Making The Case Against Making Trade Offers Post-Week 1

            Now that the first week’s waiver claims have been processed, you’re probably thinking about heading to the trade market & putting out some offers…

But that might not be such a good idea…

Here’s my case against making trade offers post-Week 1:

 

-        No leverage

            One of the most important factors in being able to craft a successful trade is being able to exploit leverage. When your opponent has a clear positional weakness, they are more likely to overpay for your assets at that position. The problem is, there’s almost no leverage to exploit post-Week 1. Unless your opponent drafted MT, OBJ, and Deebo, or both James Conner & Le’Veon Bell, there probably isn’t a whole lot of positional leverage to exploit.

 

-        No panic

            This goes hand in hand with “no leverage.” Even if a player’s team underperformed or got injured in Week 1, they still probably aren’t panicking about it yet. Hayden Hurst had a bad Week 1, but nobody who rosters him is going out & overpaying for another TE based off one bad week.

Have patience, let the bad weeks stack up, attrition set in, and then capitalize when the panic meter has risen.

 

-        Potentially Sabotaging Future Negotiations

            This is probably the most important factor in why you should try to avoid sending out trade offers post-Week 1. Because the panic meter & leverage levels are still relatively low, you could be sending out an offer post-Week 1 that gets rejected, that would have otherwise been accepted had you waited 2 more weeks to send it. Now, instead of sending that offer Week 3, and starting there, you go into Week 3 making an offer that the other person already rejected. This makes them less likely to accept that offer the second time because they have it in their subconscious that they already rejected that same offer once before.

 

            This doesn’t mean you should NEVER send out trade offers post-Week 1, because there are certain instances where a team gets hit hard Week 1 and does have a clear & glaring weakness that you can leverage & exploit. But if you don't have a CLEAR avenue to exploiting a weakness that jumps off the page, understand that most teams will reject offers post-Week 1 & choose to exercise patience. You’ll be better off for it in the long-run.

All-Fade List

The All-Fade List:

-        Dalvin Cook

-        Todd Gurley

-        Chris Carson

-        David Johnson

-        Mark Ingram

-        Adam Thielen

-        AJ Green

-        TY Hilton

-        Tyler Higbee

-        Marlon Mack

 

Dalvin Cook - Dalvin Cook has played in 28/48 games so far & you're taking him over RB's like Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, & Joe Mixon, who have played at least 14 games every year...

 

All so you can have just a 1-3 PPG advantage...

 

Think about that for a second.

 

Is it really worth it?

 

 

Todd Gurley – If you’ve already read this article I wrote on Todd Gurley, you probably could have guessed he was going to make my All-Fade list.

 

The risk just isn’t worth the reward in RD3. Just take Mark Andrews or Zach Ertz where you’d take Gurley & grab Raheem Mostert 2 rounds later instead.

 

 

Chris Carson – Read the tea leaves... the team drafted Deejay Dallas in RD4 & then went out & signed Carlos Hyde… 

 

They don’t trust Carson’s health – and why should they?

 

He hasn’t played a full season since his senior year of high-school…

 

 

David Johnson – A soon-to-be 29-year old RB who hasn’t averaged over 3.7 YPC or 1.8 yards after-contact in 3 straight seasons… who’s fantasy ceiling is dependent upon targets to complement his below-average rushing efficiency… on a team with another RB who will steal targets… at a RD4 asking price?

 

NO. THANK. YOU.

 

 

Mark Ingram – Only 202 carries in 15 games last year, but buoyed by 15 TD’s – including 5 receiving – on just 26 receptions. Throw J.K. Dobbins, an improving Gus Edwards, a healthy Hollywood, and rookie Devin Duvernay into the mix… & Ingram will be lucky to hit 8 TD’s & 20 receptions this year. That kind of TD-dependency just isn’t worth a 5^th or 6^th round asking price. Take D’Andre Swift instead.

 

 

Adam Thielen – Thielen is probably the guy I’m most concerned about fading, outside of Dalvin Cook. I was all-in on him last year & it’s not hard to envision a sky-high ceiling for him again in 2020.

But this is an offense that just doesn’t project to be built on the pass anywhere near the level it was when Thielen excelled in 2018 (466 attempts last year compared to 606 attempts in 2018) & you can fall in love with any WR ranked 7-25.

 

Are you sure you want to fall in love with the 30-year old with just two 1,000-yard seasons on his resume & recent soft-tissue injuries?

 

 

TY Hilton & AJ Green – Again, why are you taking risks (WR26 ADP for Hilton & WR28 ADP for Green) on 30+ year old WR’s with recent injury issues when there’s still high-upside WR youth left on the board (like Stefon Diggs at WR27, Michael Gallup at WR29, Hollywood at WR30, Tyler Boyd at WR32, Brandin Cooks at WR36, Darius Slayton at WR39, Diontae Johnson at WR40, & CeeDee Lamb at WR40?)

 

Some risks just aren’t worth taking.

 

 

Tyler Higbee – According to FantasyPros, Tyler Higbee is currently going as TE7 at 69 overall ADP in .5PPR leagues – the back-end of the 6^th round & ahead of TE’s like Evan Engram & Hayden Hurst… this is absolutely baffling to me – for many reasons…

 

 

Marlon Mack – Marlon Mack was already a TD-dependent fantasy option. Now, with superfreak Jonathan Taylor in town, Mack can expect his 8 rushing TD’s from last year to be cut in half. With no receiving role to buffer that loss – that leaves Mack as nothing more than a TD-dependent, unpredictable, and thus relatively useless handcuff. He should NOT be going ahead of high-upside RB’s like Antonio Gibson, Zack Moss, or Tony Pollard.