The case
can be made for Kenyan Drake as not just a top-5 RB in 2020, but as a top-3 RB. He’s
got every factor working in his favor.
√ Better w/ BAMA & MIA Than You Think
√ Near-Elite Athlete
√ Dual-Threat Weapon
√ Top O-Line/Scheme
√ D-Hop Helps
√ No Competition
√ Poor Defense
Let's start with last year.
Let's start with last year.
Kenyan Drake absolutely EXPLODED in Arizona to finish
out 2019.
He was so hot he might have burst into flames if he stepped outside on a hot day in the Arizona desert...
Terrible jokes aside…
His 16-game pace with AZ:
246/1286/16 Rushing
56/342/0 Receiving
In Drake’s 8 games with the team, he was RB3, behind only CMC & Derrick Henry.
56/342/0 Receiving
In Drake’s 8 games with the team, he was RB3, behind only CMC & Derrick Henry.
His 19.9 fantasy PPG would have ranked behind only CMC
& Dalvin on the year.
He averaged 18.8 touches per-game (302 touch pace)
& 5.2 YPC.
His 16-game pace of 1,286 rushing yards would have
ranked 5th in the NFL.
& his 16-game pace of 56 receptions would have ranked 9th among RBs.
That pace would have made him just the 5th RB last season (along with CMC, Zeke, Fournette, & Cook) to have at least 1,100 rushing yards & 50+ receptions…
& his 16-game pace of 56 receptions would have ranked 9th among RBs.
That pace would have made him just the 5th RB last season (along with CMC, Zeke, Fournette, & Cook) to have at least 1,100 rushing yards & 50+ receptions…
If you’re worried about why it took so long for this
explosion to happen, don’t be.
It was only a matter of time.
Drake has been criminally hindered by a set of irregularly poor circumstances throughout his entire collegiate & professional career.
It was only a matter of time.
Drake has been criminally hindered by a set of irregularly poor circumstances throughout his entire collegiate & professional career.
Let’s take a look back to where it all started:
2012: Alabama (FR)
Eddie Lacy was a junior who’d balled out & was entrenched
as the starter. Can you blame Drake for being stuck behind him as a true
freshman? Drake still made the most out of his 42 carries, gaining 6.7 YPC
& 5 TD’s. That’s INCREDIBLE efficiency.
Season Splits:
Eddie Lacy (JR)
204/1322/6.5/17
22/189/2 Receiving
Yeldon (FR)
175/1108/6.3/12
11/131/1 Receiving
Drake (FR)
42/281/6.7/5 *
0 Receptions
2013: Alabama (SO)
As a sophomore, Drake played ahead of freshman phenom Derrick
Henry, averaged a RIDICULOUS amount of yards per-carry again (7.5), & made plays
in the receiving game too.
If you want to hold it against Drake for playing
behind TJ Yeldon, hold it against Derrick Henry too.
Season Splits:
Yeldon (SO)
207/1235/6.0/14
20/180/0 Receiving
Drake (SO)
92/694/7.5/8 *
12/135/1 Receiving
D Henry (FR)
35/382/10.9/3 (WTF bro)
1/61/1 Receiving
2014: Alabama (JR)
Drake only played in 5 games, missing 9 due to a
fractured ankle, but he was EXPLOSIVE on his 27 offensive touches before he
went down, taking them for 271 yards & 6 TD’s. Again, INCREDIBLE efficiency.
& Derrick Henry was still behind Yeldon (!!)
Season Splits:
Yeldon (JR)
194/979/5.0/11
15/180/1 Receiving
15/180/1 Receiving
D Henry (SO)
172/990/5.8/11
5/133/2 Receiving
5/133/2 Receiving
Drake (JR) (5 games)
22/112/5.1/4
5/159/2 Receiving *
2015: Alabama (SR)
As a senior, Drake made the most out of his 77 carries
& was also heavily involved in the receiving game.
Coming back from the past year’s injury, he ended up
getting leapfrogged by the beast that is Derrick Henry, who had a historically great
Heisman-winning season.
But can you really blame Drake for that?
But can you really blame Drake for that?
He balled out when given the chance.
& he was also able to return from an arm injury (which occurred while making a tackle on special teams & cost him 2 games) to take a key 4th quarter kickoff in the National Championship back for a 95-yard touchdown. What a way to finish a college career.
Season Splits:
D Henry (JR)
395/2219/5.6/28 (Good Lord)
11/91/0 Receiving
Drake (SR)
77/408/5.3/1
29/276/1 Receiving *
D Harris (FR)
46/157/3.4/1
4/13/0 Receiving
B Scarbrough (FR)
18/104/5.8/1
0 Receptions
Drake finished his Bama career with:
233/1495/6.4/18 Rushing
46/570/12.4/4 Receiving
INCREDIBLY EFFICIENT.
He averaged 6.4 YPC & didn’t have a single year
with less than 5.1 YPC.
Despite that, it’s easy to see why he slipped to the 3rd
round of the 2016 Draft amid concerns about his durability & unproven ability
to handle a heavy workload.
Some players see more than the 279 touches Drake was given in college in just one season (Drake never had more than 92 carries in a single year) & the two injuries were a bit concerning.
But now that he’s played 4 full seasons in the NFL without missing a single game to injury & has maintained his incredible efficiency in a workhorse role with the Cardinals, can we start to put those worries to rest?
Some players see more than the 279 touches Drake was given in college in just one season (Drake never had more than 92 carries in a single year) & the two injuries were a bit concerning.
But now that he’s played 4 full seasons in the NFL without missing a single game to injury & has maintained his incredible efficiency in a workhorse role with the Cardinals, can we start to put those worries to rest?
Drake’s been damn near unstoppable as a pro.
2016: Miami (Rookie Year)
Drake was drafted in Round 3 by the Dolphins to be second-year RB Jay Ajayi’s backup.
Drake was drafted in Round 3 by the Dolphins to be second-year RB Jay Ajayi’s backup.
The Dolphins gave Drake 33 carries as a rookie, which
he took for 179 yards & 2 TD’s (5.4 YPC). He also had 9 receptions for 56
yards.
Again, the stellar efficiency was there.
Again, the stellar efficiency was there.
2017: Miami (Year 2)
Drake followed up a solid rookie year with oh you know
just THE MOST EFFICIENT SEASON EVER recorded by PFF…
No biggie.
No biggie.
He took 133 carries for 644 yards & 3 TD’s (4.8
YPC) & gained 4.29 yards after-contact per-attempt (!!)
That’s right, Drake gained 571 of his 644 rushing
yards AFTER contact in 2017.
You’d think that Drake had immediately become the guy
once the Dolphins traded Ajayi to the Eagles after Week 8, but their brilliant
coaching staff thought a committee approach with Damien Williams (who averaged
3.9 YPC that year) was a better idea…
It wasn’t until Week 12 when Damien was injured that the Dolphins coaching staff
was forced to give Drake more touches. As some of you may remember, Drake went
on a tear during that final stretch (averaging 105.2 yards from scrimmage in
his six starts) & carried a lot of fantasy teams to the Championship Round (scoring
23+ fantasy points Weeks 13/14/15)…
He did this while on the Dolphins...
2018: Miami (Year 3)
After Drake averaged 5.0 YPC combined over his first two NFL seasons and BROKE THE PFF RECORD for most yards after-contact per-attempt in 2017, the coaching staff made the obvious decision of giving Drake even less carries in 2018…
After Drake averaged 5.0 YPC combined over his first two NFL seasons and BROKE THE PFF RECORD for most yards after-contact per-attempt in 2017, the coaching staff made the obvious decision of giving Drake even less carries in 2018…
Less than they gave 35-year old Frank Gore (156 carries) …
Drake took the spit in the face which was the 120
carries he was given & took them for 535 yards & 4 TD’s (4.5 YPC)
He also showed out as a receiver, taking 53 receptions for 477 yards (9.0 YPC) & 5 more TD’s.
That’s 1,012 yards & 9 total TD’s on less than 175 touches folks…
He also showed out as a receiver, taking 53 receptions for 477 yards (9.0 YPC) & 5 more TD’s.
That’s 1,012 yards & 9 total TD’s on less than 175 touches folks…
In a downtrodden Miami offense…
2019: Miami/Arizona (Year 4)
After showing incredible playmaking ability in college as well as his first 3 NFL seasons, and never averaging less than 4.5 YPC, you’d think 2019 would have been the year Miami finally decided to let Drake loose.
Instead, as the lone ranger on a Dolphins team that:
Traded Ryan Tannehill & acquired Josh Rosen.
After showing incredible playmaking ability in college as well as his first 3 NFL seasons, and never averaging less than 4.5 YPC, you’d think 2019 would have been the year Miami finally decided to let Drake loose.
Instead, as the lone ranger on a Dolphins team that:
Traded Ryan Tannehill & acquired Josh Rosen.
Let Ja’Wuan James & Frank Gore leave.
Added nothing at WR to pair with Devante Parker.
Traded cornerstone left tackle Laremy Tunsil.
& went into the year with 4 new starting offensive
lineman…
Drake was given more than 10 carries just once in the first seven weeks & was held out (with his name in trade talks) in Week 8 before being traded to the Cardinals pre-Week 9.
Drake was given more than 10 carries just once in the first seven weeks & was held out (with his name in trade talks) in Week 8 before being traded to the Cardinals pre-Week 9.
& we all know what happened after that...
Drake went absolutely bazonkas in his first game with AZ – on a short week against SF at that!
He finished his first game with 15 carries for 110 yards, a TD, a successful 2-point conversion, & another 4 catches for 52 yards …
And from that point forward, Kliff Kingsbury seemed to realize what nobody in Miami ever seemed to grasp – maybe you should feed this guy the friggin ball.
Drake went absolutely bazonkas in his first game with AZ – on a short week against SF at that!
He finished his first game with 15 carries for 110 yards, a TD, a successful 2-point conversion, & another 4 catches for 52 yards …
And from that point forward, Kliff Kingsbury seemed to realize what nobody in Miami ever seemed to grasp – maybe you should feed this guy the friggin ball.
Drake was given at least 10 carries in every single
game as a Cardinal (including two games with 20+ carries) & he had at least
3 receptions in 6 out of 8 games.
Mind you, this was while coming over from a midseason trade & learning the playbook on the fly.
Not only did Drake keep Chase Edmonds on the sidelines, but he kept David Johnson pretty much entirely off the field as well.
It was mentioned at the top, but deserves mentioning again: his 16-game pace would have made him just 1 of 5 RB’s (!!) last year to have over 1,100 rushing yards & 50+ receptions.
Mind you, this was while coming over from a midseason trade & learning the playbook on the fly.
Not only did Drake keep Chase Edmonds on the sidelines, but he kept David Johnson pretty much entirely off the field as well.
It was mentioned at the top, but deserves mentioning again: his 16-game pace would have made him just 1 of 5 RB’s (!!) last year to have over 1,100 rushing yards & 50+ receptions.
Some may want to chalk up that success with the
Cardinals as a “fluke” or “small sample size”, but all of the evidence suggests
otherwise:
√ Efficiency Was Always Present, Volume Wasn’t
√ Near-Elite Athlete
√ Dual-Threat Weapon
√ Top O-Line/Scheme
√ D-Hop Helps
√ No Competition
√ Poor Defense
It’s all there.
All of it.
All of it.
We already talked about the incredible efficiency at
Bama & in Miami.
His combine performance only backs up the hype.
Drake’s 34.5” vertical & 123” broad jump are solid,
but where Drake really stood out was in the 40 & shuttle drills.
His 4.45 40 puts him in the 91st percentile for RB’s.
His 4.21 shuttle was better than both CMC’s (4.22)
& Saquon Barkley’s (4.24).
It’s clear on tape that Drake is fast, agile, and when
he plants his foot & cuts, he can really get-up-and-go.
His combine numbers back that up.
√ Dual-Threat
Drake’s speed & agility make him especially
dangerous as a receiving threat & a perfect fit for a Kliff Kingsbury
offense that wants to air the ball out.
Drake’s shown on multiple occasions that he has 50+
catch upside & he had a 16-game pace of 56 receptions with the Cardinals
last year.
This is particularly important when considering the fact that Derrick Henry was the only top-5 fantasy back last year to finish the season with less than 49 receptions.
Drake’s one of the few backs in the league who can
heavily produce in both facets of the game.
√ Top-O-Line/Scheme
& Speaking of scheme fit.
How great of a scheme is it for RB’s?
Pretty. Friggin. Great…
We already talked about how much Kingsbury used Drake in the receiving game, now let’s talk about the running game.
How great of a scheme is it for RB’s?
Pretty. Friggin. Great…
We already talked about how much Kingsbury used Drake in the receiving game, now let’s talk about the running game.
Arizona was No. 1 (!!) in the NFL with 2.55 yards
before contact per rushing attempt.
Number friggin 1…
With Drake, the mesh was even better. Drake averaged an ABSURD 3.2 yards BEFORE contact in his 8 games.
Is there some regression due there? Absolutely.
Regardless, we’re talking about a top-5 unit/scheme in
terms of creating yardage before contact.
Arizona returns 4 starters on the offensive line
(minus AQ Shipley) & drafted tackle Josh Jones in Round 3.
√ D-Hop Helps
It’s even more impressive that Drake was able to find &
create so much space last year, despite defenses having only him to focus on…
other than old man Fitz & 2nd year Christian Kirk.
Adding DeAndre Hopkins should keep safeties out of the box & allow Drake to run even more freely this year.
If the addition puts a dent in Drake’s target total, it shouldn’t be by much. At worst, Drake will be option 1B to Hopkins’ 1A, in an offense that looks like it’ll take steps forward as a whole.
Adding DeAndre Hopkins should keep safeties out of the box & allow Drake to run even more freely this year.
If the addition puts a dent in Drake’s target total, it shouldn’t be by much. At worst, Drake will be option 1B to Hopkins’ 1A, in an offense that looks like it’ll take steps forward as a whole.
Hop will get his, but it doesn’t have to come at the
expense of Drake.
In fact, it might even help.
Speaking of competition for touches – there really is
none.
In Drake’s 8 games with AZ, the RB touch distribution
was:
Drake: 151 touches (85%)
DJ: 24 touches (13.5%)
Edmonds: 2 touches (1.5%)
If Drake can command 85% of the RB touches in an offense with David Johnson & Chase Edmonds, we should peg his floor at 80% this year in an offense that just traded DJ & only brought in Eno Benjamin as a 7th round pick.
That’s workhorse status.
By now, you’re probably wondering:
“Is this article done yet?”
Nope! Not quite…
Let’s talk about the Arizona defense!
“Is this article done yet?”
Nope! Not quite…
Let’s talk about the Arizona defense!
The Arizona defense allowed the 5th most
points in the NFL last season.
Only the Dolphins, Panthers, Giants, & Bucs allowed more points per-game.
They added Isaiah Simmons in the draft, but that was their only real addition.
Simple Math: Bad Defense = Offense Needs to Score = Lots of Fantasy Fun
Only the Dolphins, Panthers, Giants, & Bucs allowed more points per-game.
They added Isaiah Simmons in the draft, but that was their only real addition.
Simple Math: Bad Defense = Offense Needs to Score = Lots of Fantasy Fun
Make of his long-term value what you will, but ALL signs
point to a MASSIVE 2020 for Kenyan Drake.
& there very easily could be a whole lot of meat
left on that bone if Drake balls out in 2020 & gets an extension from the
Cardinals.
Yes, I’ve heard, RB’s die the moment they turn 26, but
Drake just turned 26 in January & has 4 full seasons left before he even
goes into his age-30 season.
He has less combined touches in 4 years at Bama + 4 years in the NFL (879) than Jonathan Taylor has had the last 3 at Wisconsin (968).
He has less combined touches in 4 years at Bama + 4 years in the NFL (879) than Jonathan Taylor has had the last 3 at Wisconsin (968).
There’s plenty of tread left on his tires & he’s in
arguably the best situation for any RB in the entire NFL…
There is absolutely no reason Kenyan Drake can’t finish as a top-3 RB in 2020.
There is absolutely no reason Kenyan Drake can’t finish as a top-3 RB in 2020.
