Draft Strategies

          Don’t listen to anyone who tells you that you have to draft according to a certain strategy in order to win. You can win with any draft strategy – you just have to pick the right players. Some of the common narratives this year are you can’t win if you don’t take at least one RB in the first two rounds, and you can’t win by taking a QB early. Hogwash! You can win by implementing either or even both of those strategies – if you construct the rest of your roster properly. Just be sure to know what you are getting yourself into when you adopt a certain strategy – just wingin’ it is not a good idea!

          Below, we’ve outlined various Draft-Strategies, some of which are being deployed more than others. A lot of these strategies cross over and can be combined with each other. There’s no one strategy that you have to adopt. You’ll also notice that there are a few commonalities:

Almost every strategy involves waiting on QB.

Almost every strategy involves drafting a TE in the first 5 rounds.

Almost every strategy involves drafting at least 2 RB’s in the first 5 rounds.

And,

Almost every strategy involves selecting your defense and kicker with your last two picks.

          That doesn’t mean that you have to draft 2 RB’s and a TE in the first 5 rounds, wait on QB, and take your kicker and defense last, but those are the most commonly practiced strategies this year, and for good reason. Still, a case can be made for each and every one of these strategies. We’ll start with the strategies being implemented at the top of the draft, and work our way down from there.

          In the first 2 rounds, you have 14 Strategies to choose from: RB-WR, WR-RB, RB-RB, WR-WR, RB-QB, QB-RB, WR-QB, QB-WR, RB-TE, TE-RB, WR-TE, TE-WR, QB-TE, & TE-QB.

RB-WR: RB-WR is the most commonly practiced. It makes sense to balance your roster by taking a stud at two separate positions. You should take the RB first because there are less stud-RB’s than there are stud-WR’s. You’d rather have your pick of the RB’s in Round 1 before “settling” for whoever falls to you at WR (out of Tyreek Hill, OBJ, Juju, Adam Theilen, & Mike Evans) in Round 2.

WR-RB: It makes sense to take one of the elite WR’s if you love one of them and think that James Conner or Joe Mixon will fall to you in Round 2. Even if you aren’t expecting one of those two backs to fall, it makes sense if you feel comfortable taking a chance on an injury-prone stud (Todd Gurley or Dalvin Cook) or a high-upside youngster (Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, or Aaron Jones) to start your RB corps.   

RB-RB: It makes sense to pair two stud-RB’s to start, especially with RB being as scarce as it is, and you needing to start 2 of them. You can grab WR’s later, in Rounds 3-6, There are plenty of upper-tier options still left in rounds 3 & 4 (like Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, Stefon Diggs, Julian Edelman, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Boyd, and Chris Godwin) that you can start your WR corps with.

WR-WR: If you can get 2 stud-WR’s to start your draft, why not? You can take 2 RB’s & a TE, or even 3 RB’s with your next three picks. The WR’s in the first two rounds are safer investments than the RB’s because they touch the ball less often and are therefore less likely to get hurt. You can get by at RB by loading up in the middle and late-rounds.   

RB-QB: The idea is to pair a stud-RB with Pat Mahomes, and then get your WR1, RB2, and TE in Rounds 3, 4, and 5.

QB-RB: The same idea as RB-QB. It makes sense to get Pat Mahomes first and then settle for whichever RB falls to you in Round 2.

WR-QB: The idea is to use your first two picks on two relatively safe assets – a top WR and the best QB in the game. It doesn’t make sense to invest at RB in the first 2 Rounds because of how injury-prone the position tends to be.

QB-WR: The same idea as WR-QB. It makes sense to get Pat Mahomes first and then settle for whichever WR falls to you in Round 2.

RB-TE: It makes sense to start with a stud at the two scarcest positions (RB & TE) and then stockpile middle-tier options at the deeper positions (WR & QB) after. If you think Travis Kelce will fall to you in Round 2, it makes sense to take your pick of the RB’s in Round 1.

TE-RB: The same idea as RB-TE. It makes sense to get Travis Kelce first if you don’t think he’ll be there in Round 2. Then you can settle for whichever RB falls to you. You can get WR’s and a QB later.

WR-TE: Not a lot of people are using this strategy, although, it’s not entirely illogical. The idea would be to pair a stud-WR with the best TE, and to then take RB’s in rounds 3, 4, and possibly 5 to make up for passing on them in the first 2 rounds.

TE-WR: The same idea as WR-TE. It makes sense to get the top option at the scarcest position (Travis Kelce) first and then settle for the safest asset available (whichever WR falls to you) in Round 2.

QB-TE: The logic here would be to pair the highest-scoring player in fantasy (Pat Mahomes) with the top-option at the scarcest position (Travis Kelce). It makes sense if you believe that you can find value at RB & WR in the middle-to-late rounds.

TE-QB: The same idea as QB-TE. It makes sense if you think it’ll be easier to get Kelce in the 1^st round and Mahomes in the 2^nd.

         

          Those are your 14 options to start the Draft. Once you decide how to start your team in the first two rounds, you need to decide which approach to adopt in the middle-to-late rounds –

Balanced Approach: The idea is to build the strongest possible lineup by filling your starting lineup first before drafting bench positions. It makes sense to sacrifice some depth on your bench (at RB and WR) in order to acquire quality starting options at QB & TE first.

RB-Dominant/WR-Punt: It makes sense to wait on WR until the middle rounds or to pair one stud WR early with just two or three other late-round WR’s, leaving the draft with no more than 4 WR’s total. Ideally, you should take 3 RB’s, 1 WR, and 1 TE with your first 5 picks because the RB options are shaky after Round 6 and the WR options aren’t. You can get a solid WR2 in Round 6, and a WR3 in Round 7, or you can even grab more RB’s in those rounds and get the WR’s later. You can get your QB late too.

WR-Dominant/RB-punt: The idea is to take WR’s with 4 of your first 6 picks, taking 1 RB and 1 TE with the other 2 picks. Building the core of your team with WR’s makes sense because they are typically more stable assets than RB’s. You can take 1 RB that you are comfortable with in the early rounds and pair him with a few high-upside options (like Latavius Murray, Darrell Henderson, Kareem Hunt, Jaylen Samuels, Rashaad Penny, & Matt Breida) in the middle rounds before rounding out your RB corps with high-floor guys (like Duke Johnson & Dion Lewis) and high-upside rookies (like Devin Singletary, Darwin Thompson, Justice Hill & Tony Pollard.)

QB-Early: The idea is to select your starting QB by Round 6, grabbing one of the few (other than Mahomes) who have separated themselves from the rest of the pack (like Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, or Baker Mayfield). Once you’ve drafted your starters at RB & WR (and possibly TE), it makes sense to take one of the top QB’s before adding depth at the other positions.

QB-Late: The idea is to load up on RB & WR depth in the middle rounds first, and then get your starting QB after Round 10. It makes sense to load up on RB’s and WR’s because you can still get a quality starting QB (like Phillip Rivers, Jared Goff, Big Ben, Jameis Winston, or Cam Newton) late.

Punt-QB: The idea is to wait until your very last pick to select a QB. It makes sense in 1QB leagues because there will always be available QB talent on waivers. Streaming the available quarterback with the best matchup each week can earn you just as many fantasy points as you’d earn if you simply selected a middle-tier QB (like Rivers, Goff, Big Ben, Winston, or Newton) and started them every week. If you don’t want to stream, you can just wait and select two QB’s late, and then rotate the two based on whichever one has the better matchup. You should prioritize acquiring RB & WR depth first because it will be difficult to find talent at those positions on the waiver wire.

TE-Early: The idea is to prioritize getting one of the top 6 TE’s, taking Travis Kelce in Round 1 or 2, George Kittle or Zach Ertz in Round 3, or O.J. Howard, Evan Engram, or Hunter Henry in Round 5. It makes sense because the TE’s available after that come with significantly more risk. Getting one of those 6 should give you a major advantage at the position.

TE-Late: The idea is to load up on RB’s & WR’s in the first 6 rounds before taking Jared Cook in the 7^th round, Vance McDonald in the 8^th, or Eric Ebron after that. It makes sense if you have faith in Cook, McDonald, and/or Ebron.  

Punt-TE: The idea is to wait until the double-digit rounds to pick your starting TE. It makes sense to just “punt” if you miss out on the top-6 options, especially if you are not a believer in Jared Cook, Vance McDonald, or Ebron in the middle rounds. It makes sense to pair 2 high-upside options late (like Mark Andrews, Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, or Dallas Goedert) together and hope that one of them “pops.” It also makes sense to pair one high-upside option with one high-floor option (like Delanie Walker, Kyle Rudolph, Austin Hooper, or Greg Olsen) if you want a little more security.

DEF-Early: Once you have filled your starting lineup and have selected one or two bench players, it makes sense to grab one of the top defenses, whether it’s the Bears’ defense in Round 9, or the Ravens, Rams, or Vikings defense in Rounds 10-12. The options at RB, WR, and TE are a crapshoot after Round 10 anyways, so you might as well get a top defense first before selecting from the crapshoot options available at the skill positions.

Punt-DEF: It doesn’t make sense to reach on one of the top defenses in Rounds 10-12, especially when there are still possibly valuable sleepers available at RB, WR, and TE. You can still get a solid defense (like Dallas, Denver, Cleveland, Buffalo, or Tennessee) with your last pick. It can also be more effective to just stream the available defense with the best matchup each week, so it doesn’t make sense to waste an early round pick on one if you are going to just end up dropping them anyways.

K-Early: If you’re comfortable with your bench depth, it makes sense to grab a kicker around Round 11 or 12 if there’s one available (like Greg Zurlein, Justin Tucker, Will Lutz, or Harrison Butker) who could end up making a difference.  

Punt-K: It doesn’t make sense to reach for the top kickers because you can still find a reliable kicker with your last pick. It doesn’t matter if you have the worst kicker out of every team in your league, because even the worst kickers are still a stable source of points. You should prioritize building depth at RB and WR before taking a kicker last.

          See, depending on how you choose to look at it, every single one of these strategies holds up logistically. Some strategies offer a better chance of success than others, but none of them can be ruled out as “impossible” to win with. As long as you have a plan, and stick to it, don’t be afraid to do things your way.

Expected Pecking Orders

          Here, we’ve ranked teams according to which situations we believe will offer skill players the best opportunities to score fantasy points. We favored offenses which will score the most points, generate the most yardage, and have the most offensive line stability. Since we use PPR scoring by default, we favored passing teams, because more receptions = more points. We also penalized teams with running quarterbacks who tend to steal opportunities (points) from the skill players on their team.

          The purpose of this exercise is to determine the “pecking order” of each team by examining each player’s relative importance to their squad. This will help us to clarify the value and role of each player. It will also help us to unearth situations in which players could potentially find themselves stepping into major roles.

          Keep in mind that the value of a role is greatly tied to the strength of the offense. The 5^th, 4^th, or 3^rd option in a great offense may be more valuable than being the 3^rd, 2^nd, or even 1^st option in a terrible offense.

          So, without further ado, here’s how we expect the pecking orders to shake out around the league this year… let’s get to it!

1. Kansas City Chiefs

          1A. Tyreke Hill??

          1B. Travis Kelce

          3A. Damien Williams??

          3B. Sammy Watkins

          5. Carlos Hyde/Darwin Thompson??

          6. Mecole Hardman

          7. Demarcus Robinson

          As of now, Tyreke Hill has avoided suspension, although we can’t totally rule out the possibility that he still could be suspended if more evidence of some sort comes out against him. Even with Hill in the picture, Travis Kelce is basically tied as the top receiving option on the NFL’s best passing offense – and he plays at fantasy’s shallowest position. This makes him a legitimate mid-first round pick. A case could be made for him to go as high as 5^th overall, after the 4 “Super-RB’s” of Barkley, McCaffery, Kamara, & Elliot, and that’s with or without a Hill suspension. Having a 300-point TE is that valuable in fantasy.

         

            We’re expecting a split committee from Williams, Hyde, and Thompson. There’s going to be a lot of points to be scored in this offense, so each back could hold value, but if it’s anywhere near a committee, Hyde or Thompson is going to be the far better value at their ADP. Williams should retain value even if Hyde or Thompson emerges, but he carries a lot more risk at his current ADP. Hardman looks to be clearly ahead of Robinson and is absolutely worth a late-round flier with the upside he carries.

2. New Orleans Saints

          1A. Alvin Kamara

          1B. Michael Thomas

          3A. Jared Cook

          3B. Latavius Murray

          5A. Tre’Quan Smith??

          5C. Ted Ginn Jr.??

          7. Taysom Hill??

          This offense is going to be funneled through Kamara and Thomas. You could and should take Kamara as the first RB and Thomas as the first WR in fantasy. They’re that good. After those two, it’s hard to tell who the 3^rd guy is going to be, and it will probably vary on a weekly basis. Cook, Murray, Smith, and Ginn should all have some huge weeks this year, but expect some inconsistency. Cook is the likeliest to seize the 3^rd slot in the pecking order. Last year in Oakland, he scored 198 fantasy points on 101 targets, finishing as TE5. There’s no reason he can’t duplicate that production this year. Ultimately, it all depends on how well Latavius Murray runs, and how involved Smith and Ginn are. If Taysom Hill ever gains a significant role, it’ll be interesting to see which position(s) he’s eligible for in fantasy. If he’s given eligibility at multiple positions, he’d gain extra value as a player who you could use as a flex and backup quarterback.

3. Los Angeles Rams

          1. Todd Gurley

          2A. Robert Woods

          2B. Brandin Cooks

          4. Cooper Kupp

          5A. Darrell Henderson

          5B. Malcolm Brown

          7. Gerald Everett

          8. Josh Reynolds??

          The core of this group is going into their third year together, giving us a good idea of how the pecking order is going to shake out. Gurley, even with reduced touches, is going to be the clear top dog. He’s falling down draft boards a bit more than he should. If you can get him with your second pick, he’s likely to end up a steal. Just be sure to grab Henderson as insurance. Malcolm Brown is likely to see time too. Kupp avoided the PUP, but it’s still possible that he could see reduced snaps to start the year as he works his way back from a torn ACL. He was looking like Goff’s favorite target and he could rise back to that 2A slot by season’s end. His value will likely increase as the season carries on. Keep an eye on whether Everett or Reynolds takes a step forward while Kupp works his way back into form.

4. Los Angeles Chargers

          1. Melvin Gordon

          2. Keenan Allen

          3A. Mike Williams

          3B. Hunter Henry

          3C. Austin Ekeler

          6. Justin Jackson??

          With Melvin Gordon in the picture, the Chargers’ pecking order is almost identical to the Saints’ – a stud RB and WR, and then a TE, second WR, and backup RB all rotating on a weekly basis as the 3^rd option in the pecking order. The thing is, it’s looking more and more likely that Melvin Gordon won’t be in the picture this year. You can’t justify taking him in the first two or even three rounds if he isn’t under contract by the time you draft. If Gordon does hold out into the season, or is traded, that would make Mike Williams the 2^nd most important player in a potential top-5 offense. He could really go crazy. Austin Ekeler would become as valuable as the James White/Tarik Cohen type of receiving backs. Justin Jackson – who averaged 4.1 yards per-carry and 9 yards per-reception as a rookie – would carry flex value and would have the potential to leap Ekeler, Henry, and maybe even Williams in the pecking order if he were to run well enough. He’s a great high-upside option late in drafts.

5. New England Patriots

          1A. Julian Edelman

          1B. Sony Michel

          1C. James White

          1D. Josh Gordon??

          5. (4. w/out Gordon) N’Keal Harry/Jacobi Meyers/Demaryius Thomas/??

          6. (5. w/out Gordon) Damien Harris/Rex Burkhead??

         

          New England is one of the most interesting situations for fantasy purposes. The list of questions surrounding this offense goes on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and, well, you get the point… Is Julian Edelman going to lead this offense or are they going to turn to Sony Michel and the running game? Is Michel going to stay healthy? If he does, is he going to separate himself from James White or is White going to be just as heavily involved as he was last year? How much of a role is Damien Harris going to have? What about Rex Burkhead? How does the WR corps shake out after Edelman? Is there going to be a TE worth using? And what about that guy Josh Gordon?

          The complete lack of clarity is depressing the ADP for everyone not named Julian Edelman, meaning there’s the potential for all of the other guys to provide a solid return on investment. Just look at the top-4 options on some of the other similarly ranked offenses, like the Chargers, Saints, Rams, Colts, and Browns… Most of the top options on those teams are going in the first round or two, with the second and third in the pecking order going anywhere from the 2^nd to the 6^th round, and the fourth player in the pecking order going anywhere from the 6^th to the 10^th round. Then, look at the Patriots... On average, Edelman is going in the 4^th round. White and Michel are going in the 5^th. Gordon’s going around the 8^th. Harry and Meyers are practically going undrafted. If New England is a top-10 offense, like we expect them to be, it’s likely that almost all of these guys are going to outperform their ADP’s.

6. Indianapolis Colts

          1. T.Y. Hilton

          2. Marlon Mack

          3A. Eric Ebron

          3B. Jack Doyle

          3C. Parris Campbell

          3D. Devin Funchess

          7. Nyheim Hines/Jordan Wilkins??

          It’s still the Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton show in Indy. Beyond that, this team is still trying to develop an identity. Marlon Mack should step forward as a clear 2^nd option to Hilton, but will they continue to take him off the field in short-yardage and passing situations? Are Hines and Wilkins roles going to shrink from last year or remain the same? Ebron goes into the season as the 3A, but Jack Doyle should steal some of his reception and yardage volume, and Funchess should steal some of his touchdown volume, so be careful of overdrafting him. Funchess was beaten out by Curtis Samuel last year, so we are fully expecting him to be leapfrogged by the talented Campbell this year. We ranked Campbell tentatively as 3C, but we wouldn’t be surprised at all if he quickly climbs higher. Heck, we’re willing to go as far as to say that Campbell’s even got the talent and potential to overtake Mack as the 2^nd most important skill player on the Colt’s. He could end up being a league-winner this year if he and Luck stay healthy.

7. Cleveland Browns

          1A. Odell Beckham Jr.

          1B. Nick Chubb

          3. Jarvis Landry

          4. Kareem Hunt??

          5. (4. For first 8 games) David Njoku

          6. (5. For first 8 games) Rashard Higgins

          7. Antonio Callaway

          We made it a point to list Nick Chubb as the 1B to OBJ’s 1A. Beckham is getting all the headlines, but Chubb was so good last year, that, if he runs the same way, he really should be featured every bit as much as Beckham. Heck, he could even be the 1A to Beckham’s 1B. The biggest question surrounding the Browns is obvious – how big of an impact is Kareem Hunt going to have when he returns from an 8-game suspension? We’re wary of players being able to jump right into a role mid-season, but if anyone can do it, a guy with Hunt’s talent is a good bet. Still, 9 weeks is just too long of a time with a hole burnt on your roster to justify spending anything other than one of your last picks on Hunt, who’s likely only coming back to a backup role anyways. However, Hunt is a sneaky pick in keeper leagues and could provide significant return on investment if he lands another team’s lead gig next year. If Hunt does earn touches behind Chubb when he returns this year, with OBJ and Landry hogging targets in the passing game, there will be little left for David Njoku. Still, the possibility exists that Chubb plays so well through the first 8 games that he keeps Hunt off the field upon his return, allowing Njoku to remain the 4^th option in the pecking order all season long. Instead of drafting Njoku as a starter, it makes more sense to draft him as a solid backup who could really emerge if anything were to happen to Beckham or Landry. Rashard Higgins has clearly outplayed Antonio Callaway for the 3^rd WR gig, and that fact has only been cemented by Callaway’s 4-game suspension to start the year. Higgins could have value in deeper leagues, and carries significant upside if Beckham or Landry were to go down.

8. Atlanta Falcons

          1. Julio Jones

          2A. Devonta Freeman

          2B. Calvin Ridley

          4A. Mohamed Sanu

          4B. Austin Hooper

          6. Ito Smith/Quadree Ollison/Brian Hill??

         

          This is Julio Jones’ offense, and Atlanta is a now committed to being a passing team. Maybe he’ll score a few more touchdowns this year. We are expecting Ridley to take a step forward and be every bit the 2^nd option that Freeman is, especially considering the Falcons may try to limit Freeman’s touches in a bid to protect his health. Mo’ Sanu and Hooper are likely to rotate as the 4^th option, capping each other’s upside unless the other goes down. Ito Smith is being drafted late amongst some high-upside RB’s, but we aren’t so sure his grip on the backup job is as firm as some drafters may be expecting. 

9. Pittsburgh Steelers

          1A. Juju Smith-Schuster

          1B. James Conner

          3A. James Washington??

          3B. Vance McDonald??

          3C. Donte Moncreif??

          3D. Jaylen Samuels??

          3E. Diontae Johnson??

          8. Benny Snell Jr.

         

          JuJu and James Conner are going to dominate touches for this team. Nobody really knows how the pecking order is going to shake out after that. Every one of the guys listed has massive potential if they were to claim the 3^rd slot in the pecking order, but there’s also the potential that nobody does and that the ball is simply spread around amongst the remaining players. The WR’s are all worth a dart throw at their current ADP’s, especially James Washington, who has the highest upside of the three going late. People are drafting McDonald to be a starter in fantasy, and he has massive upside if he does take control of the 3^rd slot in the pecking order and absorb some of Jesse James and Antonio Brown’s targets. But, there’s also the potential that Samuels, who played TE in college, is used more as a receiver this year in the absence of Jesse James. McDonald’s no lock to just automatically inherent that volume that James left behind, and we can’t just assume that Antonio Brown’s targets are going to go to him either. This is his 7^th season in the league, and last year was his first season over 400 yards, when he finished with 610, so keep that in mind when setting your expectations. He’s worth a pick as your starting TE, based on the total lack of options at the position, but you should probably draft two TE’s if you do go with him as your starter. Samuels is an intriguing pick as an extremely high-upside “handcuff,” but he makes more sense as a pick for Conner owners. Don’t forget about Snell. He could have value as well if Conner does miss any time.

10. Green Bay Packers

          1. Davante Adams

          2. Aaron Jones

          3A. Marques Valdes-Scantling??

          3B. Geronimo Allison??

          3C. Jimmy Graham/Jace Sternberger??

          6. Jamaal Williams/Dexter Williams??

          7. Equinemious St. Brown

          There’s not a whole lot behind Adams and Jones, which means that each is due for a ton of volume this year. Valdes-Scantling has the talent to become the clear 3^rd option, but is he going to put it all together this early in his career? How is Allison going to fare in his return from injury? Is Graham going to rebound or is he going to continue to spiral downward? Could the rookie Sternberger – a third round pick – steal the starting job from Graham? Which Williams would step up if Aaron Jones went down? And is St. Brown – who flashed at times as a rookie – going to be involved? Everybody has an opinion but nobody really knows.

         

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

          1. Mike Evans

          2A. Chris Godwin

          2B. OJ Howard

          4A. Peyton Barber??

          4B. Ronald Jones??

          6. Cameron Brate??

          7. Breshad Perriman??

          This team is going to pass, pass, pass, and then pass some more. You know what you’re getting out of Mike Evans at this point – a legit WR1. The real question is – just how good are Chris Godwin and OJ Howard going to be? The sky is the limit for both. Godwin could end up a WR1 himself and Howard has the potential to join the top tier of TE’s (Kelce, Kittle, & Ertz.) Ronald Jones could take the starting job from Peyton Barber, but he’s still not likely to be better than 4^th in the pecking order. It’s hard to tell whether Cameron Brate will be relevant or whether a third receiver will step up out of nowhere. Brate is certainly getting paid as if he’ll maintain at least somewhat of a significant role. He’s an intriguing dart throw for those who miss completely on TE, as he’d become extremely valuable if Howard were to go down. He was able to score 6 TD’s last year and he may see additional targets with DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries out of the picture.

12. San Francisco 49ers

          1. George Kittle

          2A. Tevin Coleman

          2B. Matt Breida

          4A. Dante Pettis??

          4B. Deebo Samuel??

          4C. Jalen Hurd/Trent Taylor??

          7. Jerick McKinnon??

          George Kittle is probably just as good of a player as Travis Kelce and there’s really no reason why he can’t equal him in fantasy. He’s absolutely worth a third-round pick. If he’s as productive as last year, he’ll be worth a second rounder. If Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida are anywhere close to as productive of a combo as Devonta Freeman and Coleman were under Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta, both will be massive steals at their current ADP’s, especially Breida, who you can get after the 10th round. This offense should easily support two runningbacks in fantasy, and if Breida runs like he did last year – when he averaged 5.3 yards per-carry – he could legitimately end up as the lead back. Coleman is a solid pick as well and is the more “prototypical” back, at 6’1” and 220 pounds, but that didn’t stop him from being beaten out by the smaller Freeman in Atlanta, so don’t just assume he’ll beat out Breida because he’s bigger. Even if he is beaten out by Breida for the lead role, he shouldn’t be any less valuable than he was as a second fiddle to Freeman in Atlanta. He’s absolutely worth his ADP.

          Under Shanahan, with Jimmy G back and a stable of capable backup quarterbacks, this offense should be vastly improved, yet not a single San Francisco WR is going before Round 8, and only Pettis is going before Round 10. It’s likely all of the WR’s will outperform their draft day values. Samuel and Hurd could both surprise as rookies in a pecking order that is up for grabs. McKinnon has upside, but those who draft him will probably drop him early in the year as he slowly works his way into the rotation behind two established backs. There’s no reason for San Fran to give him significant touches over Coleman and Breida right now.

13. Chicago Bears

          1A. Tarik Cohen

          1B. David Montgomery

          3. Allen Robinson

          4A. Trey Burton??

          4B. Anthony Miller??

          6A. Taylor Gabriel

          6B. Mike Davis

          8. Cordarelle Patterson??

          This team is going to flow through it’s runningbacks. It’s likely that Tarik Cohen is the star of the show early in the year before the team starts to lean more and more on the rookie Montgomery as the year winds down. Allen Robinson is the focal point of the passing game, but the ball is going to get spread around, and we’re not really sure whether Mitch Trubisky is going to look to Trey Burton or Anthony Miller more as the second receiving option. Burton should separate himself from Adam Shaheen, and Miller should separate himself from Taylor Gabriel, but it remains to be seen how much they actually will. We don’t know if Cordarelle Patterson will have a role on offense, but he could. One thing is clear – this team has a lot of mouths to feed.

14. Minnesota Vikings

          1A. Adam Theilen

          1B. Dalvin Cook

          1C. Stefon Diggs

          4. Kyle Rudolph

          5. Irv Smith Jr.??

          6A. Alexander Mattison??

          6B. Chad Beebe/Laquon Treadwell??

          There’s a lot of upside with the top 3 options here because so much of the offense is going to be funneled through them. There’s unlikely to be a third receiver that matters, and the backup runningbacks are probably not going to see a lot of time. If this becomes a 2TE offense, it should benefit Dalvin Cook even more, although it would likely limit Rudolph’s upside. It’s unlikely Smith holds value this year, but he is a receiving tight end, so if any one of the two tight ends is asked to block, it’s likely to be Rudolph. You can stash Mattison but don’t assume he’s automatically going to have the gig to himself if Cook goes down.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

          1. Zach Ertz

          2A. Miles Sanders??

          2B. Alshon Jeffery

          2C. Jordan Howard??

          5A. Dallas Goedert

          5B. Desean Jackson

          7. Darren Sproles/Josh Adams/Corey Clement/Wendell Smallwood??

          8. JJ Arcega-Whiteside/Nelson Agholor??

          There’s a lot more talent in Philadelphia this year than last year, so even though Zach Ertz is going to remain the focal point, he’s almost certainly going to see reduced volume. Sanders is probably going to be the guy who leads a jumbled runningback rotation, and Jeffery’s going to be the guy who leads a crowded receiver corps, but neither of them is going to be featured. Goedert is the real wildcard and could force the team to turn into a 2TE offense. He had 4 games last year – as a rookie – with double-digit fantasy points and could easily become relevant in fantasy this year at a shallow TE position. DeSean Jackson has a high-ceiling, but the team’s insistence on spreading the ball around is going to make it near impossible for him to reach it on a consistent basis. This team has a ton of mouths to feed.

16. Houston Texans

          1. Deandre Hopkins

          2A. Lamar Miller

          2B. Will Fuller??

          2C. Duke Johnson

          2D. Keekee Coutee??

          6. Jordan Akins/Jordan Thomas??

          This team is severely lacking in playmakers, which means that there’s a real opportunity for Lamar Miller, Duke Johnson, Will Fuller, and Keekee Coutee to all outperform their ADP’s. It’s basically going to be 5 guys (other than Deshaun Watson) who touch the ball for this team, and that’s if Fuller and Coutee stay healthy, which they’ve struggled to do. Fuller is loaded with upside, but you can’t draft him as a starter in fantasy with his injury history. Coutee could provide value even if Fuller stays healthy. This team is going to need him to touch the ball. The same goes for Miller – even if Duke Johnson overtakes him in the pecking order, this team is still going to need him to touch the ball.  

17. Seattle Seahawks

          1A. Chris Carson

          1B. Tyler Lockett

          3. Rashad Penny

          4A. David Moore??

          4B. D.K. Metcalf??

          4C. Nick Vannett??

          4D. Will Disly??

          8. C.J. Prosise/J.D. McKissic/Travis Homer/Bo Scarborough??

          There is so little talent outside of the top-3 options here that Rashad Penny doesn’t even need to steal the starting job from Chris Carson to hold value this season. He’s going to get his touches on this team. Carson himself is also due for significant volume no matter how Penny performs. Metcalf is worth a dart-throw, although Metcalf’s injury and David Moore could complicate Metcalf’s fantasy prospects in a run-first offense. Disly looked to be worthy of a spot on fantasy rosters last year before going down to injury, but it’s more likely that he’ll be stuck in a committee as he works to regain his form. We know Seattle will probably involve a third runningback at some point, and if one of Carson or Penny goes down, that third back could step into a significant role. Keep an eye on who wins that competition.

18. Arizona Cardinals

          1. David Johnson

          2A. Larry Fitzgerald

          2B. Christian Kirk

          4A. KeeSean Johnson??

          4B. Andy Isabella??

          6. Ricky Seals-Jones

          David Johnson is going to be the focal point of this offense and is an obvious bounce-back candidate. Christian Kirk is only getting better while Larry Fitz is only getting older, but the two are likely to hold similar value this year, and Fitzgerald could easily end up as the more productive of the two. In what’s shaping up to be one of the pass-happiest offenses in the league, both are great values at their current ADP’s. Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s history of using 4WR sets means that Seals-Jones is likely to be less involved, and that rookies KeeSean Johnson, Andy Isabella, and Hakeem Butler all have a chance to hold value.

(EDIT – Hakeem Butler was injured and placed on I.R. The team just signed Michael Crabtree. Keep an eye on him, as he will be on the field for the majority of snaps if he is able to beat out even one of the two rookies.)

19. Carolina Panthers

          1. Christian McCaffery

          2. DJ Moore

          3. Curtis Samuel??

          4. Greg Olsen??

          5. Chris Hogan/Torrey Smith??

          6. Ian Thomas??

          Christian McCaffery is going to be option 1, 2, and 3. After that, DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel should both see a good chunk of volume, and both are likely to be involved in the run game as well. Samuel should be the clear third option, or he could even end up the 2B to Moore’s 2A if he plays well enough. Worst case scenario, he ends up the 3B to Greg Olsen’s 3A. Don’t just write Olsen off, because Cam Newton has shown in the past that a healthy Olsen is one of his favorite targets, even if there are other talented players on the team. Olsen could force the pecking order into a 2A, B, and C situation behind McCaffery if he maintains his health.

         

20. Baltimore Ravens

          1A. Mark Ingram

          1B. Lamar Jackson

          3A. Gus Edwards??

          3B. Willie Snead??

          3C. Mark Andrews??

          3D. Marquise Brown??

          7. Justice Hill

          8. Hayden Hurst

          This is the only team where we have the quarterback listed as part of the skill players’ pecking order. Lamar Jackson is going to run the ball so often and steal so many touches from the skill players that it needs to be factored into the equation. He averaged 17 rushes per-game in his 7 regular-season starts as a rookie. Baltimore is going to run, run, run, run, fake the pass, run, and then run it again, meaning it’s shaping up to be the Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram show. Ingram is being especially undervalued, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be going at least as high in fantasy as similar run-first backs like Leonard Fournette, Derrick Henry, and Marlon Mack, if not before them. Beyond Ingram and Jackson, the pecking order is up for grabs, and the ball is likely to be spread around. There probably isn’t going to be another Raven who holds any real value, although Andrews is the best bet at a shallow TE position. Gus Edwards is definitely going to be involved, and even Justice Hill is an intriguing “handcuff” option. Both have the potential to become the “star” of the show alongside Jackson if Ingram were to go down. Even if Ingram stays healthy, the Ravens are going to run the ball so much that two runningbacks could easily hold value.

21. Cincinnati Bengals

          1. Joe Mixon

          2A. Tyler Boyd

          2B. A.J. Green??

          4. Tyler Eifert/C.J. Uzomah??

          5A. Gio Bernard

          5B. John Ross/Cody Core/Alex Erickson??

         

          Going into this year, we knew it was no longer going to be A.J. Green’s team. His offseason foot injury and surgery a few weeks ago only cemented that fact. This is Joe Mixon’s team now, and, even with Green, Mixon’s due for a ton of volume. Mixon is likely to end up amongst the league leaders in total touches, especially if Green does miss extended time. Don’t be surprised if he clears 350 rushes + receptions. There’s so little depth on this team that they are going to need him to carry that kind of load – John Ross has been a disappointment so far in his career and the receivers behind him are special-teamers. Gio Bernard will maintain his change-of-pace role, but other than Tyler Boyd and the rickety crickety Green, the only known playmaker in the passing game is Tyler Eifert, and he’s just one good hard sneeze away from another trip to the IR (in all fairness to Eifert, that ankle injury last year was nasty! But the fact is the guy just can’t ever stay healthy.) Be ready to scoop up Uzomah off the waiver wire if (and, unfortunately, likely when) Eifert goes down.

         

22. Detroit Lions

          1A. Kerryon Johnson

          1B. Kenny Golladay

          3. Marvin Jones

          4A. TJ Hockenson??

          4B. CJ Anderson??

          4C. Danny Amendola??

         

          The release of Theo Riddick signals that the coaching staff is ready to center the offense around Kerryon Johnson. His ADP is steadily climbing towards the back end of the 2^nd round because he could easily be this year’s “breakout” RB. Golladay could also be this year’s “breakout” WR, but the team’s run-first/defensive-minded tendencies are going to make a true “breakout” difficult for him. Jones is likely to outproduce his ADP, but the presence of Amendola and Hockenson limits his upside. Interestingly, Johnson’s ADP has risen since the release of Theo Riddick, but CJ Anderson’s has remained relatively unchanged. We aren’t sure why that is. Anderson is worth a dart throw late as the likely second back in what figures to be one of the league’s run-heaviest offenses. He could be an absolute steal if he runs like he did last year for the Rams.

23. Dallas Cowboys

          1. Ezekiel Elliot??

          2. Amari Cooper

          3A. Michael Gallup??

          3B. Randall Cobb??

          5. Blake Jarwin/Jason Witten??

          6. Tony Pollard??

          Le’Veon Bell taught us last year that there is a lot of risk in drafting a player in the midst of a holdout and just assuming he’ll be back by the beginning of the season. Hopefully, Zeke and the Cowboys are able to work a deal out soon because it is going to be risky taking Elliot in the first 2 rounds if he’s unsigned by the time your Draft rolls around. He could easily be a steal if he slides in your Draft and ends up signing, but still, you should probably prioritize drafting rookie Tony Pollard as well if you do draft Elliot. Amari Cooper is the clear second option in Dallas and is likely going to be the only usable piece in the receiving game. The combination of Michael Gallup and Cole Beasley was pretty useless for fantasy purposes last year and it’s unlikely that the combo of Gallup and Cobb is any different this year. If either does maintain any value, it’s more likely to be Gallup than Cobb, as he has an established relationship with Dak Prescott and started to come on a bit down the stretch last year, averaging 10 fantasy points per-game over his last 7 games.

         

24. Oakland Raiders

          1. Antonio Brown

          2. Josh Jacobs

          3. Tyrell Williams

          4. Doug Martin/Jalen Richard??

          5. Darren Waller??

          6. Hunter Renfrow??

          If Antonio Brown can find some moisturizer and maybe a new pair of cleats for his terribly cracked feet (have you seen those pictures!? Gross!) he could see even more volume than he did in Pittsburgh. He’s a good bet to lead the league in targets. There’s that little surrounding talent on this team. Josh Jacobs also figures to be given as much as he can handle, with only “Muscle Hamster” Doug Martin and Jalen Richard behind him on the depth chart. Tyrell Williams should see a career high in targets and Darren Waller is the type of TE (converted WR) who has the potential to pop in fantasy. This defense is going to be BADDDD again, with all-caps and 4 D’s – so there’s certainly some potential for Oakland to rack up garbage fantasy points late in games this year – similar to the way the Buccaneers did last year.

25. New York Jets

          1. Le’Veon Bell

          2A. Robby Anderson??

          2B. Quincy Enunwa??

          2C. Chris Herndon IV??

          2D. Jamison Crowder

          2E. Ty Montgomery

          The one thing that worries us about this offense is that Coach Adam Gase’s offense was the slowest in the league last year, with just 54.9 offensive plays per-game. That means Le’Veon Bell is probably not going to reach the heights he reached in Pittsburgh, although it’s possible that the lack of surrounding talent on this roster keeps his volume close to what we’ve been used to. We should also probably cool the hype on Robby Anderson and Chris Herndon a bit. Even if they do take a step forward as players, fewer plays per-game is going to equate to fewer opportunities for them to score fantasy points. Gase is definitely going to need to speed up his offense in order for these players to realize their potential.

26. Denver Broncos

          1. Phillip Lindsay

          2A. Emmanuel Sanders??

          2B. Courtland Sutton

          2C. Royce Freeman??

          4B. Noah Fant??

          6. DaeSean Hamilton/Tim Patrick??

         

          Lindsay is likely going to lead this offense. Everything is up for grabs after that. Sanders could be that 2A, but it’s possible he’s overtaken by Sutton this year. Sutton, Freeman, and Fant all have potential. Sutton might be a really good NFL player, but Joe Flacco’s tendency to funnel his targets towards runningbacks and tight-ends puts a cap on his ceiling for this year. Freeman could land anywhere from 1A-4C. Worst case, he falls behind Fant in the pecking order and is a sparsely-used backup. Best case, he becomes the 1B to Lindsay’s 1A, or even overtakes Lindsay and becomes the 1A himself. Fant has a solid chance of an Evan Engram-type rookie breakout. It’s not out of the realm for him to narrowly become Joe Flacco’s top target and climb to the 2A spot in the pecking order. He’s a great late-round dart throw at TE.

27. New York Giants

          1. Saquon Barkley

          2A. Evan Engram??

          2B. Sterling Shepard??

          2C. Golden Tate??

          5. Cody Latimer

          This offense is going to go as far as Saquon Barkley takes it and not much further. Last year it became abundantly clear that Eli Manning was utterly incapable of throwing the football more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Manning’s numbers didn’t look terrible on paper, but it was difficult to watch, and the Giant’s win total reflected it. He literally caused my eyes to bleed on multiple occasions (ok, maybe not literally, but it seemed like they were going to!) It’s likely going to be tough to watch this Giants offense again (minus the Saquon Barkley highlights) as long as Eli is behind center. Still, Shepard, Tate, and Engram could provide sneaky PPR value in an offense that appears destined to rely on a multitude of short passes. Engram in particular could be in for a big year with all of the issues the Giants have at WR. He’s got the potential to climb up into that upper-TE tier. Tate’s 4 game suspension has caused his ADP to drop into the late-rounds, and that could actually be a blessing in disguise for those who wait on WR.

28. Washington Redskins

          1B. Derrius Guice

          1A. Adrian Peterson

          3. Jordan Reed

          4A. Trey Quinn??

          4B. Josh Doctson/Terry McLaurin??

          4C. Chris Thompson??

           

          Derrius Guice has the lowest ADP of any RB that sits atop his respective team’s pecking order, outside of LeSean McCoy in Buffalo. That means he’s more than likely going to outperform his draft slot, although the presence of Adrian Peterson and other capable backups means he likely won’t outperform it by much. Guice is going to have to play really well to keep the other guys off the field. None of the receivers here are being drafted before the 12^th round, which means at least one of them is going to end up being a steal, especially if Jordan Reed fails to play 16 games. Our best bet is on Quinn establishing himself as a PPR value, but don’t sleep on McLaurin, who has a lot of talent, and speed. Doctson is either going to end up breaking through this year or he’s going to get benched entirely. He’s at that stage with the team. We wouldn’t count on a breakthrough. Chris Thompson always seems to provide PPR value when he’s healthy, but is he the same player after all of those injuries?

29. Miami Dolphins

          1A. Kenyan Drake??

          1B. Kalen Ballage??

          3. Kenny Stills

          4A. Devante Parker/Preston Williams??

          4B. Albert Wilson??

          4C. Mike Gesicki??

          The Dolphin’s offense could actually surprise this year. Adam Gase and his snail-pace offense is gone. Chad Shea comes over from New England to call plays. Even if Ryan Fitz is not so magic, he and Josh Rosen are likely to be a more productive combination than Ryan Tannehill & Brock Osweiler were last season. If Fitz does have some magic left, there are going to be a few Dolphins who end up as major steals in fantasy, most notably – Ballage. Tell me, how many other RB’s going after Round 10 can you pencil in for 150 touches? I’ll tell you, there’s not many – Ballage, Peyton Barber, Dion Lewis, and Matt Breida, and maybe Frank Gore, if you want to include him – that’s it. Those are the only RB’s going after Round 10 who have a clear path (which doesn’t require an injury to another player) to 150 touches. Ballage has the lowest ADP of them all, yet he’s got probably the best chance of those guys at seizing his team’s starting gig. He’s being criminally underrated in drafts this year.

30. Tennessee Titans

          1. Derrick Henry

          2A. Dion Lewis

          2B. Corey Davis

          2C. Delanie Walker

          5A. Adam Humphries??

          5C. AJ Brown/Taywan Taylor??

         

          This could easily turn back into a 1A/1B situation with Henry and Lewis if Henry’s current foot ailment hinders him early in the season. Even if Henry seizes the lead job, Lewis isn’t going to fall beyond 2C, or, at worst, 4^th in the pecking order, making him a criminally underrated option on draft day. Lewis had over 200 touches last year and will probably get close again this year. Corey Davis has the talent to sit atop this team’s pecking order if Tennessee were a passing team, but unfortunately for him, they’re far from it. He’s got a relatively high floor but also a low ceiling as long as this team is employing Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill as their quarterbacks. The same goes for Walker.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars

          1. Leonard Fournette

          2. Dede Westbrook

          3A. Chris Conley??

          3B. Marquise Lee/ /DJ Chark/Keelan Cole/Terrelle Pryor??

          5. Geoff Swaim/Josh Oliver??

          Leonard Fournette played terribly last year, but he’s probably going to get even more volume this year. He’s as risky as they come, but he also carries league-winning upside as a 3^rd round pick, especially if he plays like he did as a rookie. That’s a big “if” at this point. Dede Westbrook is going as late in drafts as any other team’s No. 1 WR, outside of a few teams, like the Redskins, Dolphins, and Bills. He’s due to be a steal if he can even slightly increase his production from last year. It’s unlikely any of the other receivers carry consistent value, but we can’t rule out Lee, Conley, or Chark breaking through. Nick Foles has a history of emphasizing the TE position as well, which makes Swaim (and Oliver when he returns from injury) intriguing prospects at a shallow TE position.

32. Buffalo Bills

          1A. LeSean McCoy??

          1B. Frank Gore

          3A. John Brown??

          3B. Cole Beasley??

          3C. Devin Singletary/TJ Yeldon??

          3D. Zay Jones??

          One of these RB’s is going to lead the way for the team and be a steal in fantasy. It remains to be seen which RB that is going to be. The touches are likely to be split and none of them are likely to be great, but they are being drafted so late that at least one of them is going to provide more value than their ADP will cost. McCoy is a cut candidate, but with each passing day, you have to wonder – why wouldn’t they have already cut him if that was their plan? If he’s on the roster, he’s going to be at the top of the pecking order on a team that has an improved offensive line and dedication to running the football. There’s certainly a great deal of risk to drafting McCoy because he could be cut late, but he won’t cost much on draft day, and the return on investment could be huge. It’s not clear who would inherent the job if McCoy were cut, but Singletary, Gore, and Yeldon would all be worth fliers, with Singletary having the upside to possibly lead his team’s pecking order as a rookie. But we all know what old man Gore would have to say about that, so temper your expectations with Singletary if McCoy is cut.

          John Brown is the wildcard here. He’s likely going to lead this receiving corps, and there’s a good chance he finishes with 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015. In Joe Flacco’s 9 starts last year, John Brown averaged 3.8 receptions for 66.7 yards (17.7 yards per-catch) and .44 touchdowns per-game. He averaged exactly 13 fantasy points per-game in those 9 starts. If Flacco had started 16 games, at that pace, Brown would have finished with 60 receptions for 1,068 yards and 7 touchdowns, and 208 fantasy points. That would have made him WR20, just behind Tyler Lockett (WR19) and Jarvis Landry (WR18.) He could easily duplicate that this year now that he’s paired with Josh Allen, who has one of the strongest arms in the league. Brown’s ADP is creeping up from the 14^th round into the 13^th, and we suspect soon it’ll creep into the 12^th, but that’s still far too low if he produces anything like he did last year with Flacco. Beasley could end up providing value in deeper PPR leagues but has an extremely limited ceiling.