Why You Should Avoid 1-for-1 Trades of the Same Position

          A 1-for-1 trade offer of the same position (in a redraft format) is like offering someone an opportunity to be wrong.

Assuming both players are healthy, and bye-week usage isn’t a part of the pitch, why would someone offer to swap two players of the same position unless they thought you had the better player, and that they’d be better off with your player on their roster instead of their own?

 

It’s like having someone come to you and say:

 

“Hey, you got a 10, wanna swap for my 9?”

Uhm, no…

 

Even if you DO wanna swap because you think that their guy is actually the 10 & your guy is actually the 9, why would you let them know that?

 

They are straight up telling you that they value your positional player more than their own – that’s leverage.

 

Play stupid. Exploit it.

 

For example, if your opponent comes to you & offers their Kenyan Drake for your Joe Mixon, and you prefer Drake, don't tell them that! At least not right away!

They obviously value YOUR Mixon > THEIR Drake, otherwise they wouldn’t have offered to swap the two straight up.

 

So play along, even if you think THEIR Drake > YOUR Mixon.

Play dumb, counter:

“If my Mixon is worth more than your Drake, like your offer suggests, you’re going to have to give me a little something extra to make the swap.”

Ask to make it a 2-for-2 where they swap 3^rd WR’s… backup TE’s… 3^rd QB’s… defenses… hell, anything.

 

At the very least you have to ask – to ask for some sort of sweetener, because they obviously value your positional player more.

 

If they won’t budge & refuse to include anything on top of Drake to make the swap, you can always just say:

“Fine, screw it. I’ll take the original 1-for-1 offer.”

It’s very unlikely that someone who came to you offering a 1-for-1 trade of the same position is going to change their mind about their willingness to execute that offer – even if you push them to give you more first.

 

So generally, assume a 1-for-1 trade offer of the same position will still be on the table – even if you push for it to become a 2-for-2, as long as your timely with the negotiation.

That means there’s really nothing to lose pushing for a 2-for-2, even if you're willing to take the 1-for-1.

 

With that being said, if the original 1-for-1 offer for players of the same position is coming out of left field from someone who:

- isn’t active or responsive

- you have no open line of communication with

or

- you can’t depend on to either respond to a negotiation or not make multiple offers to other teams...

Then ya, maybe don't risk losing a 1-for-1 of the same position that’s been offered & you're ready to accept. But, if you have any sort of open line of communication with someone & can at least somewhat trust that they’ll hear you out before moving onto the next person, always try and leverage a 1-for-1 trade of the same position that’s been offered into a 2-for-2, even if you're willing to accept the original 1-for-1 that’s been offered.

Making The Case Against Making Trade Offers Post-Week 1

            Now that the first week’s waiver claims have been processed, you’re probably thinking about heading to the trade market & putting out some offers…

But that might not be such a good idea…

Here’s my case against making trade offers post-Week 1:

 

-        No leverage

            One of the most important factors in being able to craft a successful trade is being able to exploit leverage. When your opponent has a clear positional weakness, they are more likely to overpay for your assets at that position. The problem is, there’s almost no leverage to exploit post-Week 1. Unless your opponent drafted MT, OBJ, and Deebo, or both James Conner & Le’Veon Bell, there probably isn’t a whole lot of positional leverage to exploit.

 

-        No panic

            This goes hand in hand with “no leverage.” Even if a player’s team underperformed or got injured in Week 1, they still probably aren’t panicking about it yet. Hayden Hurst had a bad Week 1, but nobody who rosters him is going out & overpaying for another TE based off one bad week.

Have patience, let the bad weeks stack up, attrition set in, and then capitalize when the panic meter has risen.

 

-        Potentially Sabotaging Future Negotiations

            This is probably the most important factor in why you should try to avoid sending out trade offers post-Week 1. Because the panic meter & leverage levels are still relatively low, you could be sending out an offer post-Week 1 that gets rejected, that would have otherwise been accepted had you waited 2 more weeks to send it. Now, instead of sending that offer Week 3, and starting there, you go into Week 3 making an offer that the other person already rejected. This makes them less likely to accept that offer the second time because they have it in their subconscious that they already rejected that same offer once before.

 

            This doesn’t mean you should NEVER send out trade offers post-Week 1, because there are certain instances where a team gets hit hard Week 1 and does have a clear & glaring weakness that you can leverage & exploit. But if you don't have a CLEAR avenue to exploiting a weakness that jumps off the page, understand that most teams will reject offers post-Week 1 & choose to exercise patience. You’ll be better off for it in the long-run.

All-Fade List

The All-Fade List:

-        Dalvin Cook

-        Todd Gurley

-        Chris Carson

-        David Johnson

-        Mark Ingram

-        Adam Thielen

-        AJ Green

-        TY Hilton

-        Tyler Higbee

-        Marlon Mack

 

Dalvin Cook - Dalvin Cook has played in 28/48 games so far & you're taking him over RB's like Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, & Joe Mixon, who have played at least 14 games every year...

 

All so you can have just a 1-3 PPG advantage...

 

Think about that for a second.

 

Is it really worth it?

 

 

Todd Gurley – If you’ve already read this article I wrote on Todd Gurley, you probably could have guessed he was going to make my All-Fade list.

 

The risk just isn’t worth the reward in RD3. Just take Mark Andrews or Zach Ertz where you’d take Gurley & grab Raheem Mostert 2 rounds later instead.

 

 

Chris Carson – Read the tea leaves... the team drafted Deejay Dallas in RD4 & then went out & signed Carlos Hyde… 

 

They don’t trust Carson’s health – and why should they?

 

He hasn’t played a full season since his senior year of high-school…

 

 

David Johnson – A soon-to-be 29-year old RB who hasn’t averaged over 3.7 YPC or 1.8 yards after-contact in 3 straight seasons… who’s fantasy ceiling is dependent upon targets to complement his below-average rushing efficiency… on a team with another RB who will steal targets… at a RD4 asking price?

 

NO. THANK. YOU.

 

 

Mark Ingram – Only 202 carries in 15 games last year, but buoyed by 15 TD’s – including 5 receiving – on just 26 receptions. Throw J.K. Dobbins, an improving Gus Edwards, a healthy Hollywood, and rookie Devin Duvernay into the mix… & Ingram will be lucky to hit 8 TD’s & 20 receptions this year. That kind of TD-dependency just isn’t worth a 5^th or 6^th round asking price. Take D’Andre Swift instead.

 

 

Adam Thielen – Thielen is probably the guy I’m most concerned about fading, outside of Dalvin Cook. I was all-in on him last year & it’s not hard to envision a sky-high ceiling for him again in 2020.

But this is an offense that just doesn’t project to be built on the pass anywhere near the level it was when Thielen excelled in 2018 (466 attempts last year compared to 606 attempts in 2018) & you can fall in love with any WR ranked 7-25.

 

Are you sure you want to fall in love with the 30-year old with just two 1,000-yard seasons on his resume & recent soft-tissue injuries?

 

 

TY Hilton & AJ Green – Again, why are you taking risks (WR26 ADP for Hilton & WR28 ADP for Green) on 30+ year old WR’s with recent injury issues when there’s still high-upside WR youth left on the board (like Stefon Diggs at WR27, Michael Gallup at WR29, Hollywood at WR30, Tyler Boyd at WR32, Brandin Cooks at WR36, Darius Slayton at WR39, Diontae Johnson at WR40, & CeeDee Lamb at WR40?)

 

Some risks just aren’t worth taking.

 

 

Tyler Higbee – According to FantasyPros, Tyler Higbee is currently going as TE7 at 69 overall ADP in .5PPR leagues – the back-end of the 6^th round & ahead of TE’s like Evan Engram & Hayden Hurst… this is absolutely baffling to me – for many reasons…

 

 

Marlon Mack – Marlon Mack was already a TD-dependent fantasy option. Now, with superfreak Jonathan Taylor in town, Mack can expect his 8 rushing TD’s from last year to be cut in half. With no receiving role to buffer that loss – that leaves Mack as nothing more than a TD-dependent, unpredictable, and thus relatively useless handcuff. He should NOT be going ahead of high-upside RB’s like Antonio Gibson, Zack Moss, or Tony Pollard.

Shifting Narratives

 

- Miles Sanders & Kenyan Drake were redraft values. Now they’re injury risks.

 

- JT could be had in RD3 or 4, now you’re lucky to get him with the last pick in RD2

 

- Keenan Allen & Hunter Henry were overvalued, now they might be undervalued.

 

- Devin Singletary was BUF’s starter, now it might be Zack Moss

 

- Tevin Coleman was SF’s RB2, now it might be Jerick McKinnon

 

- Ke’Shawn Vaughn was a trendy sleeper, now he’s a joke.

 

- Logan Thomas was a joke. Now he’s a trendy sleeper...

 

Don’t get caught in take-lock & know when to let go!

 

The narratives, they are a changin!

10-ROUND ADP PICK’EM

 

       

          Sometimes, you can only choose one option or the other. Here are the hills I'm willing to die on:

 

RD1 – Derrick Henry > Dalvin Cook

RD2 – Austin Ekeler > Nick Chubb

RD3 – Jonathan Taylor > Todd Gurley

RD4 – DK Metcalf  > Courtland Sutton

RD5 – Raheem Mostert > Kareem Hunt

RD6 – D’Andre Swift > Mark Ingram

RD7 – Hollywood > AJ Green

RD8 – Hayden Hurst > Tyler Higbee

RD9 – Darius Slayton > Mecole Hardman

RD10 – Zack Moss > Marlon Mack & Kerryon

 

 

 

RD1 – Dalvin Cook vs Derrick Henry

 

          Cook may have the “ceiling” advantage, but it’s negligible, at best.

 

He averaged 21.9 PPG in his 13-game tear last year.

 

Derrick Henry averaged 21.1 PPG with Ryan Tannehill under center…

 

It’s the same production – so take the guy who’s played in 62/64 games & not the one who’s played in 28/48 & forces you to spend an 8^th rounder on his handcuff.

 

Henry > Cook

 

 

 

RD2 – Austin Ekeler vs Nick Chubb

 

          The case against Austin Ekeler is built on “regression,” but even if you applied a 17.5% reduction to his receptions, receiving yards, & receiving TD’s last year – he’d still have been RB7. Go ahead & project an even bigger dip – increasing rushing totals will buoy it, giving him a top-8 PPR floor barring health. Hard to see Chubb drastically topping that floor, at best, in any scenario where Kareem Hunt isn’t injured – especially considering the fact Chubb only finished as RB7 last year despite half a season without Hunt.

 

Ekeler > Chubb (PPR)

 

 

 

RD3 – Todd Gurley vs Jonathan Taylor

 

          Without even throwing the documented medical issues for Gurley into the equation, he’s just in a worse situation. He’s the 3^rd best player in an offense that hasn’t featured RB’s:

 

 ATL RB’s (combined rushing totals)

 

2018: 300/1,365/8

2019: 310/1,163/9

 

IND RB’s (combined rushing totals)

 

2018: 349/1,568/12

2019: 399/1832/13

 

          JT instantly becomes the best player in an offense that has previously featured lesser RB’s & the discrepancy in receiving totals between him & Gurley isn’t likely to be large enough to pass up the week (& league)-winning upside that JT possesses as your RB2 in RD3.

 

JT > Gurley

 

 

 

RD4 – Courtland Sutton vs DK Metcalf

         

          On one hand, you have a WR who’s his team’s top target – with a QB who’s passed for 30+ TD’s in 3 straight seasons & was 6^th in the NFL in passing yards last year.

 

          On the other hand, you have a WR who is also his team’s top target – but who’s QB averaged just 204 passing yards in 6 career starts – last year as a rookie…

 

          Projected improvement for Drew Lock aside – take the sure offense. DK is a freak in his own right & a Mike Evans/AJ Green-level Year 2 breakout is on the way.

 

DK > Sutton

 

 

RD5 – Raheem Mostert vs Kareem Hunt

 

          For the same reason I’m fading Chubb at an early-RD2 ADP, I’m fading Hunt at a RD5 ADP – the two are likely to cannibalize each other more than hopeful fantasy owners would like to believe.

 

If Chubb goes down – Hunt will have been worth the chance at that price.

 

But there’s just not a whole lot of room for carries behind Chubb (Hunt had 43 in 8 games last year) & some of the targets which Hunt’s RB2 value was so dependent on will likely be siphoned away this year. Don’t bet on him out-targeting the entire CLE TE corps like he did (37-32) in his 8 games last year – not with Austin Hooper, a healthy David Njoku, & a recently-drafted Harrison Bryant in town.

 

Gimme the RB who doesn’t need an injury in front of him for his scorching upside to be realized – the one who finished last year with 10+ fantasy points in 8 of his last 9 games, including 3 20+ games & a 50-burger.

 

Mostert > Hunt

 

 

 

RD6 – Mark Ingram vs D’Andre Swift

 

          As a Ravens fan – this one hurts me to type… but Mark Ingram is being severely overdrafted this year.

 

Only 202 carries & 26 receptions in 15 games last year, but buoyed by those 15 TD’s – including 5 receiving. He’ll be lucky to hit 8 this year.

 

JK Dobbins will eat into the little bit of receiving work he had & Gus Edwards will remain in the rotation to steal carries & possibly more red-zone work.

 

Swift – while a rookie – has a much safer receiving floor & tantalizing dual-threat upside.

 

Swift > Ingram

 

 

 

RD7 – AJ Green vs Marquise Brown

 

          You’re playing with a little bit of fire drafting either of these two – so it really comes down to, which is more likely to stay healthy?

 

Betting on a 32-year old WR who’s played in 9/32 games the past two years & is already dealing with more injuries this year just doesn’t feel right – especially when he’s on a team with a rookie QB & coaching staff that ran the team into the ground last year, and the alternative’s QB was MVP & the league-leader in passing TD’s last year…

 

Hollywood > AJG

 

 

RD8 – Tyler Higbee vs Hayden Hurst

 

          Hayden Hurst has everything Tyler Higbee has (& more):

-        Tantalizing Potential (Hooper paced for 92/968/7 last year as ATL's TE)

-        1^st RD Pedigree

-        Athleticism (4.67 40)

-        A League-Leading Passing Offense

-        2 Dope WR’s

 

But it’s what he doesn’t have that matters most:

-        A second TE who could steal anywhere from 35-50% of the snaps & routes.

 

Gimme the guy with the same top-5 upside & a clearer path to snaps, routes, and targets.

 

Hurst > Higbee

 

 

RD9 – Mecole Hardman vs Darius Slayton

 

          I know we like to beat up on Sammy Watkins – but he’s never played less than 8 games, has played 15, 10, & 14 games the past 3 years, and just re-signed on a 2-year deal. He’s a legitimate barrier to routes & targets for Mecole – even if Hardman doesn’t lose snaps & routes to Demarcus Robinson like he did as a rookie.

 

          Not even factoring in the addition of first-round RB CEH, it’s concerning that Hardman’s role dried up last year & he was given a glorified Tyreek Hill-handcuff role by the team once Reek healed from injury – and for that reason, I can’t justify taking him over Slayton – who fits the mold of a true No. 1 (6’1”/190, 4.39 40, 40.5” vertical) on a team that’s ready for one to emerge.

 

Slayton > Hardman

 

 

RD10 – Marlon Mack vs Kerryon Johnson vs Zack Moss

 

          I see two handcuffs & a potential starter…

 

Where the Colts & Lions went out & spent top-45 draft capital on two of the better RB prospects we’ve seen recently – the Bills only have Devin Singletary as a barrier to the starting role.

 

          Even if you like Devin Singletary as a player (I do), are any of us going to be surprised if this becomes a 50/50 “lightning & thunder” approach, with Moss soaking up all of Frank Gore’s 179 vacated touches – and perhaps then some?

 

I just don’t see a path to anywhere near 200 touches for Kerryon or Mack barring injury – and for that reason I’m willing to take a chance on the rookie.

 

Moss > Mack & Kerryon