-12, especially when there are still possibly valuable sleepers available at RB, WR, and TE. You can still get a solid defense (like Dallas, Denver, Cleveland, Buffalo, or Tennessee) with your last pick. It can also be more effective to just stream the available defense with the best matchup each week, so it doesn’t make sense to waste an early round pick on one if you are going to just end up dropping them anyways.

K-Early: If you’re comfortable with your bench depth, it makes sense to grab a kicker around Round 11 or 12 if there’s one available (like Greg Zurlein, Justin Tucker, Will Lutz, or Harrison Butker) who could end up making a difference.  

Punt-K: It doesn’t make sense to reach for the top kickers because you can still find a reliable kicker with your last pick. It doesn’t matter if you have the worst kicker out of every team in your league, because even the worst kickers are still a stable source of points. You should prioritize building depth at RB and WR before taking a kicker last.

          See, depending on how you choose to look at it, every single one of these strategies holds up logistically. Some strategies offer a better chance of success than others, but none of them can be ruled out as “impossible” to win with. As long as you have a plan, and stick to it, don’t be afraid to do things your way.